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	<title>Comments on: Apocalometer</title>
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	<description>Involvements with reality</description>
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		<title>By: Lightning Round &#8211; 2015/01/21 &#124; Free Northerner</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-173181</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lightning Round &#8211; 2015/01/21 &#124; Free Northerner]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2015 07:12:26 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;]  We’re on the brink of collapse. Related: Apocalypse when? Related: 3 graphs. Related: The  boomer legacy. Related: 2084. [&#8230;]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;]  We’re on the brink of collapse. Related: Apocalypse when? Related: 3 graphs. Related: The  boomer legacy. Related: 2084. [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: pseudo-chrysostom</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-172450</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[pseudo-chrysostom]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jan 2015 04:13:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[the biggest problem with future ai is that in all likelyhood it will be consummate progressives programming it.

doubtlessly they will try to remove any possible margin of danger in their perspective, create some air-tight ideological box that will guarantee safety in any case. well, as the saying goes; the &#039;perfect&#039; is the enemy of the good.

as we have seen, it is those very attempts to make totalised, universal systems that wrap being up in a neat bow, the lionization of some contingent concept as the meterstick by which all matters can be weighed, the creation of an automised framework to be all things to all people, useable by any class of being, that are the most obdurate and heinous intellectual abortions. 

isint it just lovely, that very fear of destruction by ai, making it so much more certain.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>the biggest problem with future ai is that in all likelyhood it will be consummate progressives programming it.</p>
<p>doubtlessly they will try to remove any possible margin of danger in their perspective, create some air-tight ideological box that will guarantee safety in any case. well, as the saying goes; the &#8216;perfect&#8217; is the enemy of the good.</p>
<p>as we have seen, it is those very attempts to make totalised, universal systems that wrap being up in a neat bow, the lionization of some contingent concept as the meterstick by which all matters can be weighed, the creation of an automised framework to be all things to all people, useable by any class of being, that are the most obdurate and heinous intellectual abortions. </p>
<p>isint it just lovely, that very fear of destruction by ai, making it so much more certain.</p>
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		<title>By: Erebus</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-171018</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Erebus]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 18:13:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-171018</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No worries!  Best of luck.  If we&#039;re both still around here in four years, and if you&#039;ve decided to look for work instead of pursuing your master&#039;s degree, hit me up.  I might be able to help out, and I&#039;d at least put in a good word for you.  I&#039;ve actually done some business with ApNano in Israel before, and am considering using their tungsten sulfide nanotubes in a commercial composite product.  (Investigating the possibility, which can involve a whole lot of trial and error!)  They&#039;re good guys.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No worries!  Best of luck.  If we&#8217;re both still around here in four years, and if you&#8217;ve decided to look for work instead of pursuing your master&#8217;s degree, hit me up.  I might be able to help out, and I&#8217;d at least put in a good word for you.  I&#8217;ve actually done some business with ApNano in Israel before, and am considering using their tungsten sulfide nanotubes in a commercial composite product.  (Investigating the possibility, which can involve a whole lot of trial and error!)  They&#8217;re good guys.</p>
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		<title>By: Y.Ilan</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170962</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Y.Ilan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 15:51:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170962</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks a lot for your perspective! I&#039;m soon going to start studying at the Technion here in Israel, so obviously I&#039;m curious about the real world out there. Yeah, a second degree if not a PhD seems to be a must for the actual interesting stuff. which makes sense.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks a lot for your perspective! I&#8217;m soon going to start studying at the Technion here in Israel, so obviously I&#8217;m curious about the real world out there. Yeah, a second degree if not a PhD seems to be a must for the actual interesting stuff. which makes sense.</p>
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		<title>By: Erebus</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170955</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Erebus]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 15:29:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170955</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Of course I&#039;m not bothered!  

There are two general rules which apply right now:

-There are way more jobs in academy than there are in industry, unless you are Chinese or South Korean.  

(And I&#039;d add: If you somehow find work in China, the hours shall be long, the conditions poor, and the pay generally quite low.  You&#039;ll also be working mostly on process-development related issues, e.g. how to scale-up production &amp; find the easiest, cheapest ways to make basic nanomaterials.  As for Korea, Samsung is where much of the really interesting applied-nanotech research is going on right now, but their main research center is somewhere near Seoul, they require &quot;a master&#039;s degree with at least 5 years of work experience or a doctoral degree&quot;, and I hear that they do very little hiring of non-Korean nationals.)

-If you want an academic research job, the more credentialed you are, the better.  A Ph.D. with solid postdoc experience would be best.  You&#039;d be hard-pressed to find an interesting job with only a bachelor&#039;s degree.  If you manage to find anything at all, it&#039;ll involve drudgery like washing the glassware, running administrative errands for the research staff and postdocs, and making sure the dimethylformamide is stocked.  

&lt;a href=&quot;http://chemjobber.blogspot.hk/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Chemjobber&lt;/a&gt; is a blog that does a pretty good job of tracking the chemistry job market.  There are always &lt;i&gt;some&lt;/i&gt; B.S.-level chem jobs out there, but they&#039;re not very good, and they tend to have nothing to do with nanotechnology &lt;i&gt;per se&lt;/i&gt;.

Ah, anyway, materials science and organic chemistry would definitely be a good background to have.  Nanotechnology is a multidisciplinary field, but those are definitely two key components.  In some ways, they&#039;re the most integral and basic, so they&#039;d make for a good foundation.  Some other relevant disciplines might include optical engineering, microelectronic/computer engineering, bionics and biomimetics.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of course I&#8217;m not bothered!  </p>
<p>There are two general rules which apply right now:</p>
<p>-There are way more jobs in academy than there are in industry, unless you are Chinese or South Korean.  </p>
<p>(And I&#8217;d add: If you somehow find work in China, the hours shall be long, the conditions poor, and the pay generally quite low.  You&#8217;ll also be working mostly on process-development related issues, e.g. how to scale-up production &amp; find the easiest, cheapest ways to make basic nanomaterials.  As for Korea, Samsung is where much of the really interesting applied-nanotech research is going on right now, but their main research center is somewhere near Seoul, they require &#8220;a master&#8217;s degree with at least 5 years of work experience or a doctoral degree&#8221;, and I hear that they do very little hiring of non-Korean nationals.)</p>
<p>-If you want an academic research job, the more credentialed you are, the better.  A Ph.D. with solid postdoc experience would be best.  You&#8217;d be hard-pressed to find an interesting job with only a bachelor&#8217;s degree.  If you manage to find anything at all, it&#8217;ll involve drudgery like washing the glassware, running administrative errands for the research staff and postdocs, and making sure the dimethylformamide is stocked.  </p>
<p><a href="http://chemjobber.blogspot.hk/" rel="nofollow">Chemjobber</a> is a blog that does a pretty good job of tracking the chemistry job market.  There are always <i>some</i> B.S.-level chem jobs out there, but they&#8217;re not very good, and they tend to have nothing to do with nanotechnology <i>per se</i>.</p>
<p>Ah, anyway, materials science and organic chemistry would definitely be a good background to have.  Nanotechnology is a multidisciplinary field, but those are definitely two key components.  In some ways, they&#8217;re the most integral and basic, so they&#8217;d make for a good foundation.  Some other relevant disciplines might include optical engineering, microelectronic/computer engineering, bionics and biomimetics.</p>
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		<title>By: snorlax</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170936</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[snorlax]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 14:42:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170936</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;d agree that mass famine is likely in Africa by the end of this century, although that&#039;s not exactly going to lead to human extinction, or even human extinction in Africa.

There&#039;s a case to be made that explosion in the African population combined with unlimited immigration and low white birthrates could lead to the extinction of whites, possibly humanity if the post-white regimes get their hands on a substantial number of nukes (although I&#039;m sure the Chinese would prevent that from happening).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d agree that mass famine is likely in Africa by the end of this century, although that&#8217;s not exactly going to lead to human extinction, or even human extinction in Africa.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a case to be made that explosion in the African population combined with unlimited immigration and low white birthrates could lead to the extinction of whites, possibly humanity if the post-white regimes get their hands on a substantial number of nukes (although I&#8217;m sure the Chinese would prevent that from happening).</p>
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		<title>By: Erebus</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170911</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Erebus]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 13:20:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170911</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Correct me if I&#039;m wrong, but I think that you&#039;re assuming that they&#039;d be subject to the same constraints as biological agents.  I don&#039;t know if this is necessarily the case -- needless to say, nonbiological materials tend to be stable and operable over a far wider range of temperatures and pressures than biologicals.  The fact that DNA isn&#039;t thermally stable at temperatures as low as 94°C forms the foundation of the much-loved polymerase chain reaction -- and proteins are folded with noncovalent bonds, which are even easier to denature, e.g. at temperatures not much higher than 50°C.  Microbes, such as the psychrophiles, have a temperature range that their enzymes and cell membranes are optimized for, and they don&#039;t function properly outside that range.  But it&#039;s important to note that Freitas/Drexler-style diamondoid nanobots would be stable over a temperature range an order of magnitude broader; additionally, the fact that they&#039;d be magnificently effective thermal conductors is worth pondering.  Temperature changes would diffuse through them with extreme rapidity -- well over 1000x faster than the same temperature changes would diffuse through biological substances.  This means that these diamondoid nanobots could possess a very fast thermal response, due to &#039;built in&#039; temperature sensors of extreme sensitivity.  They&#039;d make our mammalian thermosensors, the TRP class of proteins, look slow and foolish in comparison.  

Thinking out loud: I don&#039;t think that these bots would be a &quot;complex molecule&quot; as such.  They&#039;d be more machine-like.  They&#039;d probably have a shell, a minuscule pump or motor, and a simple central processing nucleus attached to extremely small integrated sensors of various limited capabilities.  All of these components would presumably be manufactured of hard carbon -- e.g. nanotubes, graphene, diamondoid materials -- or from a different abundant hard material, such as silicon carbide or perhaps aluminium oxynitride.  They presumably wouldn&#039;t be manufactured out of useful, but scarcer, elements such as titanium, boron, tungsten, and palladium.  I wouldn&#039;t be surprised if the first prototypes of their kind are larger than 1-250µm.  Tardigrade-sized bots, perhaps...  Hopefully with tardigrade-esque resiliency.

With that out of the way, there are many other issues with &quot;grey goo&quot; and nanomachines in general.  For one thing, I don&#039;t know if attempts to fabricate diamondoid or carbide nano-robots at atmospheric pressure &amp; with low energy input are feasible.  And, if we are to presume that they&#039;re feasible, I don&#039;t know if these processes are rapid enough to pose a threat to humanity.  For another, extreme temperature changes can probably affect nanobot sensors and movement.  And then there are presumably many other ways to affect their sensors, their ability to move, and their capacity to generate and store energy.  Grey goo is only a doomsday scenario if we&#039;ve got &lt;i&gt;tremendously capable and adaptable&lt;/i&gt; self-reproducing nanobots.  Their ability to adapt to their environments would have to be like that of microorganisms &lt;i&gt;accelerated a few billionfold&lt;/i&gt;; they&#039;d have to be quick and diffuse enough so that some fraction of their population survives any attempt we could make at destroying them; and they&#039;d have to be voracious. 
...Given the current state of the art, I&#039;d say that we have nothing to worry about at the present time.  Practical nanomachinery is something that&#039;s feasible within the next few decades, but I&#039;d bet that it&#039;ll take a lot longer than that for it to become capable of overcoming all defenses and overrunning our planet.  In the near-term, AI is probably the greater threat.  

(Interestingly, in his new book Nick Bostrom suggests that if we get AI right, and if it comes before rogue nanobots, it will be able to apply countermeasures to the risks associated with nanotechnology.  To quote: &quot;If we create superintelligence first, we will face only those existential risks that are associated with superintelligence; whereas if we create nanotechnology first, we will face the risks of nanotechnology and then, additionally, the risk of superintelligence.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Correct me if I&#8217;m wrong, but I think that you&#8217;re assuming that they&#8217;d be subject to the same constraints as biological agents.  I don&#8217;t know if this is necessarily the case &#8212; needless to say, nonbiological materials tend to be stable and operable over a far wider range of temperatures and pressures than biologicals.  The fact that DNA isn&#8217;t thermally stable at temperatures as low as 94°C forms the foundation of the much-loved polymerase chain reaction &#8212; and proteins are folded with noncovalent bonds, which are even easier to denature, e.g. at temperatures not much higher than 50°C.  Microbes, such as the psychrophiles, have a temperature range that their enzymes and cell membranes are optimized for, and they don&#8217;t function properly outside that range.  But it&#8217;s important to note that Freitas/Drexler-style diamondoid nanobots would be stable over a temperature range an order of magnitude broader; additionally, the fact that they&#8217;d be magnificently effective thermal conductors is worth pondering.  Temperature changes would diffuse through them with extreme rapidity &#8212; well over 1000x faster than the same temperature changes would diffuse through biological substances.  This means that these diamondoid nanobots could possess a very fast thermal response, due to &#8216;built in&#8217; temperature sensors of extreme sensitivity.  They&#8217;d make our mammalian thermosensors, the TRP class of proteins, look slow and foolish in comparison.  </p>
<p>Thinking out loud: I don&#8217;t think that these bots would be a &#8220;complex molecule&#8221; as such.  They&#8217;d be more machine-like.  They&#8217;d probably have a shell, a minuscule pump or motor, and a simple central processing nucleus attached to extremely small integrated sensors of various limited capabilities.  All of these components would presumably be manufactured of hard carbon &#8212; e.g. nanotubes, graphene, diamondoid materials &#8212; or from a different abundant hard material, such as silicon carbide or perhaps aluminium oxynitride.  They presumably wouldn&#8217;t be manufactured out of useful, but scarcer, elements such as titanium, boron, tungsten, and palladium.  I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if the first prototypes of their kind are larger than 1-250µm.  Tardigrade-sized bots, perhaps&#8230;  Hopefully with tardigrade-esque resiliency.</p>
<p>With that out of the way, there are many other issues with &#8220;grey goo&#8221; and nanomachines in general.  For one thing, I don&#8217;t know if attempts to fabricate diamondoid or carbide nano-robots at atmospheric pressure &amp; with low energy input are feasible.  And, if we are to presume that they&#8217;re feasible, I don&#8217;t know if these processes are rapid enough to pose a threat to humanity.  For another, extreme temperature changes can probably affect nanobot sensors and movement.  And then there are presumably many other ways to affect their sensors, their ability to move, and their capacity to generate and store energy.  Grey goo is only a doomsday scenario if we&#8217;ve got <i>tremendously capable and adaptable</i> self-reproducing nanobots.  Their ability to adapt to their environments would have to be like that of microorganisms <i>accelerated a few billionfold</i>; they&#8217;d have to be quick and diffuse enough so that some fraction of their population survives any attempt we could make at destroying them; and they&#8217;d have to be voracious.<br />
&#8230;Given the current state of the art, I&#8217;d say that we have nothing to worry about at the present time.  Practical nanomachinery is something that&#8217;s feasible within the next few decades, but I&#8217;d bet that it&#8217;ll take a lot longer than that for it to become capable of overcoming all defenses and overrunning our planet.  In the near-term, AI is probably the greater threat.  </p>
<p>(Interestingly, in his new book Nick Bostrom suggests that if we get AI right, and if it comes before rogue nanobots, it will be able to apply countermeasures to the risks associated with nanotechnology.  To quote: &#8220;If we create superintelligence first, we will face only those existential risks that are associated with superintelligence; whereas if we create nanotechnology first, we will face the risks of nanotechnology and then, additionally, the risk of superintelligence.)</p>
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		<title>By: Y.Ilan</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170884</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Y.Ilan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 11:03:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170884</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[@Erebus
Hopefully the unrelated clueless question doesn’t bother you, but would you say that studying materials engineering/science together with chemistry is a good way to get the tools and knowledge necessary in order to manufacture/develop the manufacture of useful nanomaterials? Would an individual need a Master&#039;s/PhD as well, in order to get the requisite knowledge and understanding?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Erebus<br />
Hopefully the unrelated clueless question doesn’t bother you, but would you say that studying materials engineering/science together with chemistry is a good way to get the tools and knowledge necessary in order to manufacture/develop the manufacture of useful nanomaterials? Would an individual need a Master&#8217;s/PhD as well, in order to get the requisite knowledge and understanding?</p>
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		<title>By: Lucian</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170685</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lucian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2015 00:07:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170685</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It seems to me that any of the elements of the &#039;spiritual&#039; character of human you list could be equally well possessed by non human entities?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems to me that any of the elements of the &#8216;spiritual&#8217; character of human you list could be equally well possessed by non human entities?</p>
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		<title>By: Aeroguy</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/apocalometer/#comment-170651</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Aeroguy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2015 21:22:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=4479#comment-170651</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;grey goo&quot; even has it&#039;s own limitations.  Due to the small size it has very limited ability in keeping it&#039;s own temperature stable.  So like micro-organisms, any single given strain of swarming nano-machine is going to need to be adapted for operation in a particular temperature range that is significantly smaller than what humans can deal with.  Things that wreak micro-organisms would also tend to wreak nano-machines (since they operate under the exact same thermodynamic constraints, complex molecules are fragile), they&#039;ll be very easy to cook or freeze.  Something as simple as a steep temperature gradient surrounding a building should be an effective barrier to a nano-swarm.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;grey goo&#8221; even has it&#8217;s own limitations.  Due to the small size it has very limited ability in keeping it&#8217;s own temperature stable.  So like micro-organisms, any single given strain of swarming nano-machine is going to need to be adapted for operation in a particular temperature range that is significantly smaller than what humans can deal with.  Things that wreak micro-organisms would also tend to wreak nano-machines (since they operate under the exact same thermodynamic constraints, complex molecules are fragile), they&#8217;ll be very easy to cook or freeze.  Something as simple as a steep temperature gradient surrounding a building should be an effective barrier to a nano-swarm.</p>
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