Archive for the ‘Collapse’ Category

Quote note (#199)

An excuse to link this, by Niall Ferguson, because the next Chaos Patch is almost a week away:

I am not going to repeat what you have already read or heard. I am not going to say that what happened in Paris on Friday night was unprecedented horror, for it was not. I am not going to say that the world stands with France, for it is a hollow phrase. Nor am I going to applaud Francois Hollande’s pledge of “pitiless” vengeance, for I do not believe it. I am, instead, going to tell you that this is exactly how civilisations fall. […] …

ADDED: Article has maddeningly retreated behind a paywall. (I wouldn’t have linked it — or would have quoted a lot more of it — if I’d predicted that was going to happen.) Apologies. And thanks to Nydwracu — in the comment thread — for doing something practical about that …

November 16, 2015admin 23 Comments »

Sentences (#29)

Charles Hugh Smith:

The net result of the Ratchet Effect and the impossibility of reform is this: it’s cheaper and more effective to let the system collapse than squander time and treasure attempting reforms that are bound to fail as vested interests will fight to the death to retain every shred of power and swag. (Emphasis in original.)

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November 7, 2015admin 9 Comments »

Quote note (#196)

Internally sourced (replying to this):

Mercantilism *is* quite poor. It’s a system of tarifs, subsidies, protections and monopoly grants which is what we already have today (the only difference being that in the age of actual Mercantilism they had hard money and low taxes and we now have fiat money and high taxes).

November 4, 2015admin 51 Comments »

Glide Path

Fernandez takes a clear-eyed look at where things are actually heading right now:

Conventional wisdom has had a pretty bad run these last 15 years. For that reason there is little purpose to trusting it further. Instead it might be better to predict a future based on observable trends rather than scenarios that politicians [promote?]. If those trends convey any information one would expect to see in 2025:

1. The self-destruction of the Muslim Middle East;
2. The rise of ethnic and national politics in Europe;
3. The widespread resurgence of religion and cultural identity as a consequence of (2);
4. Mass expulsions or segregation in large parts of the world to deconflict incompatible communities
5. Everyone packing personal weapons like the Wild West
6. The collapse of multi-ethnic countries into simplified pacts based around of national defense, with most social law generated by local communities and affinity groups;
7. One or more large regional wars with casualties in the tens of millions.
8. Several, possibly many WMD attacks on major cities involving radiological weapons, low yield nukes or biological agents.
8. The collapse of any realistic expectation of Peace on Earth, with the remaining hope of mankind vested in the new space frontier.

Such a world would be rough, dangerous and in many places, miserable. Perhaps it will not even be as good as that; for the list above omits the occurrence of an event equivalent to World War 3, in which case we can describe the future with a single word: ruin. But it is the world we are building, absent any change of course. The oddest circumstance is that politicians still pretend without the slightest basis, that if we stay their perverse course we’ll go right through the ruin and out the other side and find the dream we glimpsed as we crossed into the 21st century. […] It’s a condition they call Hope, though there’s another phrase for it: whistling past the graveyard.

October 15, 2015admin 19 Comments »
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Meanwhile, in Venezuela …

A mineral-rich socialist diet:

The governor of the Venezuelan state of Bolívar has some advice for dealing with the widespread shortage of food across the country. Can’t find eggs at your local Venezuelan grocery store? Why not try fried rocks instead? […] Governor Francisco Rangel said during his radio show on Tuesday, September 29, that the Venezuelan people should not “yield to temptation” or worry about not being able to find a pack of flour or sardines to buy amid the shortages. […] “Let them take away whatever they want. We are capable of eating a stick, or instead of frying two eggs, fry two rocks, and we will eat fried rocks, ” he said, “but no one can beat us.” […] Rangel referred to the so-called economic war and the “induced inflation” that he and other ruling-party leaders claim is being caused by the opposition. “Now that prices are sky high, we need to fight against this together. Let them not feel like they have beaten us,” he said.

A functional world order should always have a few socialist regimes hanging on, to do the teaching job the education system can’t.

October 12, 2015admin 7 Comments »
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Doom Paul 00

What would a full stocks correction look like?

A true understanding of stock market history shows that Wall Street in the past has moved in long, long swings upwards and downwards, often taking years or even a generation or two. There is a great deal of evidence suggesting that the upward move that began in 1982 is one of them — and that the downward move that first began in 2000 has not ended.

As stock market historian Russell Napier points out in his book “Anatomy of the Bear,” on five occasions in the past 100 years — in 1921, 1932, 1949, 1974 and 1982 — those big downward moves have not ended until share valuations have fallen to just 30% of the replacement cost of company assets. That’s using a powerful, if little-known, economic metric known as Tobin’s q. […] And, to cut to the chase, if Wall Street stocks followed the same path today that would take the Dow down to about 5,000, and the S&P 500 Index all the way down to around 600. (The S&P 500 slumped more than 3% to 1,971 on Friday.) […] Yikes.

The “q” is a valuation that they don’t even mention in the training manuals for the official “financial planner” and financial-analyst exams. Your money manager has probably never heard of it. Or, if he has, he probably ranks it with astrology and the mystic rantings of Nostradamus. […] But the “q” happens to have by far the most successful long-term track record of any stock market indicator. …

August 22, 2015admin 15 Comments »


Very crudely re-stated, Moldbug’s Cathedral concept says that whatever is happening in the universities is an authoritative rough draft of what society more generally has coming to it. Politics is downstream of prestige culture, which the academy commands. So this is huge.

The American academy has become a self-propelling anxiety machine, in which steadily-consolidating totalitarianism and mental disintegration have been run-together into a circuit of amplification that no one knows how to turn off. Haidt and Lukianoff call it “vindictive protectiveness” driven by “emotional reasoning” which it in turn (nonlinearly) promotes. It corresponds to a systematic transfer of incontestable authority towards feelings of grievance. Questioning the dynamic is considered to be “blaming the victim” and thus a heinous crime in itself. Everyone gets out of the way, if they’re not indeed joining in. Madness intensifies. (It’s classic Left Singularity machinery.)

Nearly all of the campus mental-health directors surveyed in 2013 by the American College Counseling Association reported that the number of students with severe psychological problems was rising at their schools. The rate of emotional distress reported by students themselves is also high, and rising. In a 2014 survey by the American College Health Association, 54 percent of college students surveyed said that they had “felt overwhelming anxiety” in the past 12 months, up from 49 percent in the same survey just five years earlier. Students seem to be reporting more emotional crises; many seem fragile, and this has surely changed the way university faculty and administrators interact with them.

The universities — being craven concentrations of cowardice, when not actively evil — are scared to tell their students to stop being scared. Radical feedback runs away unchecked. Victimological terror is sovereign.

This is what is coming down the tracks, so fast that the headlights have started to dazzle people. Take a look at the future. It’s screaming.

August 12, 2015admin 65 Comments »
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Quote note (#171)

Fernandez invests far too much confidence in conservatives, as usual, but this is still thought-provoking:

If the world that conservative Americans once cherished has diminished; it has not been as rapid as the shrinkage of the liberal universe. Both aspects of old world are dying never to come back. The post World War 2 era of Franklin Roosevelt has nearly run its course. The difference is that the conservatives are more aware of its passing and may become more active in building what replaces it.

A miniature representation of the crisis is being acted out in Greece where the left is embarked on a Battle Royale against reality. …

(Discussing the acute irony of Darwinian forces populating the world with creationists earlier this evening — it seems like very much the same thing.)

July 1, 2015admin 12 Comments »

Twitter cuts (#21)

June 30, 2015admin 15 Comments »

All Over

Peter Hitchens has given up, on immigration (as well as everything else):

Once [illegal immigrants are] in, our own treasured freedoms work against us. Thanks to centuries of island freedom, when we were able to decide who came in and who didn’t, it is far easier to disappear in Britain than in almost any other country in the world. We’ll abolish those freedoms in the end, alas, but it won’t do any good. […] And now the expensive navies of the EU are ferrying thousands more across the Mediterranean each week. The people-smugglers are saving a fortune on fuel, for they know their victims will be picked up before they are halfway across, in what are misleadingly described as ‘rescues’. […] The only thing that will stop the flow is when the EU countries, including ours, become so like the places these people are fleeing from that there is no point in coming any more.

June 15, 2015admin 12 Comments »