Demography is Destiny

For a blast of sudden, icy clarity, this is worth recalling:

After decades of American Ed theorists and politicians grumbling about our low ranking on international tests, we now know that, as Steve Sailer summarized in 2010, reviewing the PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) results from the previous year:
* Asian Americans outscored every Asian country, and lost out only to the city of Shanghai, China’s financial capital.
* White Americans students outperformed the national average in every one of the 37 historically white countries tested, except Finland (which is, perhaps not coincidentally, an immigration restrictionist nation where whites make up about 99 percent of the population).
* Hispanic Americans beat all eight Latin American countries.
* African Americans would likely have outscored any sub-Saharan country, if any had bothered to compete. The closest thing to a black country out of PISA’s 65 participants is the fairly prosperous oil-refining Caribbean country of Trinidad and Tobago, which is roughly evenly divided between blacks and South Asians. African Americans outscored Trinidadians by 25 points.

Racially disaggregate a conundrum that has tortured progressive education reformers for over a century, and it entirely disappears. Non-discrimination is mental and cultural chaos.

April 16, 2015admin 35 Comments »
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35 Responses to this entry

  • Demography is Destiny | Neoreactive Says:

    […] By admin […]

    Posted on April 16th, 2015 at 10:20 am Reply | Quote
  • Dark Psy-Ops Says:

    No wait a second, have they tried engaging the students in a way that includes and positively reinforces their individual and cultural differentiation? Sociological research (from a prominent astrologist named ZARA STARQUEST) suggests that hypothetical students of all backgrounds and abilities are 5000 times more likely to achieve academic success if curriculum is personalized to account for the sun’s longitudinal passage through the zodiacal ecliptic coordinate system in relation to said student’s astrological designation.

    (in before any astrologists call bullshit)


    Posted on April 16th, 2015 at 11:49 am Reply | Quote
  • Lesser Bull Says:

    Does this mean that ed school educational techniques are actually pretty useful? Or is there just something in the American zeitgeist that stimulates the mind to a certain degree? Because if I’m reading this right, Americans are actually kicking the world’s ass once you account for race, which is not the result I would have expected.


    admin Reply:

    Surprised me too (but data are data).


    scientism Reply:

    Sailer has a bunch of caveats on US performance in the original article:

    First: in 2009, the U.S. did slightly better in reading than in science, and moderately better in science than in math. So, my top graph, showing the 2009 reading results, puts America’s best foot forward in what ought to be a three-legged race. But of course I can’t show you PISA scores by ethnicity for 2009 in science and math because they are, apparently, federal secrets.

    Second: my top chart does not offer a true apples-to-apples comparison of whites in America to whites in other traditionally white countries. For example, New Zealand whites scored 541 on reading in 2009, 16 points above American whites. But the Kiwis’ national scores are dragged down somewhat by the indigenous Maori and by Pacific Islander immigrants, who do more for the current competitiveness of New Zealand’s national rugby team than for the future competitiveness of its 21st Century economy.

    Third: America pays royally for the results we do get. We spend more per student than any country in the world, other than Luxembourg, a small, rich tax haven. We spend about fifty percent more per student than Finland does.


    admin Reply:

    “But the Kiwis’ national scores are dragged down somewhat by the indigenous Maori and by Pacific Islander immigrants …” Yes, that’s why Derbyshire puts so much emphasis on the Finnish demographics. The cross-country comparisons are only racially disaggregated on the American side.


    scientism Reply:

    Since there are ethnic breakdowns for the science scores for the 2006 test and math scores for the 2003 test, I figured I’d compare those to the scores for those years too. According to the data, US-Asians score worse than US-whites in math and science and only out perform them in reading. Here are the results:

    In 2006 science stats:

    – US-whites 4th after Korea, Finland and Canada

    – US-Asians tied with Germany at 14th; both Korea (1st) and Japan (9th), the only two Asian countries tested that year, did much better

    In 2003 math stats:

    – US-whites 16th after Hong Kong, Finland, Korea, Netherlands, Liechtenstein, Japan, Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, Macao, New Zealand, Australia, Czech Republic, Iceland and Denmark

    – US-Asians joint 18th with Austria

    US-Asian math score was 506 and US-white 512, whereas Hong Kong: 550, Korea: 542, Japan: 534, Macao: 527. The bad scores for US-Asians are probably because ‘Asian’ is inclusive of South and South East Asians who test poorly. But the severity of the gap between both US-Asians and US-whites with East Asians indicates that the reading scores aren’t really representative of overall performance.

    scientism Reply:

    Additional note: I wonder about the objectivity of cross cultural comparisons of reading. Aren’t some languages and writing systems just more difficult than others?

    spandrell Reply:

    I’d say it’s something in the Asian American zeitgeist that’s conducive to study.

    Asians in their home countries have plenty of social niches to fill up. But you don’t see much Asian gangsters in the US; they can’t compete in the being rough arena with other races. So they follow their comparative advantage and do cram school. Because that’s what Asians do.


    SanguineEmpiricist Reply:

    there are plenty of asian gangs that compete and next to mexican organized crime in california, asian are the best.


    Psmith Reply:

    Indeed. Anybody remember Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy Chow?

    Bob Reply:

    I think he means street gangs, not like triads.

    Bob Reply:

    In Vancouver and British Columbia, there aren’t many blacks and Hispanics, and the drug trade and gang activity is dominated by white gangs like the Hells Angels, the triads, multiethnic gangs like the Red Scorpions and the United Nations gang, East Indian gangs, suburban Canadian gangsters like the Bacon Brothers, etc. There was a major gang war a few years ago:


    vxxc2014 Reply:

    OK so are we done giving up now?


    Now lets kick some ass.


    Posted on April 16th, 2015 at 12:29 pm Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    School was a lot less boring when everyone could perform.

    Once you start getting a mix of intelligences, there’s a big problem.

    The Asiatics, although they score high on IQ tests, seem to do poorly with critical thinking.


    admin Reply:

    The final point is fair, but if we go down that road it behoves us to be more generous about other unacknowledged cognitive talents that are not captured well by IQ tests among all racial groups, and not just caucasoids — otherwise it sounds like special pleading. For instance, both Sailer and Sowell have things worth noting about African-ancestry comparative advantages, perhaps most convincingly in rapid improvisation.


    Brett Stevens Reply:

    I understand the risk, but I think it’s an important secondary topic.

    If you say it’s about IQ, people encourage Eurasianism, and you get a future Russia.


    Phil Reply:

    Russians aren’t “Eurasian” and their IQ level is within European norms.

    an inanimate aluminum tube Reply:

    It’s def. relevant to understanding the full picture.

    For example, Australian Aborigines have a measured IQ that is hilariously low but they do seem to surpass whites in measured visuo-spatial memory.

    The usefulness of this kind of memory to hunter gatherers is obvious.


    johnson 18 Reply:

    A risk? I disagree. It’s obvious that there are many different positives and negatives of cognitive functioning. IQ is a strong measurement stick, it would appear. At the same time I have no doubt in my mind that there must be a better measurement method/device. For me, the purpose for measuring intelligence, or “capacity,” is to have a reliable measuring stick that can easily tell us which people should be privileged by the society.

    The thing is, I genuinely do not believe that hard-core IQ is the only reliable measure. Maybe I am going off on my own tangent here, and I don’t expect agreement whatsoever from anyone. But for me, I want to live in a society where the best able are given the loudest voice, and things are structured in a rational manner around a respect for human evolutionary differences and progress, and evolution is guided properly.

    So ultimately I see that IQ is not the only measure, there are other positive values that exist that have to be taken into account, beyond mere “intelligence,” when guiding biological progress.


    SanguineEmpiricist Reply:

    See Stanovich’s last two books plus Barkley on exec functioning for much better metrics.

    Izak Reply:

    When the ebonics legislation was proposed in Oakland, that could have been a positive step toward reinstituting a soft “separate but equal” sort of situation where the linguistic qualities and cognitive strengths of each group could have been used to produce better results. Instead the conservatives attacked its principles because they’re stupid.


    Lesser Bull Reply:

    They attacked its principles because it was mockable and got them love from ordinary people and made Democrats look stupid. In other words, because their incentives were bad.


    Izak Reply:

    Word up. Actually I misspoke, the conservatives didn’t attack its principles, they just sort of attacked it based on a (deliberate? forced?) misunderstanding.

    Posted on April 16th, 2015 at 12:49 pm Reply | Quote
  • Mark Minter Says:

    Back in the mid 90s, I had this Chinese developer who worked with me. He was hardcore Chinese, meaning “very” and from the People’s Republic, not from some Hong Kong or Shanghai sort of place. I was going on about the “Model Minority” thing. We were close, shared an office, and were quite familiar with each others lives. So I was proclaiming about how well the Chinese had done in America. They had been the most frequent other ethnic group in software up until that time and then subsequent invasion of south Asians.

    And the guy totally brushed of the idea that the success of the Chinese was a “Chinese” thing.

    He said, “It is the Chinese that are here. The fact they are here says that had what it took to get here, to excel in China well enough to even get in the position to come here. Most had to score well enough on aptitude tests to get into the programs in China, and to success in them, before they would even be considered for coming here. Then to be here and function in a second language in high level academics filters them. You think that people on the street in China are like that.. And they are not. I know these people. You don’t. The average person on the street in China is more stupid than in America. Only the best get here and only the best of that best can stay here.”

    And the test scores of “Asians” bear that out. The “northeast” Asians in America score better than those that came in via other means that merit, the Filipinos are the best example, even the Vietnamese. While some the latter can perform very well, the overall group and the longevity of that performance has not been as consistent.

    It is as if there was some IQ “Jimmy the Greek” outcome. Jimmy has scandalously suggested that Blacks were bred via slavery, like livestock, to be superior physical specimens and this reflected their athletic prowess. And thus the wringer of American academic selection vetted Chinese entrants for IQ, ability, as well as conscientiousness. One mistake along the road to selection, a lack of ability here, a lack of diligence there, a lack of character here, a lack of impulse control there, and it was back to China. How many of any ethnic group members, especially whites, never misstep along the path to getting a Master’s Degree, especially in a foreign country in a foreign language.

    It was really one of the great “failures” in Immigration Policy that the H1B program allows Indians from backwater provinces, graduates of tech schools of dubious caliber, from low socio-economic strata were able to walk right in to US without the hard core vetting of the prior University based gauntlet to screen not only for ability but also for assimilation.


    Alrenous Reply:

    I almost recalled this and then got distracted. Even where American immigration is open, it’s not completely without filtering.
    Even the illegals are filtered, though in the wrong way. They’re selected only for dissatisfaction with their life in Mexico and willingness to break laws. Being illegal they of course don’t have to attend school and registering for PISA is probably pure trouble for them.


    Hanfeizi Reply:

    Yes- the Chinese who are in the US are filtered according to two factors- skill and initiative. The ones who sneak in, start their restaurant and raise kids who go on to become middle-class professionals are just as self-selected as the ones that make it through the gauntlet of the Chinese education system and come over as professionals themselves. Never underestimate diligence and sheer balls- they can make up for having fewer IQ points (see, also, one of the differences between East Asia and Northern Europe).

    I noticed the same thing in China as well. People who worked exclusively with the Chinese professional class and urban elites are often wowed by how effective they are. People who have to work with their factory labor and service workers often wondered what they did with their brains- they make their American and Mexican counterparts look impressive by comparison. Not universally, of course- but talent in such fields was a rare thing, and the minute you find a talented and conscientious low-level employee- be it a cashier, an ayi, a technician or even (or especially!) a janitor- hold on to them for dear life, because it will be difficult to find another who will take their job so seriously!


    Posted on April 16th, 2015 at 1:05 pm Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:


    As an American I thank you from every beating muscle fiber and ventricle of my Red/White/Blue Heart. Why it fills me with love for even the Union Jack this fine Friday morning, for it of course is the Mother Country and our Mother Land of Red, White, Blue.

    God Bless America
    And God Save The Queen.


    Posted on April 17th, 2015 at 1:34 pm Reply | Quote
  • fnn Says:

    “immigration restrictionist”

    Finland is part of the EU , how can they “restrict” immigrants?

    “Russians aren’t “Eurasian” and their IQ level is within European norms.”

    IQ aside, Russia is *different* for some reason:

    Also see Sailer’s recent post, “Russia: Awesomest Country in World!”


    Posted on April 17th, 2015 at 10:10 pm Reply | Quote
  • pseudo-chrysostom Says:

    anyone who calls themselves a reactionary really should be reading revilo oliver (credit to peppermint for turning me on to him).

    an assortment of 20th century personages have sometimes been declaimed as neoreactionaries [i]avant la letre[/i] (such as sanguines john gray or rudolf evans), but this man beats them all too the punch. just take the opening passage of the book ‘americas decline’ for instance;

    CONSERVATISM, when that word was first used in a political sense,
    correctly implied the maintenance of existing governmental and social
    institutions and their preservation from all undesirable innovation
    and substantial change. In Europe and the United States, however,
    the term has now acquired a quite different and linguistically im-
    proper meaning: it implies the restoration of political and social
    institutions that were radically changed and subverted to produce
    the governmental and social institutions that now exist.

    is this not instantly recognizable to anyone who trawls these circles? this is a man who was firing on all cylinders.


    Lesser Bull Reply:

    He even has a retarded Internet moniker before the Internet was even invented. Truly a man before his time.


    SanguineEmpiricist Reply:

    I encourage you to check out Ludovici who wrote a defense guide for the aristocracy, also Evans is still alive and so is John Gray which is why they are important. John Gray is important for the first systematic philosophy incorporating vastly different philosophies he is considered one of the greatest political philosophers of all time for a reason.

    “A Defence of Aristocracy: A Text-Book for Tories” he is anti-carlyle


    Posted on April 18th, 2015 at 2:11 am Reply | Quote
  • pseudo-chrysostom Says:

    @Lesser Bull


    Posted on April 18th, 2015 at 6:23 pm Reply | Quote
  • pseudo-chrysostom Says:


    Posted on April 18th, 2015 at 6:25 pm Reply | Quote
  • Lightning Round – 2015/04/22 | Free Northerner Says:

    […] Demography is destiny. Related: Minnesota’s population replacement. […]

    Posted on April 22nd, 2015 at 5:35 am Reply | Quote

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