Yes on their version of 30 years war, and yes on the future Islamic vortex post
that the bulk of the casualties will be sustained by the Ummah.

Your analysis strikes me as fundamentally sound. I might quibble at the margin, about the Shia, because their impact is not really represented by the 15% figure. In the core global hotspot (greater Middle East) it’s over a third, and the Shia powers (i.e. including Hizbollah) are generally more effective than their Sunni counterparts, with far greater capacity for large-scale coordination and focused purposive behavior. Perhaps even this is a legacy of the Caliphate-shaped vacuum in the heart of Sunni Islam that you describe, resulting in a central disorganization. In any case, the Shia have the Sunni on the back-foot at the moment, and the momentum is still predominantly carrying events in their direction.

I should add that no, democracy or managerial liberalism will not fill it.

Nor will Military Dictatorship, not for very long.

If you know anything about Muslims, or you know even seemingly worldly Muslims they have a profound and daily relationship with God.

91 years ago Ataturk abolished the Caliphate. They have been without a spiritual head for 91 years. This has left an enormous hole in their Hearts, and it was all too easily filled with RAGE. All of this was going to happen anyway, Israel or no Israel, American involvement or not.

Please remember they are decisively NOT HELLENIZED, they successfully immunized mainstream Sunni Islam 1000 years ago against reason’s assault on faith. “The Incoherence of the Philosophers.” The Faith is immune to reason, for God does not have to be rational or just. He’s GOD.

[those more open to reason – the Shia – actually have spiritual Heads incarnated as the Ayatollah they follow. They’re only 15% however. And not the problem].

So for 91 years people who have such a profound relationship with God it’s only comparable to Christian Religious orders, who’s term for “maybe” is “InShallah” have been unmoored from the spiritual foundations of their world.

Remember: It’s immunized against Reason. Looking at the West I see why.

Until that hole is filled: PROBLEMS PERSIST.

Turing Test between Candy Crowley and Lindsey Graham: which one is the computer?
Is either one Human? Is there a test for this? Could they both be defective computer simulations and neither one knows? They are both robotic and spouting nonsense.

My joke on Cathedral Dept of State Job interview: If Ataturk is responsible for the fall of the Caliphate*, then we can get Turkey blamed and suck them in. Any success in that direction means we are qualified for not just research grant$$, but possibly our own desks at State. If we are successful at starting a World War we could have our own Academic Departments named after us at Yale and Harvard. Riches and Honors would be thrown at our feet. Memorials. The sky’s the limit.

*Joking aside – the fall of the Caliphate and the hole left in the Muslim Heart are at least as responsible for our current ills as Skyes-Picot and the end of Ottoman rule.

These two aspects are related *but not identical*. Unless you can find a century in Islam’s History where they lacked a Caliph. NO.

They need a Caliph. Not in Jest.

Depends on whether the Islamic state in question is of the hardline Salafist variety or one in which the Sufi tradition is venerated – the latter no doubt being far less of a PITA in its dealings with non-Islamic states, and a far less oppressive place to live in.
Unfortunately Sufism has always been damned by the Salafists for its perceived heretical “innovation,” and it’s this uptight Salafism which is now the fastest growing Islamic movement in the world.
Doesn’t look too promising.

I don’t think Lindsey Graham has any idea at all what “an al-Qaeda-type religious entity” is actually going to be like (although I do think he’s going to find out).

“They want to… take over these Muslim countries **and create an al-Qaeda-type religious entity in the place of what exists today.”**

I’m not sure if Turing is the right test.

I have of course never actually met either one in the Flesh. Both appear in their respective fashion that they’d be remembered.

I’m still not sure if Turing is the right test.