Glide Path

Fernandez takes a clear-eyed look at where things are actually heading right now:

Conventional wisdom has had a pretty bad run these last 15 years. For that reason there is little purpose to trusting it further. Instead it might be better to predict a future based on observable trends rather than scenarios that politicians [promote?]. If those trends convey any information one would expect to see in 2025:

1. The self-destruction of the Muslim Middle East;
2. The rise of ethnic and national politics in Europe;
3. The widespread resurgence of religion and cultural identity as a consequence of (2);
4. Mass expulsions or segregation in large parts of the world to deconflict incompatible communities
5. Everyone packing personal weapons like the Wild West
6. The collapse of multi-ethnic countries into simplified pacts based around of national defense, with most social law generated by local communities and affinity groups;
7. One or more large regional wars with casualties in the tens of millions.
8. Several, possibly many WMD attacks on major cities involving radiological weapons, low yield nukes or biological agents.
8. The collapse of any realistic expectation of Peace on Earth, with the remaining hope of mankind vested in the new space frontier.

Such a world would be rough, dangerous and in many places, miserable. Perhaps it will not even be as good as that; for the list above omits the occurrence of an event equivalent to World War 3, in which case we can describe the future with a single word: ruin. But it is the world we are building, absent any change of course. The oddest circumstance is that politicians still pretend without the slightest basis, that if we stay their perverse course we’ll go right through the ruin and out the other side and find the dream we glimpsed as we crossed into the 21st century. […] It’s a condition they call Hope, though there’s another phrase for it: whistling past the graveyard.

October 15, 2015admin 19 Comments »

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19 Responses to this entry

  • Glide Path | Neoreactive Says:

    […] By admin […]

    Posted on October 15th, 2015 at 1:00 pm Reply | Quote
  • Dark Psy-Ops Says:

    Tossing up whether to cry myself to sleep or start digging a bunker…


    Puzzle Privateer (@PuzzlePrivateer) Reply:

    Be optimistic man! There’s time for both! If your’e really ambitious you can dig that bunker while crying. 😉


    Posted on October 15th, 2015 at 1:33 pm Reply | Quote
  • Xoth Says:

    It sort of derailed at point 5.

    I’d say conventional war with actual armies rolling about seem less and less relevant as time goes on. Migrant population flows and warlords is where it’s at.

    If the current suicidal policy of Merkel et al continues, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if one or several EU countries fall apart under the pressure either. For instance Sweden or Germany. Fernandez’ point 6 would be the Lebanon scenario, where the country factions eventually become exhausted and observe a cease fire; another realistic option is, I’m afraid, renewed nationalism and expulsion of the wogs. What will be remembered from this era is a collection of several exciting action movies depicting how the American Army and Israeli evacuate from the chaos.


    ivvenalis Reply:

    I think “tens of millions” is probably an exaggeration. It’s possible you might be able to get that number with accounting tricks based on decreases in life expectancy etc.

    I think we will see more Lebanons. I think they will be qualitatively different, for several reasons:
    1. The proliferation of precision weapons. We’re at, or very very near, the point where off-the-shelf electronics can be used to manufacture “artisanal” PGMs in small, even personal, workshops.
    2. One thing that the US’s GWOT operations have done is revolutionize intelligence collection and targeting. The rapid find-hit-exploit-repeat tactics developed and used by USSOCOM to eviscerate decentralized urban guerrilla cells will probably rear their head. I think it reasonably likely that their use against current states by “militia” units will be the mechanism of government loss of control if general lawlessness driven by mass migration doesn’t do it first.
    3. Cyber/electronic warfare will become standard. This isn’t even a prediction. I’m personally shocked at the speed with which this has gone from a bunch of weirdos screwing around to explicit, standardized military doctrine.
    4. The developed world will become increasingly aware of and cynical towards propaganda techniques, driving a sort of arms race. God knows what will happen here. I expect mass desensitization to violence, but I don’t know if it will precede or succeed actual mass violence in the First World. I’m leaning towards precede, because it could be a knock-on effect of attempts to cover up crimes by migrants.
    5. I don’t think the use of WMDs is likely. They’re too cumbersome and dangerous to their users.


    Xoth Reply:

    The revolution will be uploaded to youtube, or possibly to world star hiphop.

    If we’re seeing a gradual bottom-up decay, like Bavaria breaking off after a long visit to the beer hall, then intelligence operations will start at the local welfare offices to see where the enemy lives and the telco databases of mobiles to identify targets dynamically. Perhaps there will be an exciting struggle between central authorities and Bavaria to control the mobile network and lock out the opposition.

    After a while, that source of intelligence won’t make sense anymore and one has to move on to other possibilities. Take the opportunity to mass text your enemies before it’s gone.


    Kgaard Reply:

    Ivvernalis … Seems to me your prediction of “mass violence in the first world” in point 4 is at odds with the tactics you lay out in point 2. If the powers that be are getting better at surgical strikes to eliminate in-country threats, wouldn’t that tend to have a violence-reducing effect?

    I am just not sure Fernandez’ whole piece hangs together. It does not square with observable trends in the US in particular. Most obviously, constantly declining crime rates even as the US becomes more multi-racial. I live at ground zero for New World Order immigration/dumping/race mixing and crime here is absolute zero. Quite amazing actually.


    ivvenalis Reply:

    I sound overconfident about the probability of violence because I think it’s more interesting to think how that would play out as a given than to think about exactly how it might happen. For me, I mean, not in general.

    Re: American multiculturalism, I think it’s context dependent. Some types of multiculturalism are in fact feasible/tolerable, others are not. Uncontrolled immigration of Muslims & Sub-Saharan Africans is fucking retarded and a recipe for disaster. Fortunately the US isn’t experiencing that. I was mostly thinking of Europe, to be honest. I think the “lebanons” could occur in France, Sweden, UK, and Germany, in about that order, and with less than 100% probability, probably no more than 50% for each one. I fully acknowledge that the indigenous populations of those countries may be so…cucked, I guess…that they’ll become a minority by the next century and that will be that.

    By “mass violence” I don’t mean Mongol-scale slaughter, sorry. Not even Serbia-scale. There will be a relative increase that will seem shocking even though it’s not high by historical standards.

    I think the way #2 might play out is that veterans, possibly as members of official local police forces, use tactics they learned overseas against domestic “activists” like the ones that organized the Ferguson riots, then turn them against the state when they realize whose side that state is on. Killing doesn’t even need to happen initially, just exposure. Existing states might have an insurmountable advantage here, but I don’t think it’s a given. I don’t want to go into details.

    ivvenalis Reply:

    Regarding the overall disjointedness, I think Fernandez and I have the same problem: a fascination with how a first-world civil war would theoretically play out, purely as an intellectual exercise. I guess I’m just not as interested in the exact details of how to get there from here, in part probably because I don’t actually want to “get there”.

    Kgaard Reply:


    Yes I agree … the key is the intellectual exercise. Mapping out the possibilities so one is prepared for various outcomes. Predicting the precise evolution of events is less important than having mentally mapped out three or four possible, uh, glide paths …

    Kgaard Reply:

    That was meant for Ivvernalis.

    Posted on October 15th, 2015 at 2:11 pm Reply | Quote
  • Jefferson Says:

    The odds of wmd usage in the next 15 years strike me as very low. There just don’t seem many targets that make sense. The salafis are more concerned with conquest and the Shia are more concerned with not being overrun, flayed, and raped to death. State actors are unlikely to provoke the sort of response they’d get hit with. I also think ethnic politics in Europe are a non-starter. Europe might not know it, but it is already dead and ask the fight went out of them last century. East Asia turning violent also seems unlikely. Parents don’t send their only son off to war, and half the countries there don’t have sons to send (is Japan going to send a robot army to fend off prole Chinese narcissists?).


    Lucian of Samosata Reply:

    If the end of the world makes Gundam Wing real I am all for it.


    A.B Prosper Reply:

    Not so much. As of this year we have stabbings and car bombings directed against the ruling class in Germany. and note, not the immigrants, directly to what they perceive to be the source of the rot.

    Norway also had Brevik and no gun laws won’t save them. They haven’t wanted or needed much them yet but guns and ammo are far more common in Europe than people think and of course other weapons are out there,

    Saxons are slow to hate but to paraphrase C.S. Lewis “They hate very well.”


    Posted on October 15th, 2015 at 6:09 pm Reply | Quote
  • spandrell Says:

    Between points 2) and 3), the EU acquires Chinese internet censorship technology, shuts down all white speech, and Project Islamic Brazil goes on. Forever.


    A.B Prosper Reply:

    Europe isn’t as alienated as the US is, heavy handed censorship would be immediately noticed and even more the face to face communications would take place.

    It also won’t last forever since active fighting has already broken out being limited these days to property attacks and a few personal attacks it might just escalate. Germans zero to jack boots in under a minute

    You absolutely could try and suppress this Stazi style but its already past the point where this would be easy and unlike in the DDR/USSR neither the military nor the intelligence services are high supportive of the regime. They want a paycheck and the German economy being moribund as it is and stupider won’t provide them with it.


    michael Reply:

    dude they imprison people for thought crimes in europe this blog would have us all in in prison


    SVErshov Reply:

    europe do what US masters say, and those masters well known for giving real stupid advices.


    Posted on October 15th, 2015 at 6:31 pm Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    according to old Forrester’s calculations, which been later removed from his book World Dynamics, once it will go full scale 60% of world population will be gone in one year. go 2 Africa


    Posted on October 16th, 2015 at 9:23 am Reply | Quote

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