Quote note (#206)

Caplan enters the bargaining stage:

… demographic ills can clearly be remedied with more immigration! Non-white immigration is messing up America? Then let in enough white immigrants to keep the white share constant. Non-Christian immigration is destroying our religious heritage? Then let in enough Christians to keep the Christian share constant. Non-Anglophones are turning English into a minority language? Then let in enough English-speakers to balance them out. Low-IQ immigration is making us dumb? Then let in enough high-IQ immigrants to keep up smart.

This is certainly a viable solution given current levels of immigration. The world has hundreds of millions of whites, Christians, English-speakers, and IQs>100. At least tens of millions of each group would love to permanently move to the U.S. Why haven’t they? Because it’s illegal, of course. If the U.S. selectively opened its borders to these groups, it could reverse decades of demographic change in a matter of years. In fact, the U.S. could admit vastly more Third World immigrants without changing overall demographics a bit – as long as it concurrently welcomed First World immigrants to balance them.

Take the machinery necessary to do that, and it would be possible — in fact, almost irresistible — to do something positive with it. (Or does demographic engineering only go in one direction?)

December 15, 2015admin 43 Comments »
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43 Responses to this entry

  • Mark Citadel Says:

    Such an analysis might in theory work for America, but its not so easy in other places. Japan for example, could not maintain itself by importing huge numbers of smart Chinese men (this is not such a good idea for obvious reasons).

    The root demographic problems really have to be addressed and those are the catastrophically low birth rates of whites, the catastrophically bad excuse for ‘education’ that most people enjoy, and the catastrophically destructive power of secularism on religious authority. America could, with incentives, import the entire population of Australia but there are questions of what this would do to the character of the white American, where that would leave Australia, and who would be imported once this well had run dry.


    JL Reply:

    Why would Australians want to move? Our minimum wage is like, $20 an hour. More or less free universal medicare, next to no gun crime. Amazing weather most of the year, paradisical beaches, superb live music culture, good quality ecstasy, a capable bureacracy. There are only three reasons Aussies go to America – LA (for films), SF (for tech), or NY (for finance or fashion). Other than the natural beauty of the flyover states, the social life of middle America is a shithole we’d rather avoid. Even New Zealand would be preferable.


    Rasputin Reply:

    “Why would Australians want to move?”



    JL Reply:

    You’re right. Don’t forget the snakes. And sharks. And skin cancer.

    But the spiders come into your house, and are impossible to avoid.

    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 2:52 pm Reply | Quote
  • Yvjrolu Says:

    “(Or does demographic engineering only go in one direction?)”

    Rhetorical question? I’m pretty sure that, for now, it does only go in one direction. I guess there’s a chance that could change eventually though.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 3:28 pm Reply | Quote
  • Artxell Knaphni Says:

    You’re forgetting that the USA is an exercise in stupidity, that is constrained to utilise “higher IQs” only in the service of this exercise: Neoreaction being a typical example.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 3:46 pm Reply | Quote
  • Thales Says:

    Yanking the remaining Anglo-Saxons from the British Isles as the homeland falls to the Saracen. Looking out from the helicopter, the last blue-eyed child watches in despair as the Palace of Westminster implodes. Cue Amazing Grace on the bagpipes.


    Xoth Reply:

    … with a backbeat.


    spandrell Reply:

    Payback for the Crimean War.


    Contemplationist Reply:



    Erebus Reply:

    Nobody should “yank” the English out of England. Shakespeare once noted that even cowards fight when they can fly no further. One can only hope that the men of England first realize that they are still men — and then, when their backs are pressed against the wall, realize that men can fight, and that the defense and purification of their land will call for rivers of blood.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 3:50 pm Reply | Quote
  • pyrrhus Says:

    How about 0 undesirables for every million desirables? But Caplan says it’s racist anyway, LOL!


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 4:19 pm Reply | Quote
  • Orthodox Says:

    The policy is not the issue, the bigger story is “open borders Caplan” proposed it.


    Orthodox Reply:

    Also, Caplan has just lowered his price from 700 yuan to 690 yuan on a product you know can be had for 200 yuan or less. You cannot even be near a final price until you’ve walked away at least once.


    admin Reply:

    I’m not pretending to great bargaining skills. No one else was hanging around the junk stall at the time.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 4:22 pm Reply | Quote
  • Xoth Says:

    It’s superfluous to note that only the border-opening end of the bargain will be upheld.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 4:27 pm Reply | Quote
  • spandrell Says:

    Who is “we”? The immigrants that the people who actually get to run the immigration system want are those more likely to vote to leftist party.


    admin Reply:

    ‘We’ not being them would be a start. But, of course, I agree it’s complicated. The tech-comms could probably strike some kind of deal with Caplan for a Silicon Valley-type (‘Singaporean’) point system, but I’m fully aware how unpopular that would be among other constituencies, and not only straightforwardly leftist ones. Still, it’s interesting to see awkward conversations suddenly getting started.


    Grotesque Body Reply:

    Anything that disdains meritocracy is wrong.


    Warg Franklin Reply:

    There’s more to merit than individual traits. Humans can’t be neatly separated and ranked on an individual basis. “Cultural fit” is a thing, among other things.

    Harold Reply:

    WNs are stupid and wrong because they have a greater preference for genetic continuity after their deaths over order and technological progress after their deaths. Smart people know the former is illogical and the latter is logical.

    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 4:28 pm Reply | Quote
  • frank Says:

    Caplan needs to read some Doolittle, that is if his racist-o-meter can handle it. IQ is not the only problem with immigration because it’s not the only mental trait that’s subject to evolutionary pressures. Would America give up its classical liberal character so eagerly if its demographic character erred much more on the side of Anglos–instead of Saxons, Italians, Irish, French and other less liberal leaning ethnicities? Doolittle is right when he says that culture is the sexual strategy of a group. When you mix two sexual strategies, at least one of them disappears–and probably both.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 4:34 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alrenous Says:

    Umm…where are the negentropic immigrants supposed to come from? Does Caplan approximate the non-American world as having infinite population?


    La Fayette Reply:

    Hey, there’s a thing called E.Europe. And Russia. And Russians in Central Asia (a small minority now, but still something). Christians in the M.East. Lots of people who worked | fought for USA in Iraq and Afghanistan (who _have to leave their homelands now).


    Alrenous Reply:

    Now add up their populations.
    Remember, taking in a non-Christian English speaker means the rest have to be even more Christian than the US to balance it out.


    La Fayette Reply:

    Tens of millions of possible migrants.

    nd I don’t understand, what does “Christian” means to you? Catholics, Uniates and Orthodox don’t count?
    I don’t think it’s 1618 round there.


    A.B Prosper Reply:

    Frankly Caplan is just in the 3rd Kübler-Ross grief stage, bargaining

    Its not going to work no matter what and the the only solutions if after the 4th stage depression you move onto the final stage acceptance that either the US ends as a functioning 1st world Western country or a way is found to remove a lot of non Whites and heavily limit Asians as well.

    As for his bargain, Eastern Europeans are low trust people raised in Communist societies, hardly the same asset class as say German engineers.

    Also the TFR of Eastern Europe is Japan level or a bit higher. They have only a small population surplus and its declining. The only reason they have any is that Eastern Europe hasn’t yet developed as much as it can.

    If we got every single Polish worker it would be about two million, maybe 1/5 of the purported number of illegals and 1/25 of all recent immigrants.

    That’s assuming every single one would speak English want to be here and they wouldn’t.

    In theory if we could Hoover up every White emigrant on Earth , train them in English when needed we could match Mexican immigration but fat chance of that since we don’t have jobs and lots of other places are closer and more pleasant to work and live in.

    Simply, not going to happen.


    La Fayette Reply:

    I understand your fixation on Mexicans and Saxon racism (IIt’s too late here, so not going to make fun of you ;-)) , but
    1. TFR in Central and South America is definitely falling down. Rate of flight will go down.
    2. Difference in level of life btw USA and rest of the world is going to align. The same result.
    3. E.Europe and Russia harbors tens of millions of working age people. “two million” – that’s what Byelorussia could give you alone. It requires work from America. Life is a struggle, no freebies.
    4. Ooops, I’m out. 13 hours straight at 2 jobs. Good night.

    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 5:39 pm Reply | Quote
  • Saul Solex Says:

    unfortunately it may also be the case that the higher the IQ, the lower the desire to move to the US. You have to be pretty dumb to buy into the American Dream in the first place.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 7:01 pm Reply | Quote
  • Quote note (#206) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 7:16 pm Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:

    @Xoth @admin,

    Yes it’s interesting Caplan is on the run but that’s all.

    You may recall Moldbug on “manipulating procedural outcomes”?

    The only part that would be upheld is open borders.

    In the US the Progs have for years a lock on INS/DHS for years now down to the supervisory level. The immigrants you want including the respectable, high income High IQ and educated Brown ones can’t get in. They wanted the bums and they got them…but since 2014 it’s been mostly military age males. {== that’s key BTW.

    In any government operation Cthullu swims left except for war. Caplan can promise the world and Congress can pass all the laws they want. Progs will manipulate the procedural outcome down to the lowest level. BTW the actual Border Cops Hate it but as we can see are powerless.


    Posted on December 15th, 2015 at 11:46 pm Reply | Quote
  • NRx_N00B Says:

    So, blank slate-ism gets chucked under the bus as Caplan rediscovers the logic behind The Johnson-Reed Act​?


    Posted on December 16th, 2015 at 1:35 am Reply | Quote
  • Peter A. Taylor Says:

    Do we have a definition of “racism”? I had a college roommate who said the definition of a “racist” is anyone who’s winning an argument with a liberal. Does Caplan have a better definition?

    Also, has Caplan ever published the equation he is using to predict the rate at which immigrants assimilate? I thought he was modeling this as a step function: the instant a socialist voter steps foot onto US soil, the magic dirt transmogrifies him into a radical libertarian. Is there a better model?


    John Hannon Reply:

    “Do we have a definition of “racism”?”

    The American actress Margaret Cho does. Apparently it has something to do with Wee Jimmy Krankie –



    Posted on December 16th, 2015 at 2:27 am Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    100 is a low bar.

    Even more, diversity creates social instability, so problems will remain and soon they will want… even more immigrants!

    I’d like to live in a Western European nation.


    Posted on December 16th, 2015 at 3:43 am Reply | Quote
  • unknownFuture Says:

    Strictly as stated, in the excerpt, his argument is flawed or misleading. Transparently so, someone correct me immediately if I’m wrong.

    The basic arithmetic is nonsensical thus unworkable. Correct me if I’m wrong–aren’t economists supposed to be good at math or something?

    “Too many y? Let in enough x to keep the x share constant.” That’s his formula.

    Which is impossible. Start with population of P x-type people. Add one y-type person. You have population now P+1, the x share is P / (P+1) < 1, the y share is 1 / (P+1).

    You add even one y-type, the x-share goes down, no matter how many x you add "to compensate." You do not and cannot keep the share "constant" this way. It has the appearance of legerdemain, his proposing this, because all you can do by his strategy is **lessen the increase of the y share**.

    If you add y, you decrease the x share. His proposal is senseless and empty. It's nothing and meaningless. It's like a joke, or trolling.


    JL Reply:

    This has to be bad trolling.


    Posted on December 16th, 2015 at 4:39 am Reply | Quote
  • SanguineEmpiricist Says:

    -_- Come on you guys. All the people ITT who are dissenting are not free-marketers. politics is the art of acquiring goods that one side of the bargaining table will be happy with. Market operations/negotiations tries to have us all benefit so people with heterogeneous conceptions of the good can benefit via exchanges. We have just made a positive exchange.

    If any one read Hive Mind it’s the non-zero-sum/win-win type games that require and benefit from higher intelligence as opposed to standard tug-of-war bargaining which doesn’t . You cannot have it all on the first deal, instead we must seek a series of exchanges via the market to approach both of our goals.

    I’m just glad we got this far in the negotiation process, a good first step. (Caplan && Us).

    – Sanguine (Techno-Commercialists signing in).

    @Brett Steves. 100 seems pretty good, that would move the modal i.q. up significantly


    Posted on December 16th, 2015 at 6:15 am Reply | Quote
  • D. Says:

    Caplan not only imagines an effectively infinite population “of whites, Christians, English-speakers, and IQs>100” to balance out his desired Third World immigration, but he also imagines that a large proportion of this group would desire to emigrate to the United States even after the United States adopts Caplan’s functionally-entropic immigration plan.

    The reality is that his plan has the dynamic effect of making the United States a much less desirable destination for precisely those people who are desirable for the United States to attract. Furthermore, not only is the pool of desirables far smaller than Caplan cares to admit, even if it were possible to attract all of them, he willfully overlooks the effect of human capital depletion on the source countries, which for the most part are already facing a demographic precipice due to low fertility rates.

    Rather than passing from a denial stage to a bargaining stage, this is merely Caplan’s latest disingenuous attempt at reframing the immigration debate. No-one who thinks seriously about immigration should accept his terms of reference.


    Posted on December 17th, 2015 at 6:09 am Reply | Quote
  • A.B Prosper Says:

    [Reply]La Fayette Reply:December 17th, 2015 at 8:47 pmI understand your fixation on Mexicans and Saxon racism (IIt’s too late here, so not going to make fun of you ;-)) , but
    1. TFR in Central and South America is definitely falling down. Rate of flight will go down.
    2. Difference in level of life btw USA and rest of the world is going to align. The same result.
    3. E.Europe and Russia harbors tens of millions of working age people. “two million” – that’s what Byelorussia could give you alone. It requires work from America. Life is a struggle, no freebies.
    4. Ooops, I’m out. 13 hours straight at 2 jobs. Good night.

    However the vast bulk of immigrants into the US are from Mexico or Central/Latin America and while they are not terrible they come from a low educational interest culture with a lot of bad habits. On average Flynn Effect they are 1/2 Standard deviation below Whites with less impulse control and are highly natal. This makes them an immediate large scale threat to a functional system.

    1. Trroue this will just mean more Africans or Muslims which are worse.

    2. Maybe. Its quite dangerous though since the legitimacy bargain that keep the union together is growth. This kind of thing can and will create massive uncertainty. It might end the US which is not entirely a bad thing in some ways.

    3. Low trust culture. No thanks. If we needed more people I’d be fine with it but the US meeds less people not more. Deport 50 million or so and get back to me than.

    4. Likewise though belayed,


    La Fayette Reply:

    This makes them a threat to a _current_ system (which is already _not_ _current_). USA would be able to continue to function and fight “for the supremacy” even with whites in the minority. But that would require great changes in culture and system.

    1. The same thing applies for Africa and Muslims. TFR are falling everywhere. All you need is to stand some more generations. Go Amish.
    2. I understand the point (growth as a main factor of society survival). But for most of human history level of life was pretty stable (not counting shit times). Why not “try one more time”, as in the good old times?
    3. Having a choice between African, Mexican, Polish, Egyptian and Chinese immigrant, whom would you prefer? I mean “standard Polish”, so no fun Osteuropa gypsyes, Oasis bedouins, etc.
    4. I’m not native speaker. Could you explain the phrase?


    Posted on December 19th, 2015 at 9:39 pm Reply | Quote
  • This Week in Reaction (2015/12/20) | The Reactivity Place Says:

    […] Land notices Bryan Caplan entering the bargaining stage. There may be hope for him […]

    Posted on December 24th, 2015 at 6:18 am Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    ….because the universal caramel race(tm) fits within the democratic dream, and thus he will not encounter any real consequences for saying this, despite it being as much fantasy as the tooth fairy…


    Posted on December 24th, 2015 at 8:58 pm Reply | Quote

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