Hugo de Garis argues (consistently) that controversy over permitted machine intelligence development will inevitably swamp all other political conflicts. (Here‘s a video discussion on the thesis.) Given the epic quality of the scenario, and its basic plausibility, it has remained strangely marginalized up to this point. The component pieces seem to be falling into place. The true element of genius in this futurist construction is preemption. The more one digs into that, the most twistedly dynamic it looks.
Among the many thought-provoking elements:
(1) Slow take-off is especially ominous for the de Garis model (in stark contrast to FAI arguments). The slower the process, the more time for ideological consolidation, incremental escalation, and preparation for violent confrontation.
(2) AI doesn’t even have to be possible for this scenario to unfold (it only has to be credible as a threat).
(3) De Garis’ ‘Cosmist-Terran’ division chops up familiar political spectra at strange angles. (Both NRx and the Ultra-Left contain the full C-T spectrum internally.)
(4) Terrans have to strike first, or lose. That asymmetry shapes everything.
(5) Impending Gigadeath War surely deserves a place on any filled-out horrorism list.
De Garis’ site.
(Some topic preemption at Outside in here.)