Quote note (#181)

Hsu waxes optimistic about the coming ecology of explosive intelligence:

… perhaps we will experience a positive feedback loop: Better human minds invent better machine learning methods, which in turn accelerate our ability to improve human DNA and create even better minds. In my own work, I use methods from machine learning (so-called compressed sensing, or convex optimization in high dimensional geometry) to extract predictive models from genomic data. Thanks to recent advances, we can predict a phase transition in the behavior of these learning algorithms, representing a sudden increase in their effectiveness. We expect this transition to happen within about a decade, when we reach a critical threshold of about 1 million human genomes worth of data. Several entities, including the U.S. government’s Precision Medicine Initiative and the private company Human Longevity Inc. (founded by Craig Venter), are pursuing plans to genotype 1 million individuals or more.

The feedback loop between algorithms and genomes will result in a rich and complex world, with myriad types of intelligences at play: the ordinary human (rapidly losing the ability to comprehend what is going on around them); the enhanced human (the driver of change over the next 100 years, but perhaps eventually surpassed); and all around them vast machine intellects, some alien (evolved completely in silico) and some strangely familiar (hybrids). Rather than the standard science-fiction scenario of relatively unchanged, familiar humans interacting with ever-improving computer minds, we will experience a future with a diversity of both human and machine intelligences. For the first time, sentient beings of many different types will interact collaboratively to create ever greater advances, both through standard forms of communication and through new technologies allowing brain interfaces. We may even see human minds uploaded into cyberspace, with further hybridization to follow in the purely virtual realm. These uploaded minds could combine with artificial algorithms and structures to produce an unknowable but humanlike consciousness. Researchers have recently linked mouse and monkey brains together, allowing the animals to collaborate — via an electronic connection — to solve problems. This is just the beginning of “shared thought.”

September 5, 2015admin 23 Comments »


23 Responses to this entry

  • Aeroguy Says:

    It is my hope, but given how fear inhibits the genetic side of enhancement it will undermine this chance. Regardless of if humans get swept up in the process, hybrids seem to be the trajectory. An intelligence race with many participants would work well.

    I also found that mutational load can be talked about and used to scare people towards genetic selection/engineering without violating PC speech.


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 5:04 pm Reply | Quote
  • Quote note (#181) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 5:23 pm Reply | Quote
  • Exfernal Says:

    A tad naive. Skyrocketing intelligence does not remove conflicts of interest. It might as well exacerbate them.


    SVErshov Reply:

    nothing have such political power as new ideas


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 5:40 pm Reply | Quote
  • Ripper Says:

    New high IQ is another source of diversity, therefore risky.


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 6:09 pm Reply | Quote
  • S.C. Hickman Says:

    He mentions quantum mechanics, but never mentions quantum computers in regards to AI research.

    We know of three initiatives using the qubit D-Wave 2 computers:

    Nasa: http://www.nas.nasa.gov/quantum/

    Google: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/514846/google-and-nasa-launch-quantum-computing-ai-lab/

    And the new quantum boost (see Nature) http://www.nature.com/news/quantum-boost-for-artificial-intelligence-1.13453

    I can see them ultimately combining a network of quantum computers much like a Cloud Farm that would allow a networkcentric feedback among several systems. One of the fallacies that many of the those who think about intelligence is that they equate it with “human” intelligence. Why should AI be bound by our anthropomorphic notions of intelligence. Machinic intelligence to me will be of another order and may not need to work like our brain. And, in fact, limiting it to reproducing human intelligence may in itself be a fallacy and false solution to the actual future of AI.


    existoon Reply:

    Life has been doing quantum computing for a very long time, majority of molecules involved seem to be selected for quantum effects. Human intelligence is really existing quantum alien intelligence 🙂



    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 6:58 pm Reply | Quote
  • E. Antony Gray (@RiverC) Says:

    Dreams of a future age – remember them.


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 8:10 pm Reply | Quote
  • peter connor Says:

    I am skeptical as usual…..the costs and risks of gene engineering will be great, and it will be confined by economics to the alpha class, which is very risk averse. Meanwhile, several billion rather unintelligent people will be trying, so far successfully, to break into the building and help themselves to whatever is lying around….


    OLF Reply:

    And, considering the population and IQ projections for the future, it is doubtful that there will be anyone doing anyting remotely hi-tech in a few hundred years. I mean if Northern America goes full Brazil, Europe full Somalia and East Asia dies off from sub-replacement fertility who is going to even care about such things?


    Hanfeizi Reply:

    East Asia isn’t going to die off. Their populations are too high; overcrowding is too great. Low birth rates can reverse themselves- see Russia for an example of a birth rate that has increased rapidly over the past few decades.

    And if going full Brazil means no interest in anything remotely high tech, EMBRAER might like a word with you. There will still be those who care- if not as many as before.


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 9:32 pm Reply | Quote
  • michael Says:

    Hate to be a wet blanket ,but isn’t the problem that societies cant function with citizens of vastly different abilities?


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    No, that’s only because capitalism rewards selfishness and greed, but in a high-functioning NRx community those with high ability levels would not see themselves as outsiders and instead would work for the betterment of their less able brothers and sisters. It’s like how that great reactionary said: “from each according to their ability, to each according to whatever they think they’re entitled to.’

    More seriously, if a society made up of citizens with equally poor ability will function well due to the fact no one feels jealous or inferior, than progressive fascism is surely the way to go. ‘We must work to close the education gaps, comrades!’


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    Admin’s sending me mind-rays telling me that was trollish. FWIW I am highly appreciative of your exchanges with Kwisatz on the JQ. It’s good to see a bit of sanity and nuance injected into the conversation. But, seeing as we all do favor clear simplicity above complex opacity, I’ll weigh in with this: MPC and Stormfront are thugs.


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    If I’m getting this right, you both ended up agreeing that the best thing would be Jewish assimilation into majority white American Christendom through interbreeding and integral conversion. Now, if we take this dialectical synthesis and apply it to the proper functioning of Stephen Hsu’s ecological singularitarianism the result may not be totally pessimistic, for it does not lack qualification, but the political consequences are intense. It’s a question of trade, and the ability to do so. If a zealot South African progressive told you the only possibility of assimilation was wholesale genetic diffusion into the black tribal ‘majority’ and a subsequent conversion to local practices of shamanic spiritual healing (or whatever) you’d be less than enthusiastic I think. There’s an issue of scaling here.

    Cyber-mench may never reach a critical threshold beyond American Christendom that renders them incapable of assimilation due both to novel reproductive trajectory and internal inclination, but it’s to hard to imagine a purely silicon intelligence partaking in Catholic transubstantiation (without some major tweaks at least).

    Lucian of Samosata Reply:

    Somewhere somebody is calling Donald Trump a thug right now.

    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    You’re right, it doesn’t get anywhere. Trump is no thug, but just imagine Marc Andreson’s delight when Trump’s left holding the reins when the crash comes.

    Anyway, calling people thugs is not welcoming of civil debate, so I retract my ad hominem. It you wished to present some arguments in favor of MPC/Stormfront reclassification it might help me re-align my perspective…?

    I’d say this: they are an important component to any contemporary Western diagonal-triangular ideological strategy.

    Lucian of Samosata Reply:

    I won’t advocate any specific political merits of the Nazis, but I will say that their fashion sense was second to none. The enormous commercial success of Hugo Boss alone demonstrates that Nazism and NRx are perfectly compatible.

    michael Reply:

    I have little knowlede of stormfront prefering http://www.niggermania.com/ myself, but sure they are thugs. I think they are wrong to want to turn Jews into soap But I think they in a thuggish way are right that the european diaspora has the same rights to homelands as anyone regardless of a propositional framework.and that homelands are important for a variety of reasons. And that because of those things war must be waged if need be to enforce those rights Thats not to say I necessarily agree with them for the same reasons.
    And i agree the uniforms were cool.in fact quite a lot of nazism is pretty cool.though its hard to get a feel for the reality from news reels.-I know I know all that socialism and genocide but still.

    Yes I guess the Delphi of Dune and I did agree complete assimilation is best, it being a special case of a tiny fraction with a long history and astounding contributions and physically indistinguishable, but that through accidents of history neither side can get past the otherness which becomes a social bug due to very high IQ giving 1/2% a percent 33-50% control.
    More importantly I think we established their is a JQ independent of the lads at stormfront, and that it has a larger implication, If even these ideal immigrants cant smoothly assimilate after 1000 years what hope is there for less optimal candidates.Religion is a far less social glue/control mech than even a vague ethnic nationalism. NRX despite its fraught recent history would be better off with a meme that has no theological pentimento.
    For me at least I see the JQ as an general elite questions well. I dont pretend to have a solution but I cant help noticing elites keep fucking things up while proles keep attempting reaction.I think the link about the mongol Chinese conquerors makes the point. elites are fags always will be. Im going to re read MM.
    No I wouldnt subsume myself back into the african mother,Im not even sure if I were Kwiz I wouldnt head to Israel and show those goyim. [isnt it strange east asia and israel havnt kicked our ass yet maybe it takes more than IQ huh?]
    Cyber mench this whole gene editing going to be a fucking mess I hope we can survive. Personally I think one better be an early adapter.


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 11:43 pm Reply | Quote
  • admin Says:

    It’s no doubt over-hasty to take any indication of optimism as prima facie cognitive error — but that’s certainly my inclination.


    Posted on September 5th, 2015 at 11:57 pm Reply | Quote
  • bob sykes Says:

    Prof Hsu, Future Pundit and al fin are hopeless pollyannas. Hopelessly cocooned and unaware. Stuck in 1950’s science fiction magazines.

    For 30 years or more, working class earnings have declined, and now are substantially less than they were a generation ago. Middle class earnings and even median income have also declined over that period. This suggests that real per caput GDP has been declining. One of the reasons that Obama does not intervene in Syria is that our military is so debilitated that he can’t. Most of our carriers are all but mothballed, and the Army is poised to fall to the levels of the 1920’s and 1930’s. And yet, we run huge, Greek-style budget deficits each year. One would like to know what America’s economy really is, and where it’s going. Detroit, Newark, Stockton … doesn’t look promising.

    It has been argued that there have been no new technological breakthroughs since the 1960’s, and that we merely keep finding new uses for those old inventions. For example, Richard Feynman conceived of quantum computers in 1982, but no one has built one. And we have lost the capability to put men into low Earth orbit, or for that matter to launch satellites without Russian engines.

    There is a theory that there is an optimum high IQ of about 130. People with higher IQ’s supposedly cannot communicate readily with people of normal intelligence, so the high IQ obermenschen are sidelined and out of the hierarchy. A person with an IQ of 1,000 would be kept in a cage.


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    Oh no! It seems you’ve hit the wrong date on your Sonic Escalation E-Flux Inhibitor and ended up way past your designated time preference! Don’t worry, I’ve done that before many times, all you need to do is hop back in your Timescanner, punch in the digits of the last discrete location in which you felt comfortable, and not totally out of your depth, and you’ll get back to cheering the 1980’s World Series in no time. Believe me, the only other alternative is to get caught in the endlessly simulated death of America, which is surely a fate worse than death.


    Posted on September 6th, 2015 at 1:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    chips for bitcoin mining were disigned by miners itslef, some of whom was a students or dropouts. in two years it went from 110nm to 11nm current. best chip on offer for $4700 by Intel is Xeon E5-2699 v3 @ 2.30GHz and still based on 22nm technology and you can boil coffee on top of it. capitalism have to go to hell.


    Posted on September 6th, 2015 at 2:47 pm Reply | Quote

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