The single worst impediment to better forecasting is a culture in which respectable people aren’t supposed to notice the obvious precisely because it’s obvious. Dr. Merkel, for example, isn’t stupid or notably less competent than her peers; she’s just part of a zeitgeist in which there are certain things you aren’t supposed to say because they are so clearly true. But if you aren’t allowed to talk and write in public about the truth of stereotypes, it’s hard to always remember them when making decisions in private. (XS emphasis.)
When fretting about the radical entrenchment of the present social order, it’s worth recalling the degree to which it has cognitively incapacitated itself. Chronic lying is hard. Eventually, it results in mistakes.