Quote notes (#93)

A convincing big-picture overview from SoBL:

The Russians and Chinese have slowly been building the infrastructure for a non-dollar system as well as amassing gold. The tough thing is selling this system to others. Couching it in terms immediately for an end to the Ukrainian problem, which anyone in the know started the moment the Ukrainians wanted to sign one deal with the Russians, allows it to frame the Russians and unaligned nations as victims of US foreign policy aggression. This is a pretty easy sell to a world that has seen the US move from missionaries a century ago to airborne robots that bomb supposed targets today. It can also be an easy sell to big players in the dollar recycling system like the Saudis.

Unreported by big US media as Secretary of State John Kerry flew around the Middle East being rebuffed and insulted, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to discuss the Middle East. The Saudis asked Bandar to step down recently, and this rapprochement between Russia and the Saudis feels light years away from Bandar’s threats to Putin last summer. To be a fly on the wall for Lavrov’s visit. This is after al-Faisal visited Sochi on June 3rd to meet with Lavrov and Putin. The Saudis spoke of a need to maintain the territorial integrity of Syria and the integrity of Iraq as a peoples. The Saudis could be more concerned with their regime stability now and do not trust the US. They are not a homogenous nation and witnessed what the US did with the Arab Spring. The Russians (and Chinese) might be able to offer the type of security the regime wants. Keep in mind the Saudis sent billions to the Egyptian military junta and the Russians are making friendly with them while the US still chastises the military leaders for being harsh with the Muslim Brotherhood.

June 30, 2014admin 28 Comments »
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28 Responses to this entry

  • scientism Says:

    How about the following scenario:

    1. Russia/China successfully break US hegemony and the US can no longer intervene in the affairs of other countries.

    2. Most of the non-Western world, freed from US hegemony, becomes non-democratic.

    3. At least some of these states are successful (i.e., authoritarian capitalism in East Asia).

    4. The EU breaks up under its own weight and some of its states reform themselves along authoritarian capitalist lines; they are successful. This leads to a gradual outbreak of anti-progressive sentiment in Europe.

    5. The US becomes Mexico II and we all forget that progressivism ever existed.

    Sounds too good to be possible.

    [Reply]

    nyan_sandwich Reply:

    6. The authoritarian-capitalist gene shredders and progressivist emasculation set a dysgenic timebomb that results in the civilized world being overrun by 20 billion cannibal warriors from Africa as it collapses into a dark age. Civilization never recovers.

    [Reply]

    scientism Reply:

    I think the odds of solving this problem are greater in the absence of democracy. For example, China is allegedly removing women from the workplace, having decided that families and “better quality children” are more important than women’s lib. See:

    http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21601486-why-womens-rights-china-are-regressing-pick-and-choose

    Mostly I cited authoritarian capitalism because it has been economically successful and therefore poses a potential competitive threat, even though I don’t find it ideal. States like Singapore tend to be highly pragmatic, even if they still have demographic problems, and the leadership might be easier to reach. Singapore and China also seem to be the only states with an interest in eugenics.

    [Reply]

    nyan_sandwich Reply:

    >I think the odds of solving this problem are greater in the absence of democracy.

    You will not find anyone around here who disagrees.

    >For example, China is allegedly removing women from the workplace, having decided that families and “better quality children” are more important than women’s lib.

    Oh wow, we might not be totally fucked.

    NRx_N00B Reply:

    5.5 Probably a good time to talk about composite carrying capacity or the principle of “scope enlargement”—this depends entirely on maintaining healthy trade; points 1 to 5 would trigger “scope reduction” [causing local resource shortages/scarcity] which will put the world into a tailspin. I think the only thing that can stave off collapse and buy time is to do whatever it takes to maintain some semblance of economic growth [trade, trade, trade w/ as little friction as possible]—because once the slide into grinding poverty begins and the feed-backs kick into high gear, most of us will be begging for the world of yesterday.

    [Reply]

    fotrkd Reply:

    Sounds too good to be possible.

    You need 1(a), 2(a)… all of which = war (in one of its multiple variations and possibly its ultimate incarnation) which will spoil/disrupt the effect somewhat.

    Not sure about this oxymoronic authoritarian capitalism concept either…

    [Reply]

    scientism Reply:

    “Authoritarian capitalism” just means the Singapore model, I forget who coined the term. It’s just government that’s non-democratic, stern and stingy.

    [Reply]

    Michael Reply:

    Things sometimes change very rapidly wise men prepare for this opportunity who could have predicted the complete re alignment of the mid east BEFORE the Yemeni fruit peddler got his assed kicked by the cops one too many times and went across the street and immolated himself setting the mideast on fire. NOW many say but of course it was only a matter of time. America is a tinder box now!But it neednt end up like the miseast did.
    Re the above we may have a bit less to worry about than we imagine; I dont think the mexicans will stick around during a civil breakdown or could easily be persuaded to head south.If the collapse involves the need for violence , women will instantly stop struggling and gladly p[lace the yoke the good lord has crafted for them around their own necks.homosexuals will likely stop being so gay. But are we men ready to do our part?
    All of you must at the very least be armed and supplied, but if you have a talent now is the time to prepare that. How is communication information possible post collapse this is the most pressing issue come on geeks !!!

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    “Sounds too good to be possible.” — Yes, but we all probably need that sometimes.

    [Reply]

    Posted on June 30th, 2014 at 8:39 pm Reply | Quote
  • Quote notes (#93) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on June 30th, 2014 at 10:01 pm Reply | Quote
  • Fxkv Says:

    The third sentence is incomprehensible.

    [Reply]

    Posted on June 30th, 2014 at 10:30 pm Reply | Quote
  • Michael Says:

    The Presidents bleeding from behind

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 1st, 2014 at 12:00 am Reply | Quote
  • fotrkd Says:

    Admin – I’m bored. You’re not writing anything. Nobody’s writing anything (I assume). Hell, even I’m not writing gibbering bullshit. And what happened to your promised weekly (monthly?) fiction posts? Meanwhile the comments threads have degenerated into Obama sticks dick up his ass/wouldn’t it be funny if most of the world got nuked sub-conservative juvenilia…

    I say we arrange a shamanic disinhibition ceremony based around a carefully concocted yet variegated brew (not merely laphroaig or however you spell it) and post a load of random shit until something – somehow – comes out as propellant. Or… something else equally dynamic…

    [Reply]

    Michael Reply:

    yeah lets act grown up and intelligent and get back to imagining if we still had kings Arthur when the zombies attack and Hal 5 AI enslaves us.then maybe afterwards we can start a twitter fight with some trannys and get into high dudgeon about being called racists sexists when actually we are scientific racist sexists.
    this alternative to the petrodollar thats been building for a dozen years while our debts and liabilities ave quadrupled and the CDOs have reached 800 trillion and the BIS has gotten the western nations to legislate bail in as in seizing everyone’s deposits when the nex bubble bursts ….well I could go on and on but the collapse you all purport to be enjoying the decline of is not academic. Large systems collapse very slowly and then all at once.If by some miracle it doesnt collapse its quite obvious the Cathedral is taking off the velvet gloves. I mean just because alex jones is paranoid doesn’t mean the NSA isnt build server farms to record EVERYTHING and the entire government from military to osha isnt being armed to the teeth with tanks choppers machine guns and trained ti shoot civilians.
    So we are supposedly the bright guys that are brave enough to notice intelligently without turning nazi communist populist except i see no plan i cant even figure out what we agree on besides things suck because democracy causes blacks. Got news for you my grandfather realized that when FDR got elected.

    [Reply]

    fotrkd Reply:

    I can’t read this. It looks like one big moan. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    [Reply]

    Michael Reply:

    youre wrong its a call to focus to sort through the rats nest and define what we believe and why. its my impression we are rationalists unafraid of hard truths so lets reason out the contradictions and face dark reality
    then lets put together a plan because correct me if im wrong – we care about the fate of mankind or at least our kind of man. well obviously we dont think hes going to survive so how will prevent this.not through democracy or revolution ok then how exactly? you want a king fine how do you get a bunch of tea partiers and communists to go for a king? after the collapse ok i doubt it but then explain.
    im fine with reading carlyle and evola but at least moldbug got as far as turning the elites and enlisting the military whats been done since?
    you want this particular blogs niche to be the new philosphy fine then get thinking .
    how is our reaction so different our racism so different whats the reductio of our implications if alter and throne are just an in joke what are we serious about? WTF is neo cameralism specifically. why would a “jeffersonian’ reset be so different there was no universal sufrage and we know what historical turns not to take [ shoot Lincoln before the war] why not ethno state if we think the science says cultures are not interchangeable among species and IQ [equality] regresses to mean? we like free markets because its like evolution fine how free? Exit where the fuck to; Idaho im already there and I can tell you the Cathedrals got a toehold the only serious place i can think of is make a deal with someone like Putin trade brains for land but better figure out how to control him. why not revolution if we could pull it off? even non violently? If all this is too late or its later than we think then whats the plan if it collapses sooner than later? If these are not what we are here for maybe i misunderstood. if it is what we are here for and you dont know how to start i suggest someone who writes better than i of the 8th grade ed write a essay on any of the above and let us rip holes in it then come back or another take a shot till we have a defend able position then on to the next topic then ont to integration then to implementation etc

    admin Reply:

    @fotrkd
    It’s a pretty good rant actually. Your points are well taken too. Most positive spin — it’s a transitional phase, within a deeper tide. (I’ve got my best six-week writing stretch of the year beginning today, so I’m treating the period through to mid-August as a critical test.)

    fotrkd Reply:

    @admin

    Then I apologise for jumping the gun (and vulgarity) and look forward to August (no rush).

    Aeroguy Reply:

    I respect what you’re trying to say but realize you’re herding cats and talking to people who have already been stacking beans bullets and bullion, some since obama was elected, smarter ones from when Au was $300 an ounce. China and Russia aren’t getting out of it, sure USG is the one who’s stuck in a vise grip between hyperstagflation and sovereign debt implosion, the result is the same, the $600+ trillion dollar derivatives market explodes like a hydrogen bomb inside every city in the world that has a stock exchange. Gold in China and Russia has a lot more to do with embezzlement and money laundering than a plan for hard currency. Global collapse of fiat currency, fiat currency collapses are everywhere in history, what makes this one unique is it’s global. (yes there will be martial law, ration stamps, shortages, riots, and probably war, but we already know this)

    What isn’t talked about as much is how quickly markets can recover, since people will be forced to hard money like gold and bitcoin which are outside central bank control (and thus government meddling which is what makes bad economic situations linger), it will all be over within a decade max (but people will think it will last forever, just like how they think status quo will last forever). Capital assets get sold for a song during these things.

    Its the perfect opportunity for those that see it coming, assuming you survive, we should expect every remaining one of us should emerge very wealthy men. Wealth enough to give us influence and credibility. Organizing will be easy at that point, then it’s just a race for a eugenically sound self contained enclave or singularity before r selection collapse destroys the rest of the world. Tryouts for nobility are coming up, it’s a trial by fire.

    [Reply]

    Postnietzschean Reply:

    Boredom is good. Boredom takes us away from endlessly exploring the same shit and leads us to genuine novelty.

    Has anyone here looked into the effective altruists? They’re basically a mix of LW-rationalists and Peter Singer fans who are into hardcore consequentialist utilitarianism. They got a lot of PR for arguing that the moral thing to do was (if you were capable) become an investment banker or hedge fund trader and donate most of your income to the maximum suffering-reducing causes (currently sending mosquito nets to Tanzania, or promoting veganism if you like animals).

    I mention them as they are a good model for a rationalist splinter group with strong capability for action. Utilitarianism is a simple philosophy that makes it a good Schelling point (in Moldbuggian terms, effective altruists are a natural army).

    Unfortunately, despite their interests in space colonisation and the singularity as long-term causes, the movement suffers massively from Conquest’s Second Law. The libertarian/transhumanist-leaning types are too focused on optimising their careers, while the identitarian leftists are able to focus on shifting the group towards their own values.

    But seriously, if NRx had hubs (EAs have Berkely and Oxford), and office space, and high-profile intellectual and financial sponsors, and a small army of volunteer elite college interns – we could get some worthwhile stuff done, like, for example, developing some seriously credible analyses of power.

    On a related note, I am quitting my job soon to launch a startup. I would have liked to have spent a chunk of time doing some serious writing and maybe helping organise some proper NRx projects, but I may not have the time. On the other hand, quitting has given me a serious boost in *energy*, so I will probably start getting more done on that front.

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 1st, 2014 at 12:25 am Reply | Quote
  • Piano Says:

    @fotrkd

    +1

    We need another Aya weekend.

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 1st, 2014 at 2:01 am Reply | Quote
  • Bill Says:

    I think ISIS is a proxy army supported by the USA/Saudi Arabia/Israel. ISIS’s purpose is to diminish Iran, and therefore Russia and China. Read all the stories about funding the ‘good’ rebels in Syria. Read about how ISIS has US weapons, explained away by the media as having been captured, but the simpler explanation is that ISIS was armed by the USA. Read about how the USA won’t deploy real force against ISIS, at the same time the Shite Iraqi government is calling in the Iranian special forces. All going back to Kissinger’s quote regarding the Iran Iraq war: “can’t they both lose?”

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 1st, 2014 at 2:54 am Reply | Quote
  • Orthodox Says:

    The BRICs are also building an alternative Internet. If they have an alternative financial system with an alternative network infrastructure to keep the U.S. out, then they have at least a shot at attracting serious foreign capital. It would be great if there is real competition, but this is all speculation and wishful thinking at this time.

    Russia and China are not friends. They have coinciding interests at the moment. Russia is the world’s largest oil producer and the second largest exporter. China is the most at risk from turmoil in the Middle East.

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 1st, 2014 at 3:10 am Reply | Quote
  • Kalvall Says:

    I’d like a clarification about Admins claim that capital is autonomous and what capital means to others on here.

    Since the 08 crash there has been constant predictions of imminent collapse, hyper inflation, blah blah blah. All of it has turned out to be crap. This idea that fiat currency is invalid because its not backed by anything? I don’t understand. What is the qualification of “real wealth”? I don’t buy the doomerism because it doesn’t pan out IRL, the date of this collapse goes forward a year each time its falsified by reality. I don’t believe some liberal regime is going to ramp up inflation to a dangerous point. However, I’ve been convinced of the sanity of the UKs austerity regime since it seems to be working reasonably well and forcing the likes of Lagarde to apologise for originally having claimed it would be a disaster. (Incidentally, another positive from the UK – the government is introducing both programming and finance onto the curriculum for all students.)

    I’m reminded of Baudrillards ruminations on the debt clock, he claimed it would go on forever and the debt would never be repaid. Makes some sort of sense to me. Then on the post marxist left you have Bifo who wrote “Poetry and Finance” and claimed Baudrillard was wrong, but all he does is whinge about the need to develop some new sort of therapy or balm to soothe the pain. Obviously, none of the romantic anti capitalist boredom coming from any of the left figures selling it is of much interest. However, I need to be convinced that what’s said about capitalism around these parts is backed up by something other than politicised rhetoric. Simplistic stuff about paying off the debt – ok, then what? It’s hard to imagine some moment when it’s suddenly demanded that we pay it all back. Are 1st world nations really facing the threat of collapse?

    I freely admit that my understanding of economics is dire to non existent. I’ll stop here before this becomes an even more blatant display of ignorance.

    Perhaps I’m not the only one having such trouble cognizing capital, can clearer definitions be provided?

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    “… capital is autonomous …” — not autonomous, but autonomizing (individuating as a complex system). The Santa Fe Institute is the key research hub for this kind of stuff, but the (long) Spontaneous Order essay in my Resources roll should be the first step on the road to understanding. As to more specific, concrete behaviors of the emergent capitalist entity — they’re complicated, ideologically obscured, and camouflaged. Anyone telling you a simple story about them has some snake-oil to unload.

    [Reply]

    Michael Reply:

    fiat currency neednt be bad it just always ends up that way.. as an economy expands expanding the money supply in relation to GDP is reasonable.Gold certainly isnt the only thing of value in the world and using it exclusively as money creates problems for instance it becomes too expensive to use as a metal. except in a crises everything is money and nothing is in other words your wealth is always in something be it stocks your house a business gold dollars swiss francs timberland or bitcoins.
    Every second people are changing their minds about what each of these things is worth in another of these things fiat currency is a convenient proxy or mathematical gauge or storage medium, people trust it more than say bitcoin because its sort of backed by wealthy countries. But if a country starts spending more money that it gets in taxes which they can do in several ways . they can print more of it or add some zeros to the central banks account , they can literally borrow it at interest by selling bonds, or they can play some really shady games like borrow from themselves and use their size to push markets they have even diluted cold coins. but if the debt gets enough to worry creditors which would include anyone accepting dollars for other assets and most markets like oil and gold are priced in dollars then sellers demand more of the dollars than before to accept the greater risk [inflation] or they insist on higher interest on sovereign debt bonds.
    if this starts to happen a country try to correct it in theory .inflation used to cause a wage price spiral as workers faced with higher costs demanded higher wages massive third world immigration has suppressed this reaction and so inflation acts as a massive hidden tax which not only do they not have to pass an unpopular tax hike they can get on tv and preen about how capitalists are gouging you at the pump or for healthcare etc never mentioning why capitalists suddenly want more dollars for their assets.a country is worth more than its gold supply but gold cant be created from a computer terminal or printing press supposedly bitcoin cant be forged or the supply increased.but while our debts are very high and our promised welfare liabilities ten times higher than that. another fear is the method of banking systems breifly the medici realized a profit could be made lending out all the gold they were entrusted with by writing letters of credit for interest on the basis of their good names as the bills of credit got traded in more complicated contracts fractional reserve banking was born and economies expanded rapidly again not bad in moderation but what can happen is a dollar deposited is lent out about nine times over this too expands the money supply. If akll the deposits and loans are priced soundly theres no problem if you start counting a subprime mortgage or student loan as if its solid gold then you have more funny money. the last problem is the most serious. in order to stimulate an economy or re inflate the bubble if you prefer in hopes of again collecting taxes governments give banks huge sums of cash to spread around to incite speculation. these banks however cant get many interested in borrowing to invest during a crash and since they are liable for the safe return and possibly a small interest on these trillions they play it safe and make massive bets at small returns on what they think will be really glacial moves in obscure markets like currencies baskets or interest rate differences or yes mortgage backed securities. money markets oetc so they each have tens of trillions in these bets against each other that they all duly hedge with counter bets with others to the point that no one has been able to figure out even with the super computers of world banks who even owes who what but its estimated it about 600-800 trillion none of these banks even has a trillion itself if it ever lost neither does even the USG in fact its about 100 years worth of world gdp and only one of these bets needs to go wrong to trigger a domino effect. hers an example the USG is lending money at 0% interest to stimulate a bank says ill take a trillion at 0% and buy Japanese government bonds at 1% 1% of a trillion is nice money so bank stocks rise lol thats called a carry trade. and is the easiest example then the counterparty pledges that contract against a bet that the libor wont exceed the LIBOR wont exceed the fed discount rate by .00006 % before 6/12/2017, and hedges that by a gold short against the swiss franc, and the coubnterparties to those trades ……now what if iran nukes tel aviv an earthquake wipes out LA and AIG has a trillion in claims the chinese decide to sell all their dollars because we defended taiwan, or spain and ireland riot and default on the EU debts it doesnt even need to be a black swan event all wealth is just peoples opinions about what they would trade assets for at any given moment one moment they will trade a countrey estate for a dozen tulip bulbs a day later they think its madness. now the bank of international settlements a sort of federal reserve of the world an alex jones nightmare agency conceived at bretton woods has coordinated all wester governments to pass laws that make it clear all deposits to any financial institution are no more than unsecured loans to that institution that can be substituted for stock in that institution or a “bail in” so if this happens we all lose anything in a bank or brokerage they also openly talk about exchanging all retirement funds for soc sec increases it wont matter the money would be worthless anyway and there really wont be anywhere to hide the big boys will be protected because the governments need them to run the system its impossible to predict how it will play out gold might plummet for years then rocket to 100k or not one things for sure it will be a mess and an opportunity

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 1st, 2014 at 6:22 pm Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:

    Of all of us Micheal is the most qualified for rule/governance. He gets it – no running no refuge. I’ve said same thing– they’re relentless, insaitable and insane. Flight only eggs them on, they’ll follow you. OTOH they’re cowards if faced.==] The bullying followed by craven cowardice is so characteristic of sociopaths that feminist advice for workplace bullying has the female being bullied getting a MAN for the picture gram solution.

    Mind you Rex Michael will need a scribe unless punctuation is outlawed in his realm. I mean as a tradeoff how much do we really need it?

    don’t change a thing mike, seriously.

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 3rd, 2014 at 12:50 pm Reply | Quote
  • Kalvall Says:

    I have to agree with VXXC, thanks Michael for the response. It’s incredibly rare to get explanations of the most important topics explained in such an easy to grasp form – punctuation be damned!

    [Reply]

    Posted on July 3rd, 2014 at 3:08 pm Reply | Quote

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