Chaos Patch (#32)

(Open thread, and links.)

Ebola! Stories from Nigeria (good) and Europe (not so good). Contagion math (and from Taleb). “The End of the World: it’s sooner than you think.” Ebola as a morbid cultural indicator. Oddness and lunacy.

Fertility transitions and dysgenics. (Related.)

Some (old) background to Singularity and time preference. There’s a lot more to discuss about technology, reaction, and time horizons at some point (given time).


Taking trolls seriously.

Dampier on van Creveld on sexual privilege. Mangan on masculinity and politics. Goddesses and man at Harvard. Phalanx: “… we envision a group of men meeting regularly to do things like the following: Go to church …”

This time is different.

South Africa disillusions the left.

The singular of data is anecdote. Charles Murray reviews The Bell Curve. Model minority trickiness. Slate cuts some bait.

SST on politicization.

Free Northerner‘s Christianity debate begins. What Gibbon got right (and what he didn’t say). On The Theory of Moral Sentiments.

SoBL on Mulholland Drive.

News without novelty.

Zombie sociology. A skeptical overview of the Typhonian Tomes. Crabzilla.

Fermi Paradox — the poem.

October 19, 2014admin 29 Comments »

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29 Responses to this entry

  • Hurlock Says:


    I am still waiting for that recovery in Japan you said was going to happen.

    Even Goldman Sachs admit Abenomics has failed. But maybe you know something they don’t?


    Kgaard Reply:

    Well let’s give it some more time. I admit the recovery has not been stellar but a host of leading indicators look WAY better than 2 years ago: Tankan survey, bank lending etc, Nikkei etc. The VAT hike was retarded and Abe is dragging his feet on the corporate tax cut, so everything is on the shoulders of the BoJ. But I assure you that WITHOUT the BoJ’s heavy QE the situation would be far, far worse.

    I see you linked to a Zerohedge article, as has the admin. There really ought to be some sort of ordinance on this site stipulating that every linkage to Zerohedge must be balanced with a link to Sumner. Zerohedge is a destroyer of careers, reputations and bank accounts (see Gross, Bill and Bass, Kyle). The Zerohedge worldview, at least as it pertains to monetary policy is JFW — Just Fucking Wrong. It’s also kind of odd that for all the Zerohedge links nobody has actually come out and dissed Sumner. In fact everyone has had nice things to say about him here. So that is a serious case of mental dissonance. You can’t believe both Zerohedge and Sumner.

    Doing my Christian duty here: I would urge all readers to erase your Zerohedge bookmark and replace it with a bookmark to Sumner’s page. Here’s a recent good one on the lunacy at the ECB (but really everything he writes is good):


    Hurlock Reply:

    “But I assure you that WITHOUT the BoJ’s heavy QE the situation would be far, far worse. ”
    Of course you do. And I do not doubt that when the whole thing utterly collapses (i.e. when the denial phase ends) you will come up with some excuse as to how it happened because of some ‘mistakes’ just like Goldman Sachs argue in that same article.
    The question is not whether things are ‘better’, that is a red herring entirely. The question is whether abenomics achieved what it was promised to achieve. It didn’t.

    “There really ought to be some sort of ordinance on this site stipulating that every linkage to Zerohedge must be balanced with a link to Sumner.”
    Please no. That would be the point when I start visiting this site less and less.

    “It’s also kind of odd that for all the Zerohedge links nobody has actually come out and dissed Sumner. In fact everyone has had nice things to say about him here. So that is a serious case of mental dissonance. You can’t believe both Zerohedge and Sumner.”

    I don’t believe Sumner at all.

    The market monetarists are basically keynesians who call themselves monetarists. If it walks like a keynesian and it talks like a keynesian and uses the same framework as a keynesian, Scott Sumner is a keynesian.


    Kgaard Reply:

    Well then how do you justify the ECB barfing all over itself with super-tight money? They are doing exactly what you recommend, no? Minimal QE. The result is depopulation in Spain, France and Portugal — i.e. hastening of the end of western civilization.

    Your portfolio must be getting crushed this year if you are investing according to your theories. And I mean CRUSHED. The gold-stock indices have been destroyed. Japan exporters and construction, by contrast, have been doing great.

    Kgaard Reply:

    @Hurlock Here is Zerohedge golden boy Kyle Bass pitching his short call on Japanese bonds back in April, when they were yielding 0.63%. Now they are yielding 0.477%. He is getting destroyed on his theory that QE would cause bond values to implode (and hence interest rates to rise). Bond prices have been RISING into all this QE. Doesn’t that seem strange to you? What this rally in Japanese bond values is saying is that investors don’t believe the BoJ will print ENOUGH money to prevent the economy from sinking back into deflation. That’s the risk I’m worried about. If the wheels come off it will be because the BoJ gives up and loses heart in QE (which is of course possible).

    Link to Zerohedge golden boy/destroyer of capital Kyle Bass making conceptually flawed short call:

    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 12:08 pm Reply | Quote
  • Chaos Patch (#32) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 2:28 pm Reply | Quote
  • VXXC Says:

    Look that contagion math is scary but it never works exactly mathematically, you know….like economics and everything else that’s human. Or alive. I’m beginning to wonder if some people are alive as opposed to Viruses.

    But — We’ll take a hit no doubt about it.

    It won’t be fun to see it. It won’t be fun if it wends it’s way to Shanghai [and oh yes it can].

    Meanwhile I’ve reacted to nature [other than human nature] to the tune of a few hundred dollars for the 1st time:

    They’ve delivered reliably and timely, and you can buy either $5 each or be smart and spend $50-100 for a bulk box. I bought Bulk then shipped or handed to loved ones and saved myself worry and frankly money compared to the panic buyers, I started buying as soon as I heard Frieden’s Press conference. I’m not reacting to the Media or Nature, I’m reacting to genuine certified USG Grade Bullshit.

    Don’t get ripped off by Amazon, and Home Depot is pretty much tapped out online.


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 3:02 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alrenous Says:

    >This time is different.

    The natural relationship between stock market and free market is that of blood pressure and heart. Injecting ‘liquidity’ is like trying to treat high blood pressure by bleeding the patient’s wrist. Treating the symptoms makes the disease worse.

    However, regulations have bloated the FIRE sector beyond all recognition. All parasitism, of course, but it means many daily breads depends on the blood pressure monitor reading the correct number. They did the parasitism this way precisely because enough state resistance has evolved that they can’t do it openly anymore. However, being aptly named, the FIRE sector powers itself by burning capital. (I can mathematically prove this.) The bigger the FIRE is, the faster the economy is destroyed. The ‘liquid’ in question is literally gasoline, making the FIRE bigger.


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 3:59 pm Reply | Quote
  • Peter A. Taylor Says:

    John Derbyshire has a nice little rant about “anecdote” and “data” here:


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 4:37 pm Reply | Quote
  • j. ont. Says:

    Thought experiment:

    Let’s say the world is going to shit, and a huge percentage–somewhere between 70% and 90% of the population is going to die, with no guaranty that there will be selection for intelligence–so we’re heading straight back to something like the dark ages. There will be religion, or something like religion in the new dark age–so what would be the optimal set of commandments, given what we know now about race, gender, politics, technology, economics, and so on?

    I imagine answers will be different depending on which aspect of the trichotomy is favored.


    scientism Reply:

    I’ve been thinking about something similar recently, but from the opposite direction: Confucianism appears to be designed for robustness. Confucianism has a kind of fractal or cell structure: the family is the basic unit of society and Confucianism focuses on how the family should conduct itself and the Confucian political system is the result of extending this conduct outwards (society is a meritocratically ordered family of families). Now, given that an individual is reproductively useless, this seems like the right approach. The family has to be taken as the agent of cultural transmission. Confucianism embodies this in a set of practices, so it isn’t simply theoretical. Filial piety and the veneration of ancestors connect family members with the deep past and orient them to long-term thinking. These practices are passed from one generation to the next. Confucians are acutely aware that a family is something extended in time. It’s also anti-egalitarian and has moral prohibitions against treating everyone the same. In theory, a Confucian society can regenerate as long as a single Confucian family survives.

    So I’d say you need something robustly focused on the family, giving family members clear roles, with values emphasising the differences between people (based on gender, age, and merit) and embodying those values in a set of practices that become part of people’s everyday routine. It’d also be important to emphasise the importance of literacy and the need to transmit cultural knowledge from one generation to the next. The transmission of cultural knowledge should be viewed as an important aspect of maintaining the family lineage. A non-egalitarian, meritocratic view of the world should be emphasised, so that meritocratic, rather than populist, political arrangements and laissez faire, rather than socialist, economic arrangements are tied to the values within families. That is, the family should both emphasise that efforts should be made towards self-improvement and that respect should be shown to one’s betters (note the reciprocity). By emphasising the obligations we have to family members (parent-child, child-parent, husband-wife), you can also avoid the trap of welfarism (it is immoral for the state to provide comprehensive welfare because it undermines familial obligations). Because of the emphasis placed on the family as the basic unit of society, jealousy of “inherited” advantages can be avoid: inheritance should be accorded the same respect as merit and the two things should not be seen as at odds.


    Aeroguy Reply:

    Regression to the mean is still problematic and genius is often a freak mutation. I see it more as rock paper scissors, between tribalists, altruists, and individualists.


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 5:23 pm Reply | Quote
  • SanguineEmpiricist Says:

    From Taleb, model error & ebola graphs!


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 5:37 pm Reply | Quote
  • SanguineEmpiricist Says:


    god damnit. Apparently you got it. Nothing to see here.


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 5:38 pm Reply | Quote
  • sobl Says:

    Thanks for linkage. Next week I’ll get to the perfect retro horror film for our times.


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 6:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alrenous Says:

    Evidence against your will-to-think hypothesis. Intelligence alone isn’t enough. See also the comments. I’m not going to respect someone who knows more trivia than I do and uses it to write plays in verse. Teaching high school is right out.


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 7:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • Rasputin Says:

    Not sure if the ‘organ trafficking’ Ebola angle has already been covered here, but it’s another nice twist to the plausible paranoia:


    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 10:17 pm Reply | Quote
  • SanguineEmpiricist Says:

    I support phalanx, and is definitely a step in the right direction. However I would like to start my own, or already have in the process another group. Any one willing to define any Dark Enlightenment/NRx meta-structure for these groups? We can have alternate aesthetics and structures, but still might want to see what’s going on with each other eventually. Not having multiple large groups will compartmentalize each groups errors/structure to itself and I cannot fathom a few larger groups that will land me under surveillance

    If NRx is ‘Dark’, I think a fun but not so serious aesthetic could be a ‘Dark Brotherhood’ based off of TES pseudo-lore. The entrance to the first sanctuary in Oblivion was “What is the color of night?” “Sanguine, my brother”.

    Fits the
    A) Dark aesthetic
    B) Sanguine roughly lifed from any dictionary = is ‘optimistic or positive, especially in an apparently bad or difficult situation.’
    C) Could change the name to anything else ‘Society of Sanguine Empiricists” etc. Doesn’t have to be a necessarily nerdy, just a soft inspiration.
    D) I don’t go to church so Phalanx doesn’t really work for me and I have my own pet theories about sustainable executable action that will not necessarily work if I meet the moreright people even if I am in the Bay.
    E) Something tells me that because I’m not white meeting NRx Ethno-nationalists isn’t such a great idea.

    Mine will be specifically low-key if acknowledged at all and focus on success in technology sector and established and having taste for not spewing the worst of dark vice even if it is correct.


    SanguineEmpiricist Reply:

    hate to fill up this page with my name, but an additional but crucial part would be at first having a reputation for actually delivering “Civilization building” as an empirical test of metal , and if we do not we will merely step out. A status continuum that emphasizes such traits and personal cultivation “Up to a point” and not petty over-optimizing. soft Aristocratic Egalitarianism after a certain threshold to prevent problems with the opacity of measurement after a certain threshold. [1] A ‘Society’, not a renegade group, direct action, but mere self-interest in each other and to create a soft group of support. I have seen in the comment threads the need for “Positive Institutions”. Someone mentioned how the modern institutions of today trend towards destruction of “Icons” in thread discussing ISIS & Ultra-calvinism thesis. This would be the opposite of that. The building of useful instrumental ‘Icons’, building Icons with western aesthetic(or any).

    Say providing a positive architecture for soft organization. And yes, we will “Talk like a fag” if we must. We will probably admit our enthusiasm for rachet trap music… & enjoy cocaine so our religious rituals are right up the alley with Land here.

    I am already preparing the founding documents. Our personal political system of choice is Doolittle’s as he already has most of the hard thinking covered.

    [1] Emulating the soft difference between needing different tests for normal I.Q. tests and high I.Q. societies.


    Nyan Sandwich Reply:

    Compartmentalization is great, but based on your interests, it sounds like you should talk to Phalanx (ie me).

    First, your concerns:

    >I don’t go to church

    Neither do I; I’m an atheist. Still I would like to, because I think it’s a good idea. That said, Phalanx is going to have to be pretty flexible; not everyone is going to be able to do everything. The point is to be down with most of it.

    >I’m not white

    This is fine. Ethnats want to live in a certain kind of community; that doesn’t mean we can afford to be dogmatic about our allies at this stage.

    We’ve talked this over internally, and while being Anglo-Saxon/White is a plus, it’s not necessary.

    In Vancouver we have a brown muslim, which he makes up for by being a great guy and awesome in other ways.

    I’m loving the Elder Scrolls ‘Dark Brotherhood’ thing, but it’s a bit too much for me.

    Send me an email at and we’ll chat.


    R. Reply:

    Why go to a church?
    Would it not make more sense to intelligently design a religion?

    No Abrahamic faith has a favorable attitude towards human improvement, genetic engineering and many other things that are probably going to be quite important in this century for people who do not wish to end up as pawns.


    Nyan Sandwich Reply:

    I want to do that eventually, but we’re going to factor that out of Phalanx. Starting a *successful religion* is just about the hardest thing you can do, so we won’t front load that onto a mens club.

    Christianity has proven spiritual value and it’s something we can basically all agree on (including atheists like myself), so we’ll use that for now.

    Posted on October 19th, 2014 at 10:27 pm Reply | Quote
  • Hurlock Says:


    There was no such thing as austerity in Europe so stop with that bullshit already. There may have been ‘minimal’ QE by the ECB, but sure as hell there was deficit spending, and overall government spending has been steadily increasing since 2008 in all of those supposedly ‘austere’ countries. Then some clown like you comes along after all this the economy is even worse, and says “Hey, you austrians were wrong, see? We pushed spending up, but we didn’t push it TO THE MAX so by default your theory that if there was a big REDUCTION in government spending the economy would be better must be wrong!!!”
    Do you realize how retarded that sounds? Do you yourself buy the shit that you are typing?
    (Oh and let’s keep in mind that Bank of England has actually been doing QE all this time.)

    My recommendation is not to just have ‘super-tight money’, my recommendation is to freeze the money supply, cut government spending and let the redjustment happen.
    And ‘minimal QE’ is not freezing the money supply. Not a single country froze its money supply.
    Government spending has been increasing. The public sector getting bigger everywhere. Deficits every single year and everywhere still higher than they were at the start of the recession in 2008.
    So please, cut the bullshit already.

    “Bond prices have been RISING into all this QE. Doesn’t that seem strange to you? What this rally in Japanese bond values is saying is that investors don’t believe the BoJ will print ENOUGH money to prevent the economy from sinking back into deflation.”

    ‘Investors’? Oh, you mean the Bank of Japan?
    Which happens to be the biggest holder of japanese government bonds? Gee, this rally sure is something amazing.
    The BOJ with the government sector and the domestic banking sector (which is pretty much part of the government sector) hold over 50% of the japanese government bonds. Over fifty-fucking-percent. Do I need to say more?

    “If the wheels come off it will be because the BoJ gives up and loses heart in QE (which is of course possible). ”
    You just have to BELIEVE MAN, if you believe I am sure it will work….some day…some year….I think….
    No. It wont. Now stop reading blogs by celebrity economists like Scott Sumner and go read a history book. Do something productive with your life.


    Kgaard Reply:

    Well, you buy gold stocks, I’ll buy Japan construction stocks and exporters. We’ll see who wins. Your Europe approach was tried by Herbert Hoover. Worked great.


    Hurlock Reply:

    You really are killing me.

    Herbert Hoover? For fuck’s sake, I am serious, go read a history book.
    Herbert Hoover did exactly the opposite of my approach. He increased spending. His policies set the foundations for the implementation of the New Deal. Herbert Hoover’s economic policy was basically the beta version of the New Deal. Why in the blue hell do you keep presenting policies which I excplicitly oppose, as policies that I am supporting?

    Fucking keynesians.

    Yeah, good luck.


    Kgaard Reply:

    I’m referring to the monetary portion — i.e. no QE. Though in fairness to Hoover, that was more up to the NY Fed. If Benjamin Strong (NY Fed chair) hadn’t died in 1928 we may have had a better response to the bank implosion of 31-33. As it was there was nobody at the helm.

    Also … on gold … I should clarify where I stand on it. Conceptually I’m really neutral at this point. Fed officials have been coming out in recent days saying they are pushing back the likely date when QE will be exited. That’s good. In principle it is gold-positive (and in fact gold has rallied a little).

    Hurlock you really ought to argue your points over at Sumner’s. They are better economists than I am. And if you are really correct you will defeat them. You should try your hand at it — Sumner’s page is the epicenter of market monetarism. He is basically the most influential economist in the world at this point and yet still very accessible. This one on the euro is a good place to start.

    Rasputin Reply:

    Hurlock, please do this.

    Posted on October 20th, 2014 at 10:30 am Reply | Quote
  • Dark Psy-Ops Says:

    I have a whole datasets worth of anecdotes from today, but they’ll make a better story when twisted and convoluted into encrypted/compressed format. Basically it comes down to territory, offline and online, and the fact I currently don’t own a working phone (tech-comm neo-luddism). Talking ‘directly’ about cryptography requires programmatic obfuscation, intentional as well as targeted, in distinction to integral obscurity, which is innate. Staying true to obscurity might be the closest thing we have to truth. Any signal we might give will at least fix us on the map for those anticipating nearby. Whose land are we on anyway? No man’s land. Not even a fringe, more like an anomaly, or a precipice and an impossible free fall. Down staircases going up and up staircases going down. (when does trolling stop getting taken seriously?). Reminds me of this Keats’ line, in Social Matter on Thursday:

    “Heard melodies are sweet, but those unheard/ Are sweeter; therefore, ye soft pipes, play on.”

    Don’t underestimate the silent games of intuition, there’s no such thing as a solipsist. Maybe waiting is the end game. Now there’s a dark thought.


    Posted on October 20th, 2014 at 12:51 pm Reply | Quote
  • Dark Psy-Ops Says:

    Free Northerners Christian apologia was quite spiritually satisfying, even for us non-Christian souls. The pledge of ‘loving obedience’ to Gnon struck me as a noble gesture, though I’d add the disclaimer that by all appearances Gnon appreciates obedience mainly, and tolerates love as a reward for wise observance. I can’t accept Christ as a deified religious authority though…


    Posted on October 20th, 2014 at 1:24 pm Reply | Quote

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