There’s a neat French 1789 -1870 ‘seculum’ — not obvious how to extend it though, and the Franco-Prussian War is hard to interpret as an endogenous event. So much Chinese history has been delivered from without that the same problem is close to overwhelming in that case, too.

Agree with LB (above) that the socio-geographical unit of analysis is historically sensitive (to globalization in particular).

The whole point of US actions in the middle east from a deep state real politic perspective is to ferment instability, in that it has been extremely successful. Pulling out of Iraq and we have open war between Sunni and Shiite, it’s everything the deep state could want. I do think at the start of the war there was a mindset that was idealistic rather than real politic that was projected by Bush and down the chain of command. However Bush was never the man at the top and his desire to take down Saddam was exploited by his handlers, idealism was part of how Iraq was sold (to the men fighting), the reality was obviously different.

I see Ukraine similarly, sure the CIA wanted to move Ukraine closer to the west and they got careless about making it too obvious. But as a consolation prize they got to spark a civil war with Russian troops involved, and they didn’t even have to throw Europe’s economy under the bus to do it, something I’m sure they’re quite proud of. Of course in the longer term game there will be consequences but when you consider their personal job security that’s a feature, not a bug.

I’m personally of the opinion that the CIA never ceased having contacts in al-qaeda after they fought off the Russians. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if after the first attempt on the WTC with the inept basement bomb, a member the deep state then asked a group of men for ideas on how al-qaeda could succeed in taking down the WTC, a meeting kept at the highest level of secrecy for the most justified of security reasons and then leaked what they came up with (I can guarantee that they had this meeting, meetings like this are the bread and butter of counter intelligence, it’s merely a question if it was one of them who first got the idea to use the jets which a lone CIA agent could have then leaked the idea (feeding information after all is the easiest thing to do, far easier than getting information) while the bureaucracy failed to implement preventative measures, or if the idea came from the same group of heads that thought the basement bomb was a good idea).

We have that now, you are looking at the painful process of government being privatized and the final vestiges of democracy and the great unwashed having any say in their fate being washed away.

Today is what the future looks like.

Oh it’s Finance and Defense [70% of contracting] and Social Services [including prison].

That’s Today and that’s your post Cathedral future, it’s now.

Islam is a different matter but most of it’s business it needs to settle is with itself and the casualties, locales reflect this…they may need a 30 Years war to convince themselves Holy Wars aren’t such a great idea. If they use nukes they’ll use them on each other. The nice thing to do [we aren’t] would be to let them work it out. The realistic policy is to meddle enough to keep their considerable dysfunctions confined to their world and it’s not very hard. Just as the 30 Years war was prolonged and aggravated by the surrounding powers so shall Islam’s reckoning, most of which is due to the collapse of the Sunni Caliphate. They haven’t yet you see come to terms with no Caliph, however disappointing it was in reality.

The appetite for combat and valor is mercifully restricted in the West at least to the Valorous. This is the normal course of History and usually the proper course.

Those are the known unknowns. Clearly that is all going to play a role in winter, but my intuition tells me it will be something more than the US going down the tubes Argentina-style.

Given recent events in the Middle East, it is increasingly clear that we are now living in the shadow of Richard Fernandez’s Three Conjectures. The article might be 11 years old, but it even more relevant today: http://bit.ly/1lDRSR3

Conjecture 1: Terrorism has lowered the nuclear threshold. With Islamic terrorists, it is a question of capability, not intent. If terrorists get a nuke, they will use it.

Conjecture 2: Attaining WMDs will destroy Islam. There is no central authority to negotiate with, and MAD doesn’t work with religious fanatics. This creates and uncontrollable acceleration of escalation. When the nukes start going off in American cities, the only way to *stop* it from happening again will be a full-scale nuclear annihilation of the entire Middle East. It might take a few cities, but eventually….

Conjecture 3: The War on Terror is the “golden hour” the final chance to prevent this from unfolding. 11 years on, the US gave the War on Terror a chance, and it has proven an abysmal failure.

If Strauss and Howe are calling for total war, this is what total war could look like in the Fourth Turning. If DC is the first city knocked off, that sets the stage for secession, fragmentation, and extra-constitutional measures to maintain order.

Given this sort of environment, leftism doesn’t cut it anymore. People would be looking for some other sort of value system to justify and steel themselves for what needs/needed to be done. If only there was an emerging value system out there that is fully capable with grappling with hard truths….

Either way, with the Gas conflict ongoing, I can see some serious conflict coming which will catch the public by surprise. The Russia and China attempt at US dollar withdrawal signifies they want to be in a position to be able to operate freely in a conflict situation. Central Eurasia is where it is at now. It’s like a giant chessboard with the goal being to get a pipeline to the EU.

red dots on this map of of primary importance – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-18/petro-sectarian-map-middle-east

Azerbaijan is blocked by Iran and armenia (Russia with troops in Karabakh)
Iran now blocked by Sunnistan (northern Iraq).

I reckon we may see some action in northern Iran with regard Kurdish independence. Increased support for Assad by Russia

I can see this all spinning out of control easily. Especially given the double game they have to play with the massive Muslim populations they have imported to Europe.