Chaos Patch (#101)

(open thread + links)

NRx orthodoxy (also relevant). Sanguine on NIO. Retribution. Broken world syndrome. Why WN fails. Citadel on philosemitism. Leftism and Christianity. ‘Neoreaction’ on TV. The ADL’s Alt-Right primer. The weekly round.

War clouds thicken over Syria (also relevant). Transition in Vietnam (some commentary). Swedish suicide (and Finland‘s). Collapse spiral in Greece, and — still more — in Venezuela. Blaming you-know-who in Malaysia. Winning by losing. Grim analyses. Stay out of civil wars. A defense of the Gray Zone. Ethnic violence is war.

Missing inflation and abundant oil. The fourth revolution. Inefficient financial markets. Perverse effects.

Antonin Scalia, a writer for the law (as even his enemies admit). An opportunity for the Left? Pollack comments. Douthat at the NYT.

Mainstream Left and Right on the tightrope. No exit. An Indian view of political asymmetry (also). When anarchists attack. Communist defectors. Send him to church. Millennial retardation and psychosis (related).

Trumpenführer panic report — fash forward edition. Trump intensifies. Subtle hints of desperation. “Trumpism is … the endgame of a process that has been going on for a half-century: America’s divestment of its historic national identity.” Populism rising, everywhere. America can survive.

Apocalypse Corner — locked-in-a-burning-box version. Doom loop (relevant). “We’re all going to suffer.”

Twitter’s algorithmic timeline and untrusted safety council, plus shadow banning, censorship, and other partisan excesses. (More.) The padded cell option. Chaos tweet of the week. Methodical lies.

Crime-fact express. DNA letters. Canine ‘IQ’. Sexual difference. A black bitter clinger.

Zika people. Leftist ants. Tentaclysm (plus).

Open access. Gravity makes waves (plus 1, 2, 3, 4). Mega-mirrors. Moore no more? Two decades of computer pwnage. Viral heritage. Time-travel hazard.

The complex beauty of virtue ethics. Cheating and self-reinforcement. Defectors from the Left. Going big on Bosch.

February 14, 2016admin 39 Comments »

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39 Responses to this entry

  • Chaos Patch (#101) | Neoreactive Says:

    […] By admin […]

    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 3:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • Oscar Williams Says:

    SA is going into the deep end. Should be interesting to see what happens next.


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 3:48 pm Reply | Quote
  • reactionaryfuture Says:

    The vitrtue ethics post is so muddled it is obscene. Virtue ethics are utterly hostile to libertarianism and liberalism of all guises, especially feminism which is frankly one of the most evil things to beset mankind. That the likes of Gurri think virtue ethics are even remotly applicable is symptomatic of leftism – everything is truly leftism when perceived correctly. I don’t see how virtue ethics are applicable to philosophy based on skepticism nor idealism. Just, no.


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 4:13 pm Reply | Quote
  • Tentative Joiner Says:

    Admin, have you read Alexander’s Unsong? I think chapter one might be up your alley even if the rest of it isn’t. A choice quote and a link follow.

    >The timer read 4:33, which is the length of John Cage’s famous silent musical piece. 4:33 makes 273 seconds total. -273 is absolute zero in Celsius. John Cage’s piece is perfect silence; absolute zero is perfect stillness. In the year 273 AD, the two consuls of Rome were named Tacitus and Placidianus; “Tacitus” is Latin for “silence” and Placidianus is Latin for “stillness”. 273 is also the gematria of the Greek word eremon, which means “silent” or “still”. None of this is a coincidence because nothing is ever a coincidence.


    admin Reply:

    This even more.


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 4:15 pm Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    It’s good to see Guillaume Faye’s “convergence of catastrophes” in motion.

    First, the oil industry is headed toward a lengthy and horrible recession.

    Second, the dot-com bubble is finally popping. This will savage much of the created wealth.

    Finally, the USA may have no hope of survival if 0bama puts a new rabid Leftist onto the Supreme Court.

    Zika? A blip, most likely. But the third world to first world disease pipeline will not get any better.

    Russia and China are broke and need war, just like they fought the West in Korea and Vietnam.

    Nothing is going well; everything points toward the final conflagration of modern society.

    And that is good, because it deserves to burn, and then, in the ashes, we can at least plant new life… real life instead of the callow substitutes offered by democracy, liberalism, pluralism, diversity and socialism.


    Different T Reply:

    practices hypocrisy to the highest degree
    dont let them fool you
    instant destruction


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 7:40 pm Reply | Quote
  • Chaos Patch (#101) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 7:56 pm Reply | Quote
  • SanguineEmpiricist Says:

    I sort of missed the train on this, but what’s the best works of the ‘New Right’ are they still in fashion in europe? They were big on the NRx scene awhile ago and now all of the new right references seem to have died down.

    Where’s Ash Milton been?


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 9:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • Kgaard Says:

    The Charles Murray piece in the WSJ is okay as far as it goes, but it is so cleansed of badthink that in a sense it is more obfuscatory than helpful. Murray must have really tormented himself in trying to phrase his points.

    I see this all the time now. Half the right-hand side of the mainstream media is just a big meat processor: neoreaction goes in one side and smooth, polite, ideologically-disinfected blather-talk comes out the other. If anything it is counterproductive. Just as The Onion is worth more than the Washington post, soon zerohedge will be worth more than the WSJ.


    michael Reply:

    Yes but he says it as plainly as an intelligent person needs to understand in and he names names feminism immigration racial set asides etc. You cant expect much more in the NYTs competitor WSJ has been positioning itself as the alternative high falutin paper. No hes not breaking any new ground really just using Trump to interject anew what hes been saying for decades. Hes kind of the original Dark enlightenment guy, the Bell Curve was devastating it methodically demolished “all men are created equal” And once that key is turned the implications are horrible.
    I would like to note he always got what you guys dont seem to the middle class never voted for this the elites imposed it against stiff opposition,often over riding democratic attempts to stop it.And when it began minorities were 10% and they didnt vote again elites changed both those things. This idea that democracy is the problem and a permanent elite [kings etc ]class the answer is baffling. Its what we have now, what the cathedral has proven is democracy is irrelevant because people vote as they are told to vote by the social controls academia,media, etc And very few even bother to vote but the very fact of apparent democracy defuses any un scripted pitchfork marching.The american values of individualism, meritocracy, freedom could still be rekindled in the whites and they are not a problem except when they are pwnd by commies as they were. minorities will never go for them they are stupid but not too stupid to know they lose on a level playing field. Whites are content to know they have the winning ticket in their children or grandchildren.
    No ones saying the ideal society votes for everything and that works well i dont think that was ever really the idea it says if things get bad enough they can theoretically overide the elites as usual without resort to pitchfork and torch.This may prove to be wishful thinking and more direct action may indeed be needed. but that wasnt because democracy it was because elites were able to ignore it while proles continued to trust it.
    Sure elite rule makes sense except when they go off the rails and they tend to do this everytime a civilization reaches a certain point. They get rich lazy spoiled effeminate degenerate they start to slum then elevate the slum to high fashion, they scorn their fellow ethnic middle classes ,they import foreign mercenaries and workers, they stop figuring out how to fix things and throw fiat at the mobs instead,they stop governing and knight a professional class to administer -well I could go on and on. what doesnt happen till way after all of this is popular mobs demanding something to eat.
    So where is it written that ethno states must be populist and populist must be socialist.I find this just another version of Godwins law. Why not HBD reveals an ethnostate prerequisite for a stable culture and state, no need to get all hateful or sentimental just thats the facts. guest workers who cant be citizens or get involved in politics and culture should be fine, Cathedral works great at keeping democracy in check the problem is its been put to evil purpose. Keep the cathedral replace the elites.
    But how to keep elites from rotting again is the real question. All those convoluted arguments about Cromwell and Jefferson ought to focus instead of on democratic tendencies on what spoiled elites. One thought is left is the only direction to go once a civilization is optimized maintenance is so boring.


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 10:23 pm Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:

    How exactly is WN failing?

    I’m pushed into Identitarian politics by hostility to me and mine. I’ll hit back if hit.

    However I’m also not even racialist, certainly not in associations or war comrades, people I trust. Nor Anti-Semite. You march with the army you have, you fight for what you were born.

    The idea that White Identity politics is failing is vitiated by Trump. Blog that it “Fails” all one may.


    Grotesque Body Reply:

    Trump is alpha politics, not WN politics.


    michael Reply:

    yes but ant white alpha is naturally a white supremacist maybe not overtly to the extent he worships other races he is cucked and not alpha, granted its difficult line to walk today but alpha is alpha and not is not.


    michael Reply:

    Id have to agree Im a native new yorker with nothing but jewish, minority, and liberal friends I grew up with successful intellectual/artist parents I dont hate but I dont hate myself. And I am now asked to choose between my people and theyre civilization [which is objectively the best] and Brazil 2.0 ,so of course i choose WN.
    Ok there was a journey from The Bell Curve to Griffe d lion and a lot of events like OJ Trayvon and Holder in between that framed the choice so starkly. Similarly feminism made itself felt in my life through divorce and child rearing. Being a natural is of little use against female divorce judges attorneys and the social workers modern family puts you at the mercy of. And of course the cucking of conservative ink.
    Now Its really hard to measure but my guess would be WN is growing with people like me. That doesnt mean enough like me will publically admit it or there will be many like me I have always been a rather independent thinker and a bit oppositional personality. so WN may indeed have limits, certainly many of them have off putting baggage but alt WNs are emerging that eschew the hate and socialism and are only semite skeptic if that,So


    Posted on February 14th, 2016 at 11:40 pm Reply | Quote
  • Zig Zag Twong Says:

    “Travel was once a means of being elsewhere, or of being nowhere. Today it is the only way we have of feeling that we are somewhere. At home, surrounded by information, by screens, I am no longer anywhere, but rather everywhere in the world at once, in the midst of a universal banality – a banality that is the same in every country. To arrive in a new city, or in a new language, is suddenly to find oneself here and nowhere else. The body rediscovers how to look. Delivered from images, it rediscovers the imagination.”

    ― Jean Baudrillard, The Transparency of Evil: Essays in Extreme Phenomena


    Kgaard Reply:

    Thanks … I bought this guy’s book based on this excerpt. Powerful stuff. Hits very close to home.


    Posted on February 15th, 2016 at 3:09 am Reply | Quote
  • Grotesque Body Says:

    ‘I was beat up by left anarchists in Greece. It hurt really bad and I remember yelling “you’re breaking the NAP.”‘

    Comedy gold.


    Grotesque Body Reply:

    Reminds me of this:

    “Two weeks ago, on a Monday morning, I started to write what I thought was a very clever editorial about violence against women in Haiti. The case, I believed, was being overstated by women’s organizations in need of additional resources. Ever committed to preserving the dignity of Black men in a world which constantly stereotypes them as violent savages, I viewed this writing as yet one more opportunity to fight “the man” on behalf of my brothers. That night, before I could finish the piece, I was held on a rooftop in Haiti and raped repeatedly by one of the very men who I had spent the bulk of my life advocating for.

    It hurt. The experience was almost more than I could bear. I begged him to stop. Afraid he would kill me, I pleaded with him to honor my commitment to Haiti, to him as a brother in the mutual struggle for an end to our common oppression, but to no avail. He didn’t care that I was a Malcolm X scholar.”


    Posted on February 15th, 2016 at 4:15 am Reply | Quote
  • Erebus Says:

    The “No Exit” article is so utterly retarded that it doesn’t deserve a thorough response. (I have a hard time believing that it was written by an adult, in all earnestness, and for publication. It reads like a 10th grade student’s homework essay.)

    …Suffice it to say that the author’s arguments are completely devoid of merit. What he ultimately proposes is an egalitarian and progressive form of Transhumanism, which, for very obvious reasons, will not and cannot lead anywhere. There’s no possible way to evenly distribute a transhuman future.

    The idiot’s worst case scenario is among the most plausible, and most positive, possible outcomes for Transhumanism:
    >“It is frightening to think that transhumanism might grow in enclaves that eschew the good Big Projects of the dominant world cultures and governments (large scale wind farms, space programs, health and welfare services, and other things that can only be done with lots of folks paying in lots of time and taxes to better their collective lot) only to sour and become a zombie version of itself—isolationist, reactionary, defensive, offensive… and even weaponized.”


    Are wind farms and social welfare the best this self-styled “ethicist” could come up with?

    Any viable Transhumanist movement should want nothing to do with progressivism, which will sap its vigor as surely as a leech drains blood from its host. It can have, by definition, nothing to do with egalitarianism. It absolutely must be hardened and weaponized to some extent, and will very likely be “reactionary” at least insofar as the progressive zeitgeist is concerned….


    Aeroguy Reply:

    There are two types that promote transhumanism.

    Those that think transhumanism means that man has overcome evolution by controlling his genetic destiny.

    Those that understand evolution is beyond anyone’s control because it has more to with competition than genes and will be accelerated by intelligence being the primary actor in that competition rather than genes.

    It’s smartphones and catgirls in the boom times when resources are plenty (The beautiful colorful and exotic spandrels of life, when intra-species status competition matters more than competition with the outside, abundance makes birds of paradise inevitable), but growth always catches up in proportion to r-selection, competition makes itself felt as the fleeting freedom of genetic choice gives way to the will to win where K-selection dominates. The success of the k-selected produces a new boom and the cycle continues. The telos of life, the telos of capital, maximization of entropy production.

    The path of intelligence acceleration is a rocky one, of two steps forward one step back. Admin, do you see any way for intelligence maximization to escape from servicing maximization of entropy production? If not then intelligence will always be secondary, bounded, a slave to a higher purpose, at best a single component in a larger whole.


    michael Reply:

    evolution is working slower than as you call it intelligence so we are not optimized for intelligence created environment [culture]and a quick catch up [collapse type culls]might be final, gene editing might solve this, might also be final.In the sense that our species has recently been selected more by social rather than physical environment and thats intelligence influenced, and our genomes may soon be designed by us to suit such environments allowing a tighter feedback loop we have or soon will transcend evolutions random mutation aspect but we and even just our intelligence made environment are still complicated enough systems that we are subject to chaos swanns, accelerations while needed to catch up are probably more likely to overshoot and crash us.Ideally experiments would be done in isolation but hey that would not be market driven


    Erebus Reply:

    >Those that think transhumanism means that man has overcome evolution by controlling his genetic destiny.

    >Those that understand evolution is beyond anyone’s control because it has more to with competition than genes and will be accelerated by intelligence being the primary actor in that competition rather than genes.

    The latter is definitely an outside in perspective — at least in the sense that it is an inward-looking perspective. It’s also the correct perspective. There’s no way to subjugate evolution; its hooks are in us, and they’re deep; nothing man can create will be free of its influence. (Which, I think, applies to your question “can intelligence maximization escape from servicing entropy maximization?” — humans and those things humans shape cannot escape.)

    In practical terms, of course, the two views you present don’t differ very much. They are two paths to the same destination. What I think is worth mentioning is that the most megalomaniacal and least introspective Transhumanists — the ones who wholeheartedly believe that evolution is beneath them; the ones who believe that they and they alone are on the path to a posthuman Godhood — are without question the ones most likely to push the envelope, embrace risky technologies… and shun or lash out at the rest of society. So much the better. One such man, even a failure, is worth any number of cringing ethicists.

    In any case, what’s as plain as day that Transhumanism is the polar opposite of egalitarianism. It is necessarily and intrinsically elitist. And this is what makes the No Exit article seem so foolish. (“What consideration for the protections of the rights of the weak and vulnerable will be made in these [Transhumanist] libertarian enclaves and “temporary autonomous zones”?” it asks…)


    Posted on February 15th, 2016 at 2:40 pm Reply | Quote
  • Kgaard Says:

    This Q&A with a dense central banker is one of the best things I’ve ever seen written about the practice of central banking. Eliezer Yudkowsky walks a slow-minded central banker through the problem of why he’s not hitting his 2% CPI target and what to do about it.

    I suppose it will drive Austrians bananas because the whole point is that the central banker has promised to hit a 2% CPI target — and yet refuses to actually take the steps to do it. The implication being that the 2% target is good. (Which, in a democracy, I think it is.)

    Opens in Farcebook.


    Hurlock Reply:

    Your non-sequitur skills are just as impressive as I remember them.


    Kgaard Reply:

    Actually Hurlock this is probably the most important question in the world right now. NIRP has become an issue in large part because central bankers are refusing to hit their stated targets year after year after year. This is a massive policy failure (and by extension a political failure). It’s largely the reason Southern Europe blew up. It may blow up China. Central bankers are following a policy of depression. Why?


    Hurlock Reply:

    It’s an Austrian conspiracy, clearly!

    The Mises Institute has taken over the FED!!!

    It’s not a matter of the central bankers “refusing” to hit their stated targets, clearly they are not doing anything of the sort if they are willing to go all in on NIRP.
    But maybe, just maybe, central bankers are actually not almighty demigods, and sometimes, market forces, genuine market forces push back on their attempted manipulations?

    On a slightly unrelated note, I still find it hilarious how no matter what happens people like you always have the same explanation: “Clearly the monetary policy is not loose enough”.

    And they call people like Peter Schiff a “broken clock”…

    Kgaard Reply:

    How would you feel about a policy whereby if a central bank had a 2% CPI target and in year 1 they only posted 1%, then in year two they would need to do 3%. That way, the market could be confident that after 10 years total CPI would be 20% (plus some compounding so let’s say 22%). Under the current policy they can miss it every year and after 10 years only have like 13% CPI despite having a 2% target. Would you say the former policy is more in keeping with a 2% CPI target?

    If that one change were done, markets would blast off.

    Posted on February 15th, 2016 at 3:59 pm Reply | Quote
  • Mark Citadel Says:

    Thanks for the link, Nick. A good roundup by all accounts.


    Posted on February 15th, 2016 at 4:22 pm Reply | Quote
  • Morkyz Says:

    If having everything exposed to the “outside” + ruthless competition is so great, can we conclude that multicellular life is an aberration/mistake? Apparently only a small minority of cells are part of organisms, so the unicellular are both practically and theoretically gnon’s chosen.


    admin Reply:

    Given the recognition even of intra-genomic competition, it seems unlikely that a metazoan is a model of harmonious community.


    Morkyz Reply:

    But, barring a HeLa miracle scenario, no one benefits from that competition.


    admin Reply:

    “No one” doesn’t get a vote. Arms races have greater teleological density than their component elements.

    Posted on February 16th, 2016 at 10:34 am Reply | Quote
  • Blogospheroid Says:

    I missed the whole NIRP discusssion a little while back, so would like to pitch in a little about that.

    The current scenario made me doubt the competence of the Switzerland and Singapore governments (actually all governments who currently have negative yielding bonds and sovereign currency control, but I respected these 2). Here was a golden opportunity for enrichment. When people are paying you to hold their money, the right response should be to at the least, try to push it for what it’s worth. Print short term and medium term debt until the rate reaches back to positive. Why in the good name of god, wouldn’t you try to milk the flight to safe havens for all its worth?

    The only answer I could think of is behavioural. The people in charge feel dirty doing it and feel that once they go down that path, there is no turning back. Yudkowsky’s dialogue really brings that bit out. I’m enough of a vrtue ethicist to understand the feeling, though i feel the central bankers could be more consequentialist in the current situation.

    In the spirit of the dog that didn’t bark, I wanted to ask those more knowledgeable than me a couple of questions.

    Even before NIRP, at ZIRP itself, there is another instrument to expand monetary amounts, changing the required reserve ratio. This can potentially go to zero and the amount of money generated can go to infinity. Any idea why this wasn’t used? Basel agreements??

    What happened to entry of new corporations into the banking industry? At ZIRP, they should have been flooding in to tear the incumbents a new orifice. What happened ? (More a ZIRP question than a NIRP one)

    Are credit card interest rates coming down?

    If the concern with NIRP or even a cash crackdown, is that the average risk averse fellow on the street getting shafted, isn’t that trivially easy to fix by sending every citizen a small cheque to offset their negative interest and cash withdrawal charges. The governments are supposed to have access to all citizen’s addresses/ bank accounts. You could protect upto 95 to 99% of your people like this and make sure that you are just hitting the well off. I’m not a socialist and it didn’t take me long to think of this. Any comments on something like this as an option?


    Kgaard Reply:

    Blog … A few thoughts:

    1) I think the problem with lower reserve requirements is then you just lever the banks up too much. That’s not really helpful, as excessive leverage was a big part of what caused 2008 (and 1929).

    2) You are right about the free-money-to-governments question. If people are willing to lend you money at zero, why not take it and go buy stuff with it? Foreign real estate and bonds would seem logical options. Central banks are paranoid about doing that sort of thing because if they have to reverse it the real estate can be hard to sell. On buying foreign government bonds, apparently there is some gentlemen’s agreement between central banks not to weaken their currencies via foreign bond buying.

    3) On the question of helicopter money (sending everyone a check) this gets at the behavioral issue you referenced. It just feels dirty to anyone with a Calvinist bloodstream to start sending out checks to people who did not work for them. Also there is the question of whether it would work. NGDP tareters are generally against one-off helicopter drops due to the fact that there is no long-term systemic component. And given the aforementioned Calvinist equilibrium point of moral systems, one can only assume the helictopter drops would not be sustained (as likely they wouldn’t be).

    So this brings us back again to the idea of a 2% mandated target: Ten years from today CPI has to be 22% higher than it is now. That’s the law. Central bankers are just functionaries. Their power is stripped away. I think this is the way forward but of course given that the Fed is a tribal sinecure I don’t see why they would accept that.


    Blogospheroid Reply:

    Thanks for the reply, Kgaard.

    The gentleman’s agreement. Of course the sneers the bankers get from their peers when they visit davos is more important to them than the suffering of unemployed people who they never see. Time and again, we require reminders about how important the monkeysphere is.

    My point 3 wasn’t about helicopter money. The theory behind helicopter money is when you give people enough money to induce them to spend. My point is – give the average person enough so that he is not in a loss by keeping money in a safe place. It is to get political support for the zero to negative interest rates.

    About your last bit, I’m totally in favour of level targeting. Nominal median (or maybe even 30 percentile) income could be even better than NGDPLT. I think of level targeting as a very basic thing. You’re just establishing the rules you’re going to play by in the future. It is basically setting a monetary standard.


    Posted on February 16th, 2016 at 11:57 am Reply | Quote
  • SanguineEmpiricist Says:

    I’m going to make it a habit of trying to respond to some of the people who are writing in the blogosphere I actually try to read a decent amount of stuff floating around.


    Posted on February 17th, 2016 at 8:37 am Reply | Quote
  • 4candles Says:

    Mike is late to the party:

    “The tiny community of Islamville, an all-Muslim town of about 300 people located in the northern woodland of South Carolina, is dismayed by the rhetoric of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. “He’s no different from the KKK,” one resident told the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt:

    “Well how would you feel?”

    Ramadan Saeed Shakir is the mayor of Islamville, an all-Muslim town of about 300 people located in the northern woodland of South Carolina. He is talking about Donald Trump – specifically, what Donald Trump has been saying about Muslims.

    Since entering the race in June 2015, Trump has said he would introduce a database tracking all Muslims in the US. He has said he would ban Muslims worldwide – an estimated 1.6bn people – from entering the country.

    “Of course we feel uncomfortable and unsafe,” said Shakir. “It’s Islamophobia.””

    Islamville. Islamville … and the fucking Islamophobia. Shame on you (Confederate swine). How genius is that?


    Posted on February 19th, 2016 at 1:12 am Reply | Quote
  • Tom Barghest Says:

    I wanted to thank you for linking my first article and speaking highly of it. I was not initially planning to write beyond my first two pieces, they were written to satisfy someone else and I’m leery of internet discussion, but I’ve reconsidered. I’ll begin making occasional comments around here if you don’t mind; I’m a longtime reader. Thanks again, and thanks for years of thought provoking writing.


    Posted on March 5th, 2016 at 12:53 am Reply | Quote

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