Chaos Patch (#91)

(Open thread + links)

A Christian approach to genocide (and comment). A call to sobriety. Cultural fragility. The enablers. Psychology of losing (plus tweaked social typology). The political case for Plato. The weekly round.

A puppet in Germany. Social chaos in Venezuela. Those subversive Saudis (plus OPEC is dead, see also). Heading into Cold War II. Colonialism II. Fear a world without growth (plus nightmare fuel). Misreading the Great Depression. Hobbes is back. Siberia’s Chinese future.

“The greater freedom for private governance provided by liberal states allows for adaptive flexibility in solving public problems in ways that promote peace and prosperity, and consequently liberal states will outcompete illiberal states through cultural group selection, which includes competition in war.”

Trumpenführer panic update (1, 2, 3). Brown scare. Joseph McCarthy did nothing wrong. Latest star of the Le Pen dynasty. ‘Liberals’ today. Pure ideology. Default settings.

The kebabed canary in the coal mine. A tale of two civilizational civil wars (1, 2, 3, 4), plus video.

Some CRISPR backstory (and thought points). International Summit on Human Gene Editing, official statement. Conformist intelligence. Idiocracy in France. Neuronal factors determining high intelligence. The AA generation. African demographics. Assisted jewdar.

Intolerance wins. The value of stereotypes. Gregory Hood on Ayn Rand. The whig history of science. English is odd. Doomsday decoded. The mortal tedium of A.J. Ayer. Occidental asemic writing (also).

The off-planet frontier (and its enemies). The future of drones. The Hyperloop race. Techno-metaphysics. IoT infographic.

Full-spectrum Climate Apocalypse (1, 2, 3).

December 6, 2015admin 28 Comments »

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28 Responses to this entry

  • Chaos Patch (#91) | Neoreactive Says:

    […] By admin […]

    Posted on December 6th, 2015 at 1:42 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alrenous Says:

    I recently found out the supposed climate ekpyrosis is weaksauce compared to some recent cataclysms.


    Posted on December 6th, 2015 at 3:05 pm Reply | Quote
  • grey enlightenment Says:

    In a word, with a printing press. But what happened today is that Draghi showed he is out of tricks and Yellen confessed she is out of excuses.

    Yes, this sucker is going down. And this time all the misguided economics professors turned central bankers in the world will be powerless to reverse the plunge.

    Yawn… haven’t they been predicting collapse since 2009? It gets old after awhile.There have only been two financial crisis in the past 100 years 1929 and 2008..the odds are there won’t be another one in our lifetimes, unless you’re six years old and reading this blog.

    M2 velocity is sill very low and the currency in circulation hasn’t grown beyond it’s historical growth rate.

    All this monetary policy can be likened to taking a bunch of money, putting in a safe, and melting the key. It hasn’t gone into the economy.

    The stock market and economy is doing well because of fundamentals such as record high profits & earnings and consumer spending, not because of central bank policy. Central bank policy may have helped a little, but it’s hardly the major contributing factor. If the US economy were dependent on QE, why have stocks surged 25% since May 2013 when the fed announced they were going to end QE?

    Indeed, for a short period of time the brunt of the industrial production adjustment occurred in China and the EM. In effect, China and its supply chain had become the exporter/creditors of the present era.

    .., but China only owns 8% of the national debt, although the media hype may make it seem like they own all of it.

    Likewise, labor productivity has stalled dramatically. Since the pre-crisis peak nonfarm business productivity has grown by only 1.1% annually or at just half its historic 2.3% rate. Moreover, during the last five years productivity has grown at just 0.4% per annum.

    Not sure what he’s taking about. Productivity seem in-line with historical trends:


    admin Reply:

    If it’s all going to be OK, the Cathedral wins. End of story. Anything other than the hunt for a comfy sinecure under that prediction is simple masochism.


    grey enlightenment Reply:

    I’m partial to not having things fall apart, would hurt a lot of productive people to have collapse,. Hurt wage earners, businesses, etc.

    There are better ways of dealing with the Cathedral than resetting everything.

    The want or desire to see crisis when the evidence doesn’t support it strikes me as wishful thinking,


    Alrenous Reply:

    >There are better ways of dealing with the Cathedral than resetting everything.

    Such as?

    grey enlightenment Reply:

    but collapse doesn’t guarantee the Cathedral won’t be rebuilt. I predict instead of collapse, due to public pressure, policy makers will gradually enact reforms to deal with problems such as entitlement spending and immigration.

    Erebus Reply:

    “[…] due to public pressure, policy makers will gradually enact reforms to deal with problems such as entitlement spending and immigration.”

    It’s not easy to put those genies back into their bottles. I don’t think that this is possible. Not without blood. Besides, the past 120 years should have taught you a thing or two about trusting policy makers. (In a word: Don’t.)

    Let’s talk about Europe for a moment. Even if France, Sweden, and Germany gradually curb immigration and entitlements, wouldn’t you say that the damage has already been done? Wouldn’t you say, additionally, that this damage is irreversible — and will only get worse, can only fester like an open wound — unless drastic (and likely bloody) measures are taken?

    Alrenous Reply:

    So your strategy is to wait because it will turn out well in the end?

    Hurlock Reply:

    “There have only been two financial crisis in the past 100 years 1929 and 2008”



    grey enlightenment Reply:

    Maybe SNL could count as a third., but it wasn’t nearly as bad as 2008 or 1929. There were many more crisis in foreign countries though, but I’m only counting crisis in the US.


    Orthodox Reply:

    Nearly every financial crisis in the whole world, from 1945 until today, is to some extent a U.S. dollar crisis because it is the reserve currency of the world. Just since 1980s, the Latin American debt crisis, S&L crisis, Asian Currency crisis/Russian debt default and 2008 are all the same crisis playing out in different forms. Excess credit growth versus deflationary forces in the reserve currency. Anytime the U.S. decides to hike rates or reduce deficit spending, something blows up. Emerging markets could see a crisis much larger than 1997 next year because China may not avoid it. China avoided crisis in 1997 because it massively devalued first in 1994.

    Mike Reply:

    The US has just had its worst few years for labour productivity growth since the late 70s, early 80s – that’s probably what he’s referring to. Check the productivity thing at the BLS website.

    Then again, the mid-90s wasn’t too flash either, but that was only three years, and before the productivity juggernaut of 1996-2004 exploded.


    Posted on December 6th, 2015 at 3:24 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alrenous Says:

    There is a dominant society-wide social status system. It is supposed to reward those who support or embody X and punish those who oppose it.

    What is X supposed to be? What is the socially-acceptable way to describe the highest-status person?


    Frog Do Reply:

    Define your terms very rigourously if you want a real answer. But I suspect the purpose of asking poorly worded, poorly thought out questions like this is more a performative display of “intelligence” than an actual attempt at communication, as per your twitter account.


    Alrenous Reply:

    Struck a nerve, did I?
    Instead of being petulant, try upping your game. Make my accusation false. Make my accusation ridiculous.


    Posted on December 6th, 2015 at 5:41 pm Reply | Quote
  • Chaos Patch (#91) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on December 6th, 2015 at 6:23 pm Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    Thank you for linking us. And an article on Plato too, at a good time for such things.

    “The greater freedom for private governance provided by liberal states allows for adaptive flexibility in solving public problems in ways that promote peace and prosperity, and consequently liberal states will outcompete illiberal states through cultural group selection, which includes competition in war.”

    My tech background has me looking at this not as a linear binary, but as a spectrum over time. Try this: liberal states have the initial advantage because they create an artificial boom in purchasing by the newly enfranchised, but over time this fades; illiberal states always have less wealth and fewer international immigrants of high quality, but are able to avoid the boom-bust cycle, so if they just manage to avoid war against the superior industrial power (via finance) of the liberal states, they can watch them crumble within a century.

    My reasonableism on genocide is that it’s always a stupid idea. Reparations and deportation can happen for less than our yearly budget in welfare and bennies, and end the problem without creating a new historical wound — especially for people like the third world, who are grievance experts from time immemorial.


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    The major problem with looking at liberal societies, together with the technological progress they enable, as a short-term symptom of cyclic epochs of unsustainable growth, destined to crest like the windswept surf, precarious against the rushing undercurrents of ill-fated entropy, before crashing flat into the immutable shores of eternity, is that such a Druidic perspective fails to account for what it most anomalous in history, namely the industrial revolution and modern techno-capitalism. This is dangerous for several reasons, but we could look at it through the question of genocide easily enough, for though it may always be a stupid idea, it’s still an historical occurrence of some regularity – – Organizing a society around reactionary values of a ceaseless and eternal good has a lot going for it, but if we lump in technological progress with social progress as two faces of the same Janus, then I’m reminded of an old saying about babies and bathwater. Does the material gains of liberal society lead to social decay by way of Malthusian relaxation, or does wealth invite social decay by incentivizing mass immigration and parasitism? It could be a mix of both. Is it more likely that financialized, globalizing liberal states spell the end for illiberal, insular states, or is it rather that a liberal state becomes illiberal on its path to ruin, as opportunist populists and demotic leaders take credit for social accumulation and cultural capital, and succeed in power by way of bribing their newly elected constituency? I would suggest the latter scenario has been far more prevalent in modern politics.

    There’s no switch that can deactivate capitalist crises-mode, only accelerated production can build a temporary buffer. Capitalism creates crises, as the Marxist’s say, but they simplify the mechanism as always. I think it is a program to ward off an intractable catastrophic limit by peremptorily engineering crises that, although uncontrolled, are induced in order to strengthen the system via creative destruction. The difference between capitalism and socialism is the former ceaselessly wagers itself, even in its moments of greatest integrity. It is insecure because security is a liability, and growth, synonymous with long-term survival (from a capitalist mind-set), is stimulated often and most surely with the removal of protective layers. These same layers for which socialists never tire in demanding there implementation, now only prove themselves the greatest risk, for instead of getting one step ahead of the inevitability of failure and systemic crash, entropy and crises, as does the capitalist by rebuilding infrastructure before it seems necessary, or promptly innovating a mode of production that still may appear durable, the socialist gives us a whole new ontology, one where crises never happens but where it is artificially desired, and the ceaseless imperative to growth is understood not by way of a cosmic structure of negentropic systems, but in terms of a particular political psychology, the ‘bourgeois’ or ‘neo-liberal’. This disavowal of flux and inherent risk and cataclysm in the very order of the cosmos does nothing to relieve the inevitable socialist collapse, but is only ‘postponed’ by ignoring the general build-up of chaos and stagnation, until the state is so weakened it dies on its own, or is perhaps helped along by a more successful neighbor. The main point is that even the slow release and inhibition of conservative traditionalism does not build a society that will last forever, and to simply wait for the collapse of modernity and the advanced weaponry, urban statecraft, and volatile futurology that accompanies it, does not in fact offer native populations the surety and certainty of enduring security that they are seeking. But, if China can’t convince NRx that long-term survival in the international environment will not be won by isolationist policies and reducing global trade, I’m not going to pretend I can.


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    Also, I realize four days later is a bit much to be posting a reply to this, but still, I thought your comment was humorous, and it gave me a few ideas. Hopefully it’s still read.


    Posted on December 6th, 2015 at 6:46 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alrenous Says:

    Do I have to prove that coercion is a kind of defection, or is that sufficiently obvious?


    Posted on December 7th, 2015 at 12:27 am Reply | Quote
  • Seth Says:

    Sometimes Jim is Jim and sometimes Jim is an extreme parody of Jim and sometimes you can’t tell which is which.


    4candles Reply:

    No one parodies Hemingway better than Hemingway.


    Posted on December 7th, 2015 at 3:51 am Reply | Quote
  • Xoth Says:

    I was taken aback to see that NRx now has discreetly infiltrated popular television. It looked like a side story to the main mystery but the character Maurice Antonov (any similarities of initials must surely be coincidental) in the episode “Evidence of Things not Seen” of Elementary turns out to be an academic reactionary/monarchist who lures the intelligent to join his quietly louche cause; Holmes of course, while of vast intellect, disdains such undemocratic philosophy. I unfortunately missed how this was resolved.


    Grotesque Body Reply:

    The actor they went with has the Bostrom look down pat:


    Posted on December 8th, 2015 at 12:14 am Reply | Quote
  • Grotesque Body Says:

    Persuing that Siberia link, it looks like Putin is getting cucked pretty comprehensively by Xi.


    Posted on December 8th, 2015 at 11:49 pm Reply | Quote
  • Erebus Says:

    LessWrong’s Gwern just wrote a very interesting article for Wired:

    He claims, very convincingly, to have discovered the person behind Bitcoin’s “Satoshi Nakamoto”.

    …The “Tessier-Ashpool” shit is surreal, too.


    Posted on December 9th, 2015 at 11:03 am Reply | Quote
  • Joseph Moroco Says:

    al fin has been predicting Russia’s demise since forever. Somehow he misses there are problems with the US future that may be worse.


    Posted on December 9th, 2015 at 3:23 pm Reply | Quote

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