Chaos Patch (#74)

(Open thread + links)

More AnCap tit-for-tat. Don’t lie (really). A dialog on morality. Abrupt denormalization. Your advice was gratefully received. When SJWs attack (plus, and related (I think)). On Left and Right. Saying ‘no‘ to socialism. Limits to the individual. Liberal Christianity (an appreciation). Answering idiots. The occult right. A Canon update. Goodbye (damn). The weekly round.

ISIS analyzed. An outside view of UK education (but it could be worse). More on the Murray plan. A WN case against Brexit (predictably, not persuasive here). A little Singapore gloating. New York on the skids (plus). Overheated claims. Campus jokers.

“… fracking has transformed the [oil] industry into something much more akin to manufacturing than resource extraction.” (Drawing from here.)

The underwhelmed-by-Coates squad (1, 2). Ethnic spats. Stereotypical trolley problems. We want diversity back. “In some form, a Eurafrican future is on its way.”

Six-letter DNA. ‘OK, but IQ doesn’t really have anything to do with intelligence.’ Political argument is pointless. English Submission. Continuing cuckoo squabbles (1, 2, 3).

Reflections on the A-bomb (1, 2), and on Watergate (1, 2). On Ibn Khaldun. Nietzsche’s legacy. Revisiting the frontier. Three speeches by Henry Wallace (1, 2, 3).

August 9, 2015admin 42 Comments »
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42 Responses to this entry

  • Chaos Patch (#74) | Neoreactive Says:

    […] Chaos Patch (#74) […]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 8:50 am Reply | Quote
  • Chris B Says:

    Here an alternative interpretation – Singapore is one of the worst governments by historical standards (and only appearing any good in comparison with the hideous democratic governance everywhere else- a best looking pig in the pen thing) . It is a democracy and it nuked its fertility rate quite effectively through centralization and universal education so that the population is and will be replaced. If this is the flagship for NRx then things don’t look very bright.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    Populations don’t get replaced (by other populations) by default. Look at Japan. Perhaps they get replaced by robots. It’s still a little too early to say.

    [Reply]

    chris b Reply:

    Populations don’t get replaced by default. The Peoples Action Party of Lee aggressivly got the bureaucracy pumping on all cylinders, put in place mass education for women and got them working. Not to forget the enforced multiculturalism. Before they got going the women stayed at home and had children and continued the chinese population that had been doing well for centuries. Lee’s a villain not a hero, and not importing Africans doesn’t change that.

    [Reply]

    Hurlock Reply:

    You are very much misunderstanding Singapore.

    It is laughable to say that Singapore is “multicultural” in the same way modern USA, or any other western country is. Singapore is “multicultural” in the same way that British colonies in the 19th century used to be.
    Lee realized very well that the only way to build a stable society out of a lot of different ethnic groups is to have authoritarianism and strict laws enforced with an iron fist. Because natural social cohesion is lacking among the population because of it is made up of social groups with very different backgrounds, the only way to create social cohesion is to enforce it from above. This type of common sense is completely lost nowadays.

    Lee did not make Singapore multicultural, Singapore was multicultural before Lee. And even with this so-called “multiculturalism” it is blatantly obvious that the ruling class in Singapore share Lee’s background, i.e. the Chinese. Lee didn’t enforce multiculturalism, Singapore’s society was multicultural, always, for historico-geographical reason, Lee simply dealt with the situation in the most efficient way possible. Singapore, contrasted to the West nowadays is an obvious proof that the only way to make a multicultural society work is through authoritarianism. For this at least, he deserves some credit.

    I think Lee also made a conscious choice not to attempt to keep fertility high, and instead to rely on keeping population numbers stable by siphoning high-iq specimens from other countries by making Singapore one of the most attractive places to live on the planet. This might have predominantly negative effects on a global scale, but on the scale of only Singapore, it secures much faster growth and improvement of living standards in the short-term. I think Lee was intelligent enough to realize all of the possible effects his policies might have, but he enforced them anyway, because there really is an argument that short-term these policies are better for Singapore itself.

    To call Lee a villain is a massive stretch. I have no intention of canonizing him as a saint either, but the man was without a doubt one of the most capable statesmen of the 20th century. He did a lot for Singapore and while not all of his policies are optimal long-term he did what he could to secure the elevation of his country to a level higher than virtually any other state in the world in less than half a century. This by itself is a remarkable feat and deserves some applause considering where he started.

    admin Reply:

    “Lee’s a villain not a hero” — most definitely not in my book.

    scientism Reply:

    He intentionally suppressed fertility:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_control_in_Singapore

    And never really reversed the policies because he only wanted educated women to have children.

    Chris B Reply:

    @scientism – putting smart women through education is fucking it up. Giving out leaflets does not correct this. He fucked it up like all progs do.

    [Reply]

    NRx_N00B Reply:

    The West is leading (more like swimming in the direction) the world in the direction of a global-totalitarian-progressive order—the writing all over the wall. No?

    I’m wondering if someone would mind sketching out the important/obvious distinctions between Singapore and a progressive global utopia (an NRx’ers dystopia).

    [Reply]

    Erebus Reply:

    I’d say we’re already there. Does a nation exist which isn’t progressive, paternalistic, and chock full of taxes and bureaucracy? As far as I’m aware, there isn’t a single one that doesn’t tax its inhabitants at rates which would make a medieval peasant rise up in arms. (Wat Tyler and his brethren were made of sterner stuff than men today, that much is certain.)

    What you rightly call the global-totalitarian-progressive order simply has a monopoly on “legitimate government.” In a sentence, this is why things will need to get worse, and more absurd, before things get better. Busting monopolies isn’t easy.

    The mercantile microstates of Singapore, Monaco, and Hong Kong are suffered to exist as pressure-valves, and for various traditional reasons. (Hong Kong as the traditional mercantile gateway into China, and so forth.) They may not last very much longer. HK already has its expiration date, and, at any rate, it seems to become a little bit more like Shenzhen with each passing year. A decade or two of bad governance, courtesy of Harvard and the London School of Economics, will suffice to doom Singapore. Monaco is both small enough to be insignificant, and entirely defenseless.
    There may soon be no pressure-valves, and no escape.

    [Reply]

    NRx_N00B Reply:

    Erebus, thanks for taking the time to comment, I appreciate it.

    “In a sentence, this is why things will need to get worse, and more absurd, before things get better. Busting monopolies isn’t easy.”

    It really does make one wonder if they’ll ever resort to the jackboot—within Western borders—to enforce the progressive order. We live in fascinating times indeed (popcorn).

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 10:24 am Reply | Quote
  • Chaos Patch (#74) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 12:25 pm Reply | Quote
  • Chris B Says:

    @
    Seriously, lauding of Singapore lacks perspective. His governance had more in common with imperial governance then colonial governance.

    As for, “It is laughable to say that Singapore is “multicultural” in the same way modern USA, or any other western country is.” mandatory quotas on ethnic composition of accommodation last time I checked. USA is currently replicating. Sounds wonderful.

    “but the man was without a doubt one of the most capable statesmen of the 20th century” – again, lacking perspective. How exactly do you think he would have been viewed by anyone pre 19th C? Probably would have thought he was a lunatic.

    “he did what he could to secure the elevation of his country to a level higher than virtually any other state in the world in less than half a century. ” stuff everyone’s mouths with gold, burn society to the ground by centralizing everything within two generations, and bask in glory – How people criticize black people for having a high time preference when you’ve got westerners doing the “gonna get dat loot or die trying” thing on a civilizational scale is beyond me.

    [Reply]

    chris b Reply:

    You want outsideness, there is no half measures. Condemn singapore.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    Condemn Singapore? Because its government hasn’t found a way to generate high-fertility cognitive elites? No government has, or perhaps even could. Why the hell would we start our round of denunciations with what is in just about every other respect the most competent regime on the planet? That way lies Utopian lunacy.

    [Reply]

    Chris B Reply:

    “Why the hell would we start our round of denunciations with what is in just about every other respect the most competent regime on the planet?”

    (note sure if my comment is lost in moderation or my browser crashed)

    Why not? start with the best then burn your pots and boats and move on. If you are going to sit around jacking off over a progressive democracy just because it is less insane then the rest you are not going anywhere. Sinagapore has mass female participation in education and the workforce, joke fertility created by government changes in the past 60+ years and distributive welfare. By all metrics of pre-19th century governance the place is a lunatic asylum. Pointing that out is anything but Utopian.

    michael Reply:

    it does seem to come down to educated working women, so even with an iron fist in a multicultural country eventually the elites become too few to keep an iron fist and in a japan they become too few to do anything, so I wonder what a NRX patriarchy might strive for

    Shlomo Maistre Reply:

    Admin,

    “Because its government hasn’t found a way to generate high-fertility cognitive elites? No government has, or perhaps even could.”

    Israel has.

    admin Reply:

    Is Israel’s (admittedly) high-fertility domestically eugenic?

    Shlomo Maistre Reply:

    Admin,

    “Is Israel’s (admittedly) high-fertility domestically eugenic?”

    Yes, it is.

    The ultra-orthodox culture (particularly the Haredim) is the reservoir of high IQ from which the Jewish geniuses that achieved so much in the secular world have been drawn for centuries. The culture of the ultra orthodox rewards male intelligence with marital success and offspring.

    The real future, though, lies with religious zionists within Israel or what in the USA and broader diaspora are known as modern orthodox. These are high IQ, high achieving elites that are REPLACING the secular ashkenazi in positions of power across society.

    http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Religious-Zionism-taking-over-Israel-ex-Shin-Bet-chief-warns-411499

    By the way, Nick, thank you always for linking to my blog on your website. It makes me feel good in this bleak world.

    Erebus Reply:

    “Israel has.”

    –How? And do you think it’s possible that whatever worked in Israel can be replicated in Europe or E.Asia? (I’m assuming regional instability, religiosity, a sense of shared destiny, etc…)

    “The ultra-orthodox culture (particularly the Haredim) is the reservoir of high IQ from which the Jewish geniuses that achieved so much in the secular world have been drawn for centuries. The culture of the ultra orthodox rewards male intelligence with marital success and offspring.”

    –The separation between the secular and the ultra-orthodox cultures reminds me of Neal Stephenson’s Anathem… But do the ultra-orthodox sustain themselves, as the monks in that book did, or do they rely upon social care & government programs?
    …It is interesting, at any rate.

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 12:41 pm Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    Thank you for the linkage, as always, and the well-researched list of interesting stuff to read. Sunday is coffee, blogs, and pipe to the soundtrack of the slow grinding collapse of this world.

    [Reply]

    Richard P. Reply:

    I agree. We are sffering from information overload, so it is good to cut to the chase, on Sunday mornings.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 2:01 pm Reply | Quote
  • haishan Says:

    Re the computer and the IQ test: IQ is a statistical model of intelligence — it’s a very good model, contra Gould and Shalizi and various other communists, but it’s a model validated on human data. Therefore, you shouldn’t trust it to measure intelligence far outside the region it’s been validated on. (For instance, it’s hard to imagine getting a chimpanzee to take an IQ test.)

    Compare chess: computers today are much better than the best humans at chess. A mid-end laptop running Stockfish could probably play a match against Magnus Carlsen without losing a single game. In addition, skill at chess correlates very well with what we think of as intelligence, and top chess players need a high minimum level of intelligence to be successful. But the things that make Stockfish good at chess — the ability to play out potential sequences of moves to a deep level, and an evaluation function honed by centuries of CPU time’s worth of reinforcement learning — are not the things that differentiate human players at chess. Stockfish is designed to solve the specific problem of chess; humans are designed to be very flexible problem-solvers.

    [Reply]

    Alrenous Reply:

    Chessplaying machines are not thinking machines.
    These machines rapidly execute the instructions given to them by their programmers. When a single player plays such a machine, they are playing, essentially, the entire programming team at once, and the programming team gets turns measured in years instead of minutes. It is not surprising that the single human loses, it is surprising that the team doesn’t always win in not just chess, but every game.

    [Reply]

    haishan Reply:

    Right, I agree with this. But the IQ test-taking program is not a thinking machine either. (I’m not sure what it would mean for a computer program not to “rapidly execute the instructions given to [it] by [its] programmers” — I’m inclined to call that a case of the computer not working.)

    From a quick scan of the paper, the way the test-taking program works is: (a) it uses natural language processing techniques to classify verbal IQ questions into types: analogy, “one of these words is not like the others,” synonym, antonym. (b) It “reads” the entire corpus of the English Wikipedia (3 billion words) and uses that, plus information about synonyms and antonyms obtained from dictionaries, to represent each English word as a high-dimensional vector. (c) It uses those vectors to solve each type of problems. (So synonyms should be vectors with a small distance between them, and analogies are represented by v_1 – v_3 = v_2 – v_4, etc.) Needless to say, this is not the way humans learn to solve these test questions, and so we shouldn’t make the same kind of inferences for computers as we do for humans.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 3:35 pm Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    Six-letter DNA, that one seems like biggest thing after SIRNA in molecular biology.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 4:43 pm Reply | Quote
  • Richard P. Says:

    Great article re: ISIS analyzed. It’s interesting to note that My Jihad loosely translates into My Struggle. The Sunni elites currently pulling strings behind the ISIS curtains could be compared to the National Socialists, in Germany before taking power in the 30’s.

    [Reply]

    SVErshov Reply:

    this analysis maybes good attempt to fill the gap in NRx understanding of military affairs. But still many question remains unanswered and main question is why ISIS so effective. First of all, because it was not the first such project run by US and Saudis. First was in Chechnya and Russia would not exist now if not Putin’s interference. This time they have perfect idea what have to be done, how to structure ISIS, how fund and how to start all things. Same person, who orchestrated Chechen war was send to create ISIS. For more information on this topic I would recommend to search for “ISIS” on strategic-culture.org

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 5:25 pm Reply | Quote
  • Mark Citadel Says:

    Thanks for the link, Nick. An ‘appreciation’ indeed.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 8:40 pm Reply | Quote
  • freihals Says:

    I appreciate the link to my article. As always you provide interesting and informative links to material that challenge new and old conceptualizations, alike.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 9th, 2015 at 11:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • Shlomo Maistre Says:

    http://www.samizdata.net/2015/08/samizdata-quote-of-the-day-599/#comment-688038

    Snorri Godhi,

    Trying to justify natural law, or any moral code, is bound to lead to one of the horns of Agrippa’s trilemma: an infinite regress, or circular reasoning, or dogmatism.

    The rabbit hole it is then.

    Truth is inherently so.

    It seems to me that Agrippa’s trilemma is a handy way to characterize the inherent pitfalls one encounters by rejecting the truth of universals – in this case, in trying to construct a moral code (that is both viable and benevolent).

    As something of a fanatic I stumbled upon just such a moral code – a code of conduct inherently viable and absolutely benevolent – out of a supremely stubborn quest for the true moral code. The realism and goodness of truth never fails to impress.

    Accepting universals lends a particular credence to the original truth of the Creator. Let’s investigate why this is.

    In a certain sense the Creator is the universal universal – the inherent origin from which all reality stems. Make no mistake – this is Plato’s sacred One that is the only thing he refused to put in writing. Given the unified and singular essence of the origin of all that is, one may deduce that reality unfolds in a centrifugal, entropic manner as time passes. The disorder wrought by time, in other words, is inherent.

    Any code of conduct is only good or true or right inasmuch as it contributes to the eternal goodness of the centripetal force in the universe. The wellspring of socially centripetal consequences in the world is obedience. Well-meaning libertarians recoil at this word, but insofar as the life, liberty and property of man has been safeguarded, it is primarily obedience – obedience to authority, obedience to the credible threat of force, obedience to one’s conscience – that has rendered such an end.

    In assuming that things are as they ought to be, things become closer to how they should be.

    In assuming that power is perceived as it ought to be, power is realized with less severity and less frequency.

    In assuming that influence is distributed as it ought to be, action to modify the distribution of influence is undertaken with less severity and less frequency.

    Agrippa’s trilemma is born of reason, but it’s faith (in authority) and not reason that forms the final path to a moral code.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 10th, 2015 at 12:29 am Reply | Quote
  • Shlomo Maistre Says:

    The following is what he wrote:

    Trying to justify natural law, or any moral code, is bound to lead to one of the horns of Agrippa’s trilemma: an infinite regress, or circular reasoning, or dogmatism.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 10th, 2015 at 12:30 am Reply | Quote
  • michael Says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/fashion/change-for-a-bowie-the-advent-of-artisanal-cash.html?_r=0

    did you know theres hippie patches out there with their own cash

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 10th, 2015 at 2:40 am Reply | Quote
  • NRx_N00B Says:

    “Stereotypical trolley problems. We want diversity back. “In some form, a Eurafrican future is on its way.””

    —-
    For anyone interested, the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government website has a treasure trove of papers covering Cathedral ethics (i.e. fodder for NRx deconstructionists). Speculation: since “Westerners” have burnt through a vastly disproportionate share of the planets resource endowment, if/when we crash through the Malthusian basement it’ll probably only strengthen their resolve for justice (buy lots of popcorn).

    ““… fracking has transformed the [oil] industry into something much more akin to manufacturing than resource extraction.” (Drawing from here.)”

    —-
    Nick, if/when you have some time, please listen to Art Berman’s talk on the financialization of the “unconventional” exploration & production game (perhaps you could share your thoughts—I think he’s right, only time will tell, hmmmm ….more popcorn):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ReQXL9t_-k

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    Thanks. (I tend to tilt the other way — but I can see why the peaky case would look persuasive to people.)

    Being correct on the narrow point concerning US domestic unconventional hydrocarbons resources doesn’t necessarily say that much. Methane hydrate is the big prospect.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    Leaving aside the (crucial) question of the tech-driven production cost trend, one important point that Evans-Pritchard makes, and seems to go missing from Berman’s story, is:

    “… But even if scores of over-leveraged wild-catters go bankrupt as funding dries up, it will not do OPEC any good. […] The wells will still there. The technology and infrastructure will still there. Stronger companies will mop up on the cheap, taking over the operations. Once oil climbs back to $US60 or even $US55 – since the threshold keeps falling – they will crank up production almost instantly.”

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 11th, 2015 at 3:52 am Reply | Quote
  • Reactionary Expat Says:

    @Chris B I think it is premature for some people to talk of Singapore’s success. I wouldn’t be surprised if Singapore falls apart within the next couple of generations. Who says Singapore hasn’t been gripped by the insanity of the West? http://thisissgchineseprivilege.tumblr.com

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 12th, 2015 at 10:11 am Reply | Quote
  • B Says:

    Sarah Perry really should avoid theme park metaphors. Her writing is a Lazy River of New Yorker sophistication, slowly floating along with immense artisanal value, competently pretending that the road is the destination.

    It’s hard not to like her pessimistic nihilism, but everything she writes is like listening to women tell stories. Oh, wait…

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 13th, 2015 at 8:02 pm Reply | Quote
  • Mark Warburton Says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODWojrWevlo

    Nick, have you seen this yet? Thought this scene might register with you.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    I’d forgotten how great that was.

    [Reply]

    Posted on August 15th, 2015 at 7:09 pm Reply | Quote
  • «NO BIRTH WITHOUT SCHIZM.» | Says:

    […] Given the unified and singular essence of the origin of all that is, one may deduce that reality unfolds in a centrifugal, entropic manner as time passes. The disorder wrought by time, in other words, is inherent. [²] […]

    Posted on July 27th, 2016 at 2:36 am Reply | Quote

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