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	<title>Comments on: Quote notes (#40)</title>
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	<description>Involvements with reality</description>
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		<title>By: Kgaard</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26855</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Oct 2013 01:18:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26855</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, QE solves the problem gradually. You climb out of the hole. The debts that otherwise would not have been serviceable (think 1930s) get paid down to a reasonable degree. The overall nominal GDP rises to a level relative to the debt that makes servicing the debts possible. Then you can gradually exit the QE. The process has already sort of started. They made noises about this a few months ago and backed off (rightfully so) but we can see with the rise of the US 10-year yield to 2.5% from 1.5% that markets are already starting to think about the end of QE. (In this context, rising long rates imply more optimism about the economy rather than fear of hyperinflation, so they are a good thing.)

I&#039;ve been thinking about the argument that any sort of agreement with prevailing US monetary policy is just buckling under to the Cathedral. I don&#039;t know ... maybe it&#039;s true. But I don&#039;t see any realistic way to do it any differently than how it&#039;s now being done for the mass of people. And an individual is always free to run his personal life on a de facto gold standard, more or less ...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, QE solves the problem gradually. You climb out of the hole. The debts that otherwise would not have been serviceable (think 1930s) get paid down to a reasonable degree. The overall nominal GDP rises to a level relative to the debt that makes servicing the debts possible. Then you can gradually exit the QE. The process has already sort of started. They made noises about this a few months ago and backed off (rightfully so) but we can see with the rise of the US 10-year yield to 2.5% from 1.5% that markets are already starting to think about the end of QE. (In this context, rising long rates imply more optimism about the economy rather than fear of hyperinflation, so they are a good thing.)</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been thinking about the argument that any sort of agreement with prevailing US monetary policy is just buckling under to the Cathedral. I don&#8217;t know &#8230; maybe it&#8217;s true. But I don&#8217;t see any realistic way to do it any differently than how it&#8217;s now being done for the mass of people. And an individual is always free to run his personal life on a de facto gold standard, more or less &#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26830</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Oct 2013 17:40:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26830</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The reason the budget is &#039;healing&#039; is precisely because of QE. 

Here are 4 big ways ways:
(1) QE boosts asset prices, increasing tax revenues.
(2) QE keeps interest rates low, reducing the cost of government borrowing to incredibly low levels
(3) QE gooses the economy, keeping expenses like unemployment benefits down
(4) QE takes the place of sharply raising revenue by taxes, avoiding an enormous recession that is seen in Europe

The thing is, QE is running at about 1 trillion dollars per year. They wanted to taper just a little but feared it would send the economy back into recession.

If QE were cut off tomorrow, there would be a monster recession and sky-high deficits. How has anything been solved?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The reason the budget is &#8216;healing&#8217; is precisely because of QE. </p>
<p>Here are 4 big ways ways:<br />
(1) QE boosts asset prices, increasing tax revenues.<br />
(2) QE keeps interest rates low, reducing the cost of government borrowing to incredibly low levels<br />
(3) QE gooses the economy, keeping expenses like unemployment benefits down<br />
(4) QE takes the place of sharply raising revenue by taxes, avoiding an enormous recession that is seen in Europe</p>
<p>The thing is, QE is running at about 1 trillion dollars per year. They wanted to taper just a little but feared it would send the economy back into recession.</p>
<p>If QE were cut off tomorrow, there would be a monster recession and sky-high deficits. How has anything been solved?</p>
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		<title>By: VXXC</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26708</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[VXXC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Oct 2013 21:06:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kgaard,

&lt;i&gt;We want it to Fail.&lt;/i&gt;.   Some because they want it to fall, some because they want to take over the Cathedral as they believe they can run it better.   Neither a High Bar.

And you may want to consider the people you are trusting here with the endless money are &lt;i&gt; criminals&lt;/i&gt;.   

Summers for instance.  How&#039;d he get rich again?  Public service.   Clinton privatized and criminalized government.  The two are not identical but the nexus is the Beltway.  This isn&#039;t surprising when you know both the Rodhams and Clintons have convicted siblings - on drug trade charges.    This is who they are.  They happen to have had a political genius in the family - Bill.   Or they&#039;d all be in jail, like most of their associates.  

Forbes may be zealots but that&#039;s a good thing in certain parts.  It also tells us something good about Steve Forbes, who might understand the government &lt;b&gt; are criminals &lt;/b&gt; now.  Or perhaps he&#039;s a mere Zealot.  

We never run out of money because we print our own.  That&#039;s the Plan.    You&#039;re going to run out of money because &lt;i&gt; they are stealing it as fast as they can before the music stops &lt;/i&gt;.   They&#039;re not running an economy.  They&#039;re looting it.  An ancient practice of course.  

It&#039;s only new to America, that&#039;s all.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kgaard,</p>
<p><i>We want it to Fail.</i>.   Some because they want it to fall, some because they want to take over the Cathedral as they believe they can run it better.   Neither a High Bar.</p>
<p>And you may want to consider the people you are trusting here with the endless money are <i> criminals</i>.   </p>
<p>Summers for instance.  How&#8217;d he get rich again?  Public service.   Clinton privatized and criminalized government.  The two are not identical but the nexus is the Beltway.  This isn&#8217;t surprising when you know both the Rodhams and Clintons have convicted siblings &#8211; on drug trade charges.    This is who they are.  They happen to have had a political genius in the family &#8211; Bill.   Or they&#8217;d all be in jail, like most of their associates.  </p>
<p>Forbes may be zealots but that&#8217;s a good thing in certain parts.  It also tells us something good about Steve Forbes, who might understand the government <b> are criminals </b> now.  Or perhaps he&#8217;s a mere Zealot.  </p>
<p>We never run out of money because we print our own.  That&#8217;s the Plan.    You&#8217;re going to run out of money because <i> they are stealing it as fast as they can before the music stops </i>.   They&#8217;re not running an economy.  They&#8217;re looting it.  An ancient practice of course.  </p>
<p>It&#8217;s only new to America, that&#8217;s all.</p>
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		<title>By: VXXC</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26680</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[VXXC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Oct 2013 15:14:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26680</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Erratum: It&#039;s over when UST 3M are at 50 basis points, or 0.5%. At that point interest payments exceed revenue = bankruptcy/default. They&#039;ll wiggle around it but not forever...

Silly ol me, I was thinking in % not basis points.  Or bips. Or beeps.

Or f**king squeals. 

Full steam ahead.  You see..Quantum Economics says what the Titantic needed to do was go full steam ahead but shunt the water over to the untorn side of the ship.  That way according to Quantum economics the Fat Tail of a jagged tear in the Hull is distributed along the standard deviation centerline, allowing the Titantic to make New York..just on an angle.   It&#039;s all about tails, distributions, quantum physics and the velocity of quantums.   No problem can&#039;t be overcome, I&#039;ve proved it with money and I&#039;ll prove in time...when I go back and take Command of the Titantic immediately after the &quot;water market correction&quot;.   When they ask for my qualifications I shall burnish my Shiny Nobel Prize.  

BTW can you put in a word with the Committee?  If they say yes I&#039;ve got a great market for dynamite.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Erratum: It&#8217;s over when UST 3M are at 50 basis points, or 0.5%. At that point interest payments exceed revenue = bankruptcy/default. They&#8217;ll wiggle around it but not forever&#8230;</p>
<p>Silly ol me, I was thinking in % not basis points.  Or bips. Or beeps.</p>
<p>Or f**king squeals. </p>
<p>Full steam ahead.  You see..Quantum Economics says what the Titantic needed to do was go full steam ahead but shunt the water over to the untorn side of the ship.  That way according to Quantum economics the Fat Tail of a jagged tear in the Hull is distributed along the standard deviation centerline, allowing the Titantic to make New York..just on an angle.   It&#8217;s all about tails, distributions, quantum physics and the velocity of quantums.   No problem can&#8217;t be overcome, I&#8217;ve proved it with money and I&#8217;ll prove in time&#8230;when I go back and take Command of the Titantic immediately after the &#8220;water market correction&#8221;.   When they ask for my qualifications I shall burnish my Shiny Nobel Prize.  </p>
<p>BTW can you put in a word with the Committee?  If they say yes I&#8217;ve got a great market for dynamite.</p>
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		<title>By: Kgaard</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26638</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Oct 2013 04:13:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26638</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sounds good. There is a comeback to the idea that NGDP targeting locks in permanent inflation. It goes something like this: If you have good fiscal policies and hence good growth in REAL gdp, you&#039;ll get to your NGDP target without recourse to CPI juicing. Now ... this doesn&#039;t obviate your concern about the whole moral underpinning of NGDP targeting, but that&#039;s how this particular concern could be dealt with.

But on the government default thing ... it&#039;s almost a technical impossibility in the US since we print our own money. So it&#039;s not a useful track to go down. Another way to think about it is that the world gives us an endless supply of things to park money in: Currencies, bonds and stocks from over 100 countries, plus metals, real estate, art ... you name it. I don&#039;t think we have a real problem with money and store-of-value options. If one doesn&#039;t like our currency, one can simply buy Swiss bonds, or Sberbank stock, or an Indonesian mutual fund, or an apartment in Sydney, a bag of silver coins or a small beachfront hotel in Costa Rica. Lots of options. Currency management seems as much about crowd control as anything. In a democracy where everybody gets to vote (and vote themselves free stuff) you&#039;ve gotta let the currency wriggle around during crisis periods ...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sounds good. There is a comeback to the idea that NGDP targeting locks in permanent inflation. It goes something like this: If you have good fiscal policies and hence good growth in REAL gdp, you&#8217;ll get to your NGDP target without recourse to CPI juicing. Now &#8230; this doesn&#8217;t obviate your concern about the whole moral underpinning of NGDP targeting, but that&#8217;s how this particular concern could be dealt with.</p>
<p>But on the government default thing &#8230; it&#8217;s almost a technical impossibility in the US since we print our own money. So it&#8217;s not a useful track to go down. Another way to think about it is that the world gives us an endless supply of things to park money in: Currencies, bonds and stocks from over 100 countries, plus metals, real estate, art &#8230; you name it. I don&#8217;t think we have a real problem with money and store-of-value options. If one doesn&#8217;t like our currency, one can simply buy Swiss bonds, or Sberbank stock, or an Indonesian mutual fund, or an apartment in Sydney, a bag of silver coins or a small beachfront hotel in Costa Rica. Lots of options. Currency management seems as much about crowd control as anything. In a democracy where everybody gets to vote (and vote themselves free stuff) you&#8217;ve gotta let the currency wriggle around during crisis periods &#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: admin</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26621</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:49:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26621</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[@ Kgaard -- Sumner is smart and interesting, but he&#039;s a monetary central planner. For a start, NGDP targeting locks in inflation as a permanent socio-economic syndrome. Anybody serious about a free economy is going to have very profound objections to the entire framework. 

I&#039;ll put up a post for a serious back-on-forth on this quite soon (next week seems plausible).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Kgaard &#8212; Sumner is smart and interesting, but he&#8217;s a monetary central planner. For a start, NGDP targeting locks in inflation as a permanent socio-economic syndrome. Anybody serious about a free economy is going to have very profound objections to the entire framework. </p>
<p>I&#8217;ll put up a post for a serious back-on-forth on this quite soon (next week seems plausible).</p>
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		<title>By: Kgaard</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26613</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Oct 2013 23:12:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Couldn&#039;t one just file modern monetary policy under the heading of &quot;things that don&#039;t suck despite the progress of the cathedral?&quot; Monetary policy was considerably worse in 1933 than it is today. So even as other things have gotten worse, monetary policy has gotten better. It&#039;s like the DMV -- they figured out the problems and fixed them. Same holds for automotive technology. Or mattresses. Or freezers. They are better than 80 years ago. 

One could certainly use an alternative currency instead of the dollar (bitcoin etc) -- or just index all one&#039;s transactions to gold -- but I don&#039;t see any huge problems with the way the dollar is being run right now ...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Couldn&#8217;t one just file modern monetary policy under the heading of &#8220;things that don&#8217;t suck despite the progress of the cathedral?&#8221; Monetary policy was considerably worse in 1933 than it is today. So even as other things have gotten worse, monetary policy has gotten better. It&#8217;s like the DMV &#8212; they figured out the problems and fixed them. Same holds for automotive technology. Or mattresses. Or freezers. They are better than 80 years ago. </p>
<p>One could certainly use an alternative currency instead of the dollar (bitcoin etc) &#8212; or just index all one&#8217;s transactions to gold &#8212; but I don&#8217;t see any huge problems with the way the dollar is being run right now &#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: admin</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26606</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Oct 2013 22:24:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26606</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Your contrarianism (in this context) is very welcome, but you have to see that your position amounts to: &quot;The Cathedral is doing an OK job.&quot; You can&#039;t be surprised at the stubborn refusal to align with that.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your contrarianism (in this context) is very welcome, but you have to see that your position amounts to: &#8220;The Cathedral is doing an OK job.&#8221; You can&#8217;t be surprised at the stubborn refusal to align with that.</p>
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		<title>By: Kgaard</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26600</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Oct 2013 21:07:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26600</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We are not out of money and we are not going into any icebergs. Nick ... you are so ahead of the curve on so many things ... I don&#039;t understand why you keep falling for this canard -- especially given that you are aware of Sumner and the market monetarists, who laugh at Tamny and his ilk. Please note the 10-year US bond yield of 2.6%.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We are not out of money and we are not going into any icebergs. Nick &#8230; you are so ahead of the curve on so many things &#8230; I don&#8217;t understand why you keep falling for this canard &#8212; especially given that you are aware of Sumner and the market monetarists, who laugh at Tamny and his ilk. Please note the 10-year US bond yield of 2.6%.</p>
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		<title>By: Kgaard</title>
		<link>http://www.xenosystems.net/quote-notes-40/#comment-26597</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Oct 2013 21:02:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xenosystems.net/?p=1458#comment-26597</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oh for god&#039;s sake ... Tamny is TERRIBLE. He is a real nutcase. He has taken some of the ideas of Jude Wanniski and early supply-siders and either a) twisted them into pretzels that Jude would not have approved of or b) mis-interpreted them altogether. Forbes generally has been taken over by weak-thinking zealots.

This notion of defaulting on the debt ... it&#039;s ludicrous. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is declining nicely and is actually low by historical standards. The sequester process has been keeping government spending under control.

For a bit of common sense on the matter, here is a good piece by Grannis, &quot;The incredible shrinking budget deficit.&quot;

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit.html]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh for god&#8217;s sake &#8230; Tamny is TERRIBLE. He is a real nutcase. He has taken some of the ideas of Jude Wanniski and early supply-siders and either a) twisted them into pretzels that Jude would not have approved of or b) mis-interpreted them altogether. Forbes generally has been taken over by weak-thinking zealots.</p>
<p>This notion of defaulting on the debt &#8230; it&#8217;s ludicrous. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is declining nicely and is actually low by historical standards. The sequester process has been keeping government spending under control.</p>
<p>For a bit of common sense on the matter, here is a good piece by Grannis, &#8220;The incredible shrinking budget deficit.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit.html" rel="nofollow">http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit.html</a></p>
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