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	<title>Comments on: Exterminator</title>
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	<description>Involvements with reality</description>
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	<item>
		<title>By: The Great Filter &#8211; waka waka waka</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-120195</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The Great Filter &#8211; waka waka waka]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2014 01:31:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-120195</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] this is neoreaction&#8217;s own Nick Land. You can read a few of his posts on the topic here and here, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] this is neoreaction&#8217;s own Nick Land. You can read a few of his posts on the topic here and here, and [&#8230;]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Puzzle Privateer (@PuzzlePrivateer)</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91999</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Puzzle Privateer (@PuzzlePrivateer)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2014 16:44:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91999</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The Great Filter does not merely hunt and harm, it exterminates. It is an absolute threat. The technical civilizations which it aborts, or later slays, are not badly wounded, but eradicated, or at least crippled so fundamentally that they are never heard of again. Whatever this utter ruin is, it happens every single time. The mute scream from the stars says that nothing has ever escaped it. Its kill performance is flawless. Tech-Civilization death sentence with probability 1.&quot;

I love this paragraph, so much.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The Great Filter does not merely hunt and harm, it exterminates. It is an absolute threat. The technical civilizations which it aborts, or later slays, are not badly wounded, but eradicated, or at least crippled so fundamentally that they are never heard of again. Whatever this utter ruin is, it happens every single time. The mute scream from the stars says that nothing has ever escaped it. Its kill performance is flawless. Tech-Civilization death sentence with probability 1.&#8221;</p>
<p>I love this paragraph, so much.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Alex</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91785</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2014 07:39:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91785</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;Lament for the Makaris&lt;/i&gt;  (William Dunbar)


I THAT in heill was and glaidness	
Am trublit now with great seikness	
And feblit with infirmitie:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
Our plesance heir is all vain glory,	        
This fals world is but transitory,	
The flesh is brukle, the Feynd is slee:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
The state of man does change and vary,	
Now sound, now sick, now blyth, now sary,	        
Now dansand mirry, now like to die:—	
   &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
No state in Erd heir standis sicker;	
As with the wynd wavis the wicker	
So wavis this world’s vanitie:—	        
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
Unto the Deid gois all Estatis,	
Princis, Prelattis, and Potestatis,	
Baith rich and poor of all degre:—	
  &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	        
 
He takis the Knychtis in to feild	
Enarmit under helm and scheild;	
Victour he is at all mellie:—	
   &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
That strang unmercifull tyrand	        
Takis, on the motheris breast sowkand,	
The babe full of benignitie:—	
   &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
He takis the campioun in the stour,	
The captain closit in the tour,	        
The lady in bour full of bewtie:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
He spairis no lord for his piscence	
Na clerk for his intelligence;	
His awfull straik may no man flee:—	        
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
Art magicianis and astrologis,	
Rethoris, logicianis, and theologis,	
Them helpis no conclusionis slee:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	        
 
In medecyne the most practicianis,	
Leechis, surrigianis and physicianis,	
Themself fra Death may nocht supplee:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
I see that makaris amang the lave	        
Playis here their padyanis, syne gois to grave;	
Spairit is nocht their facultie:—	
   &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
He hes done petuously devour	
The noble Chaucer, of makaris flour,	        
The Monk of Bury, and Gower, all three:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
The gude Sir Hew of Eglintoun,	
Ettrick, Heriot, and Wyntoun,	
He has tane out of this cuntrie:—	        
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
That scorpion fell hes done infeck	
Maister John Clerk, and James Afflek,	
Fra ballat-making and tragedie:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	        
 
Holland and Barbour he has berevit;	
Alas! that he not with us levit	
Sir Mungo Lockart of the Lee:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
Clerk of Tranent eke he hes tane,	        
That made the awnteris of Gawane;	
Sir Gilbert Hay endit hes he:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
He hes Blind Harry and Sandy Traill	
Slain with his schour of mortal hail,	        
Quhilk Patrick Johnstoun might nocht flee:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
He has reft Merseir his endyte	
That did in luve so lively write,	
So short, so quick, of sentence hie:—	        
   &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
He has tane Rowll of Abirdene,	
And gentill Rowll of Corstorphine;	
Two better fallowis did no man see:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;        
 
In Dumfermelyne he has tane Broun	
With Maister Robert Henrysoun;	
Sir John the Ross enbrasit hes he:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
And he hes now tane, last of a,	        
Good gentil Stobo and Quintyne Shaw,	
Of quhom all wichtis hes pitie:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
Good Maister Walter Kennedy	
In poynt of dede lies verily;	        
Great ruth it were that so suld be:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;
 
Sen he hes all my brothers tane,	
He will nocht let me live alane;	
Of force I mon his next prey be:—	        
     &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;	
 
Since for the death remeid is none,	
Best is that we for death dispone	
After our death that live may we:—	
    &lt;i&gt;Timor Mortis conturbat me.&lt;/i&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Lament for the Makaris</i>  (William Dunbar)</p>
<p>I THAT in heill was and glaidness<br />
Am trublit now with great seikness<br />
And feblit with infirmitie:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>Our plesance heir is all vain glory,<br />
This fals world is but transitory,<br />
The flesh is brukle, the Feynd is slee:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>The state of man does change and vary,<br />
Now sound, now sick, now blyth, now sary,<br />
Now dansand mirry, now like to die:—<br />
   <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>No state in Erd heir standis sicker;<br />
As with the wynd wavis the wicker<br />
So wavis this world’s vanitie:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>Unto the Deid gois all Estatis,<br />
Princis, Prelattis, and Potestatis,<br />
Baith rich and poor of all degre:—<br />
  <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	        </p>
<p>He takis the Knychtis in to feild<br />
Enarmit under helm and scheild;<br />
Victour he is at all mellie:—<br />
   <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>That strang unmercifull tyrand<br />
Takis, on the motheris breast sowkand,<br />
The babe full of benignitie:—<br />
   <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>He takis the campioun in the stour,<br />
The captain closit in the tour,<br />
The lady in bour full of bewtie:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>He spairis no lord for his piscence<br />
Na clerk for his intelligence;<br />
His awfull straik may no man flee:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>Art magicianis and astrologis,<br />
Rethoris, logicianis, and theologis,<br />
Them helpis no conclusionis slee:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	        </p>
<p>In medecyne the most practicianis,<br />
Leechis, surrigianis and physicianis,<br />
Themself fra Death may nocht supplee:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>I see that makaris amang the lave<br />
Playis here their padyanis, syne gois to grave;<br />
Spairit is nocht their facultie:—<br />
   <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>He hes done petuously devour<br />
The noble Chaucer, of makaris flour,<br />
The Monk of Bury, and Gower, all three:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>The gude Sir Hew of Eglintoun,<br />
Ettrick, Heriot, and Wyntoun,<br />
He has tane out of this cuntrie:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>That scorpion fell hes done infeck<br />
Maister John Clerk, and James Afflek,<br />
Fra ballat-making and tragedie:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	        </p>
<p>Holland and Barbour he has berevit;<br />
Alas! that he not with us levit<br />
Sir Mungo Lockart of the Lee:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>Clerk of Tranent eke he hes tane,<br />
That made the awnteris of Gawane;<br />
Sir Gilbert Hay endit hes he:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>He hes Blind Harry and Sandy Traill<br />
Slain with his schour of mortal hail,<br />
Quhilk Patrick Johnstoun might nocht flee:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>He has reft Merseir his endyte<br />
That did in luve so lively write,<br />
So short, so quick, of sentence hie:—<br />
   <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>He has tane Rowll of Abirdene,<br />
And gentill Rowll of Corstorphine;<br />
Two better fallowis did no man see:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>        </p>
<p>In Dumfermelyne he has tane Broun<br />
With Maister Robert Henrysoun;<br />
Sir John the Ross enbrasit hes he:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>And he hes now tane, last of a,<br />
Good gentil Stobo and Quintyne Shaw,<br />
Of quhom all wichtis hes pitie:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>Good Maister Walter Kennedy<br />
In poynt of dede lies verily;<br />
Great ruth it were that so suld be:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
<p>Sen he hes all my brothers tane,<br />
He will nocht let me live alane;<br />
Of force I mon his next prey be:—<br />
     <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i>	</p>
<p>Since for the death remeid is none,<br />
Best is that we for death dispone<br />
After our death that live may we:—<br />
    <i>Timor Mortis conturbat me.</i></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Puzzle Privateer (@PuzzlePrivateer)</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91695</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Puzzle Privateer (@PuzzlePrivateer)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2014 03:13:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91695</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Herald of the Great Filters of Gnon speaks:

&quot;Rudimentary creatures of blood and flesh, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.

There is a realm of existence so far beyond your own you cannot even imagine it. I am beyond your comprehension. I am the Herald of Great Filters of Gnon.

Organic life is nothing but a genetic mutation, an accident. Your lives are measured in years and decades. You wither and die. We are eternal, the pinnacle of evolution and existence. Before us, you are nothing. Your extinction is inevitable. We are the end of everything.

Your confidence is born of ignorance. The cycle cannot be broken.

The pattern has repeated itself more times than you can fathom. Organic civilizations rise, evolve, advance, and at the apex of their glory they are extinguished. The legacy of my kind.

Your civilization is based on technology. Our technology. By using it, your civilization develops along the paths we desire. We impose order on the chaos of organic life. You exist because we allow it, and you will end because we demand it.

My kind transcends your very understanding. We are each a nation - independent, free of all weakness. You cannot grasp the nature of our existence.

We have no beginning. We have no end. We are infinite. Millions of years after your civilization has been eradicated and forgotten, we will endure.

We are legion. The time of our return is coming. Our numbers will darken the sky of every world. You cannot escape your doom.

Your words are as empty as your future. I am the Vanguard of your destruction. This exchange is over...&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Herald of the Great Filters of Gnon speaks:</p>
<p>&#8220;Rudimentary creatures of blood and flesh, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.</p>
<p>There is a realm of existence so far beyond your own you cannot even imagine it. I am beyond your comprehension. I am the Herald of Great Filters of Gnon.</p>
<p>Organic life is nothing but a genetic mutation, an accident. Your lives are measured in years and decades. You wither and die. We are eternal, the pinnacle of evolution and existence. Before us, you are nothing. Your extinction is inevitable. We are the end of everything.</p>
<p>Your confidence is born of ignorance. The cycle cannot be broken.</p>
<p>The pattern has repeated itself more times than you can fathom. Organic civilizations rise, evolve, advance, and at the apex of their glory they are extinguished. The legacy of my kind.</p>
<p>Your civilization is based on technology. Our technology. By using it, your civilization develops along the paths we desire. We impose order on the chaos of organic life. You exist because we allow it, and you will end because we demand it.</p>
<p>My kind transcends your very understanding. We are each a nation &#8211; independent, free of all weakness. You cannot grasp the nature of our existence.</p>
<p>We have no beginning. We have no end. We are infinite. Millions of years after your civilization has been eradicated and forgotten, we will endure.</p>
<p>We are legion. The time of our return is coming. Our numbers will darken the sky of every world. You cannot escape your doom.</p>
<p>Your words are as empty as your future. I am the Vanguard of your destruction. This exchange is over&#8230;&#8221;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Teh</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91654</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Teh]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2014 01:18:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91654</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Read vinge&#039;s Zones of thought novels, and in particular a deepness in the sky to see an alternative to the great absence that explains why the stars around us look disturbingly natural.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Read vinge&#8217;s Zones of thought novels, and in particular a deepness in the sky to see an alternative to the great absence that explains why the stars around us look disturbingly natural.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Shalmaneser</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91584</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Shalmaneser]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2014 21:08:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91584</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Resource limitation isn’t a show-stopper because the biggest resource, the sun, will still be there, and because nuclear power is fairly simple to do&quot;

Not without hydrocarbons to bootstrap you to that point. Cornucopian malarkey is best left to  libertarians, Marxists and salesmen.

@IIAT
The trouble is that EVERY nascent civilisation has to succumb to Malthusian traps. If just one evades them, then there are no obvious barriers to reaching Kardashev-2 or higher. Fermi&#039;s question is still pertinent.

This topic elicits, like few others, whistling past the graveyard.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Resource limitation isn’t a show-stopper because the biggest resource, the sun, will still be there, and because nuclear power is fairly simple to do&#8221;</p>
<p>Not without hydrocarbons to bootstrap you to that point. Cornucopian malarkey is best left to  libertarians, Marxists and salesmen.</p>
<p>@IIAT<br />
The trouble is that EVERY nascent civilisation has to succumb to Malthusian traps. If just one evades them, then there are no obvious barriers to reaching Kardashev-2 or higher. Fermi&#8217;s question is still pertinent.</p>
<p>This topic elicits, like few others, whistling past the graveyard.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Lesser Bull</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91574</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lesser Bull]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2014 20:48:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Can&#039;t say that you&#039;re wrong.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can&#8217;t say that you&#8217;re wrong.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Blogospheroid</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91554</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Blogospheroid]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2014 19:48:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91554</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think our knowledge of  all levels - physics, chemistry, biology, praxeology, sociology is nowhere near the level where we should be shitting bricks about the fermi paradox.

Our physics has openly acknowledged broad gaps in our knowledge by postulating dark matter, dark energy, and a bunch of stuff that is filler for - I don&#039;t know. 

Coming to chemistry and biology, we&#039;ve still not demonstrated abiogenesis. We have not created any new base of life other than the twisty strands mother nature already prepared and gave us everywhere. We simply don&#039;t know enough to fill in these gaps. 

Coming to basic sustenance, we&#039;ve don&#039;t know what are the minimum requirements for a self-contained habitat. 

We don&#039;t know the code for intelligence. We don&#039;t know the code for preventing our own bodily degradation.

We don&#039;t know how to balance new knowledge acquisition and sustainability run a society. Our best centres of knowledge acquisition are iq shredders and not sustainable environmentally either. Patriarchy and castes work great in in static societies.  We don&#039;t know their equivalents in a growing knowledge society. 

Lets get all these basics right, repeatedly right and then wonder with our new found knowledge, according to these calculations there is a X% chance that we should have been contacted. Why are we apparently alone in the universe?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think our knowledge of  all levels &#8211; physics, chemistry, biology, praxeology, sociology is nowhere near the level where we should be shitting bricks about the fermi paradox.</p>
<p>Our physics has openly acknowledged broad gaps in our knowledge by postulating dark matter, dark energy, and a bunch of stuff that is filler for &#8211; I don&#8217;t know. </p>
<p>Coming to chemistry and biology, we&#8217;ve still not demonstrated abiogenesis. We have not created any new base of life other than the twisty strands mother nature already prepared and gave us everywhere. We simply don&#8217;t know enough to fill in these gaps. </p>
<p>Coming to basic sustenance, we&#8217;ve don&#8217;t know what are the minimum requirements for a self-contained habitat. </p>
<p>We don&#8217;t know the code for intelligence. We don&#8217;t know the code for preventing our own bodily degradation.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t know how to balance new knowledge acquisition and sustainability run a society. Our best centres of knowledge acquisition are iq shredders and not sustainable environmentally either. Patriarchy and castes work great in in static societies.  We don&#8217;t know their equivalents in a growing knowledge society. </p>
<p>Lets get all these basics right, repeatedly right and then wonder with our new found knowledge, according to these calculations there is a X% chance that we should have been contacted. Why are we apparently alone in the universe?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Blogospheroid</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91549</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Blogospheroid]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2014 19:30:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91549</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, MACHOs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_compact_halo_object) are the second plausible explanation of dark matter, so there is meat in that theory.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, MACHOs (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_compact_halo_object" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_compact_halo_object</a>) are the second plausible explanation of dark matter, so there is meat in that theory.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: scientism</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/exterminator/#comment-91497</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[scientism]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2014 16:26:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=3268#comment-91497</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The time-scales on which Gnon might favour interstellar propagation are massive. Expanding into the solar system is a near-term concern, but the only impetus to expand to another star system is the long-term evolution of the Sun or the possibility of exhausting its resources. Again, scenarios where a civilisation might exhaust the resources of an entire star system tend to assume highly speculative modes of existence, such as turning the star system into a giant computer for uploaded super-intelligences, etc. Any time you engage in speculation and it leads to an extreme conclusion, the most likely source of the extreme conclusion is the speculation.

Extrapolating from current modes of existence leads to the mundane conclusion that we shouldn&#039;t expect to detect other civilisations easily. Trapped in their meat bodies and constrained by the laws of physics, they&#039;d take a long time to exploit all the resources in their own system and probably wouldn&#039;t engage in much interstellar travel, if any. They could last for millions of years this way, if they solve the problems we&#039;re now facing. Such civilisations would probably only expand outwards, very slowly, on multimillion year time-scales and still wouldn&#039;t be detectable unless they&#039;re explicitly trying to communicate with us.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The time-scales on which Gnon might favour interstellar propagation are massive. Expanding into the solar system is a near-term concern, but the only impetus to expand to another star system is the long-term evolution of the Sun or the possibility of exhausting its resources. Again, scenarios where a civilisation might exhaust the resources of an entire star system tend to assume highly speculative modes of existence, such as turning the star system into a giant computer for uploaded super-intelligences, etc. Any time you engage in speculation and it leads to an extreme conclusion, the most likely source of the extreme conclusion is the speculation.</p>
<p>Extrapolating from current modes of existence leads to the mundane conclusion that we shouldn&#8217;t expect to detect other civilisations easily. Trapped in their meat bodies and constrained by the laws of physics, they&#8217;d take a long time to exploit all the resources in their own system and probably wouldn&#8217;t engage in much interstellar travel, if any. They could last for millions of years this way, if they solve the problems we&#8217;re now facing. Such civilisations would probably only expand outwards, very slowly, on multimillion year time-scales and still wouldn&#8217;t be detectable unless they&#8217;re explicitly trying to communicate with us.</p>
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