Tsunami

Either Europe is absorbed into Africa or at some point it learns, pitilessly, to say ‘no’. Neither alternative is likely to be remotely pretty.

The 21st century would probably be a good time to be somewhere else.

… two years ago the United Nations Population Division released a shocking update to their population projections, revising the forecast for the continent of Africa upward to 4.2 billion in 2100 from 1.1 billion today. […] That is about a half dozen times greater than the population of Europe. […] Africa is almost certainly not going to add over three billion residents over the next 85 years. Something else will happen instead …

For an example of how ugly it looks — in the eyes of polite opinion — to get anywhere close to realism on the topic, try this. It’s unthinkable! So, by far the most likely outcome is that Europe buries its head in the sand until it is already deep into existential crisis, then lurches into some new and even more hysterical version of its traditionally-favored fascist ‘solution’. Quite probably, it will get to lose another World War before the complete extinction of its civilization.

(If there’s a positive spin to put on this glacial catastrophe, don’t hesitate to share it in the comments.)

April 30, 2015admin 49 Comments »
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49 Responses to this entry

  • Brett Stevens Says:

    The problem is democracy. Voters vote on feelings and wishful thinking, not reality.

    In reality, Africa must solve its own problems. The West is obsessed with Africa because it allows us to forget our own problems and focus on something we’ve beaten in the past, namely poverty.

    The breakaway movement is accelerating as people realize we are all held hostage to whatever plurality can be swindled by television news into voting for the latest hype.

    Right now, the American press is gearing up the propaganda machine for Bernie Sanders. A real socialist! As our president! It’s as revolutionary as Obama!

    They’re all getting ready to pat themselves on the back for it. It’s this kind of pathological behavior that dooms intelligent civilizations everywhere.

    [Reply]

    peter connor Reply:

    Bret, the Historical population of sub-Saharan Africa–15 million. Projected in the next 20 years, 1.5 billion. Ability to feed itself–nil….Mr. Malthus will be returning in short order, not just to Africa, but to China and most of Asia….so the Africans who are attempting to swamp Europe are the smarter, wealthier ones, because they know what is coming….
    Either the West puts an end to this insane process, or we will be joining the Malthusian collapse. Farm land and fresh water are diminishing, but the idiocy of politicians and leftists is ever increasing….

    [Reply]

    R. Reply:

    Democracy is not a problem here, human rights are. UNHCR too.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 2:16 pm Reply | Quote
  • AnonymousCoward Says:

    When it’s irrefutably proven in the next few years that Africans are genetically predisposed to low intelligence and African behaviour, I expect that the ugly “no” will prove to be easier. The preponderance of the resistance to the “heartless no” solution is driven by white females, and a big part of that is driven by their sublimated fascination with black males. Once black males are proven to be genetically, irreparably subject to African Brain Syndrome, the historical norm of female revulsion to their feeble-mindedness / weakness will reassert itself somewhat towards historical norms, in which white male “racism” was the unopposed order of the day. The main reason why white segregationist instincts (never far below the surface) are being suppressed is that “racism” is currently a sure ticket to white female disapproval.

    [Reply]

    Aeroguy Reply:

    So basically you’re suggesting we’ve already gone full bonobo.

    [Reply]

    Nathan Turner Overdrive Reply:

    180 SCHOLARSHIP on this topic here:

    http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=1866792&mc=21&forum_id=2

    [Reply]

    peter connor Reply:

    It has already been irrefutably proven, for more than a century, that the average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 70…..not much to work with there…

    [Reply]

    AnonymousCoward Reply:

    These people still think there’s a valid position that it’s not genetic. Hence why we spend all this money on early intervention, education, lunches, bussing, section 8 etc to make blacks stop being black.

    SJW’s won’t believe otherwise until we can predict your IQ from a blood sample.

    [Reply]

    nydwracu Reply:

    Chicks dig brutality, so if you buy that, the solution suggests itself.

    Infiltrate the justice system so that it looks the other way when whitey removes kebab, rather than when kebab rapes whitey’s daughters. Then remove kebab.

    [Reply]

    Karl F. Boetel Reply:

    Racism, up to and including explicit white nationalism of the “hey girl, just so u know, i am a white nationalist” variety, is not a sure ticket, or even a reliable ticket, to female disapproval, white female disapproval, progressive white female disapproval, or even progressive Jewish anti-racist social scientist female disapproval.

    In my experience.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 2:18 pm Reply | Quote
  • Tsunami | Neoreactive Says:

    […] Tsunami […]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 2:30 pm Reply | Quote
  • Orthodox Says:

    Glacial catastrophe is right. Global cooling is going to turn up the volume.

    The positive spin is: the UN. Unintelligent, unable, unpossible.

    Ain’t gonna happen. Fertility rates will collapse before this becomes an issue.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:00 pm Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    perhaps critical control point if EU will sign or not The Transatlantic Partnership and the Monetary Sovereignty Investment Partnership (TTIP). most likely they will sing and sacrifices last bits of soveregnity, in exachenge for promise to be burned down last.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:04 pm Reply | Quote
  • scott Says:

    Positive spin — 100 years is 100 years. How do you know we won’t all be genetically engineered 500+ IQ freaks of nature in 100 years? Some people are worried about the possibility of AI *right now.*

    Lots can happen in 100 years…more technology generally = less predictability. Especially biological technology.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:11 pm Reply | Quote
  • Alia D. Says:

    The future population estimate is coming from the UN, which is getting it’s data from the governments of the African nations in question. These governments are being motivated by the progressives to overestimate their current population and fertility and to underestimate future mortality. The Cathedral has no problem with lies as long as there is a short term gain in it for them somewhere. So the problem is probably not quite as bad as the UN statistics would suggest. At the very least I would expect that a rising African population would lead to a Malthusian rise in African mortality rates.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    Traditional Malthusian constraints are, ever increasingly, globally unacceptable. There’s no local Malthusian solution separable from a planetary — anti-universalist — cultural catastrophe. It’s only necessary to look at the role of the Western media in internationalizing all incidents of local misfortune to see why the prospect of a disaster tidily localized ‘somewhere else’ is disappearing as a possibility.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:11 pm Reply | Quote
  • scientism Says:

    We’re going to be so deep into Chinese unipolarity in this timeframe that it really doesn’t matter what Westerner’s think or feel about anything. The pertinent questions is, What Will The Chinese Communist Party Do? Agressive population control is an obvious option.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    China has a drastically non-sentimental border, migration, and citizenship policy. There’s no reason for them to get flustered about the situation in the slightest.

    [Reply]

    scientism Reply:

    China is heavily invested in Africa and they already influence the policy of the African countries they’ve invested in. As Western power wanes and Chinese power grows, African governments will have more ‘freedom’ to adopt Chinese policies like aggressive population control. Africa without population control is bad for business.

    [Reply]

    Stirner (@heresiologist) Reply:

    If the Chinese were to pressure their African partners to expel or suppress in-country NGOs, they would gain all sorts of breathing room.

    Anthony Reply:

    The real question then becomes “What is it in China’s interest to do about this?”

    I suspect that Chinese control will lead to more economic development and thus lower fertility even without enforcing population control. China is likely to be more sentimental about African wildlife than African humans – if nothing else, there’s an existing market in China for African animal products. Can’t take rhino horn for impotence if there aren’t any more rhinos.

    Enforcing population control won’t be as easy, as that will have to be done through puppet governments, and isn’t likely to be as efficient as in China. Keeping Africa somewhat close to the Malthusian margin has economic benefits (to China) by keeping labor cheap, but too many too desperate people threaten the stability needed for profits.

    Chris B Reply:

    I see no barrier to the USA/ Europe and China entering an ‘invite Africans’ escalating war in the same mold as the cold war wooing of the 3rd world. Creating entangling links is an old geopolitical tool which the Chinese fall back on, and which comes natural to any cosmopolitan power. Once the links are made, there is a leverage opportunity along the lines of using retarded African savage disgust (aka racism/ discrimination) as a means to browbeat opponents and demand inclusion in power for humanitarian needs. If you doubt this, than you are rejecting the history of the west which has show how it works. There is already an alarming amount of Africans in Asia..

    [Reply]

    scientism Reply:

    You have a point. For example, China has been trying to play the “America is racist” card with Ferguson and Baltimore, when they should be playing the “America can’t even control a riot” card. The Chinese response to aggressive European immigration control might be the same “Europe are the real racists” nonsense. I think the West is more prone to this sort of shortsighted power play for historical reasons though. If you think it’s universal, isn’t the situation beyond hopeless? What conditions can stop a state from making this type of power play?

    [Reply]

    NRx_N00B Reply:

    “China has been trying to play the “America is racist” card with Ferguson and Baltimore”


    Too funny, I guess that’s along the same lines as China’s “War on Terror” card [i.e. ethnic cleansing campaign] in Xinjiang.

    Bob Reply:

    The Soviet Union and Russia today, along with Iran, also played and play the America is racist card. Part of it is in response to Western criticism of their illiberalism. It’s also a legacy of Cold War anti-racism and anti-colonial nationalism that the Soviet bloc championed. This was ideologically different from contemporary Western anti-racism and the Cold War communist regimes tended to be relatively socially conservative. They also tended to be more internally focused than contemporary regimes and relations between countries tended to be very formalized and mediated through state organs. You still see this sort of thing in North Korea today:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8i141yqObg

    Chris B Reply:

    @Bob could you say it is ideologically different? It looks to me as if the only difference is that in the west it has become a self escalating system. Those in power find it useful for splattering other powers (think of all the anti-racist legislation directed at corporations) and for attacking any non state actors (think of the signatories for the UKs Hope not Hate organisation and the casual acceptance of anti-fa violence.) All the lesser people and bourgeois in the Unis see the power to be gained and feed it from the bottom. I see no reason why with enough time nations such as China, Russia etc wouldn’t go full retard in a similar way.
    Maybe a key driver is those in power having few and fewer overt ways of asserting control in traditional ways, hence increased leftism escalations in the form of anti-racism (think of the war on drugs, war on terror, war on poverty, gender mainstreaming etc as comparable groping for ways to exert control.)

    @scientism “What conditions can stop a state from making this type of power play?” – the structure in the world is all wrong. The key to power is, and has been aggressive undermining of competitors via their populace. This is not too dissimilar to the mechanism described by Szabo of the kings in the medeival period using negative liberties for the plebs to screw with lords and barons. You could argue that we have in effect been in race to the bottom failure mode since the creation of the USA. The USA being a proposition nation based on immigration has been stealing populations from europe and undermining the rest of the world. Can you think of any other entity which has aggressively taken population from others on the basis of “liberty” ever in history? This is again similar to the way that you became free if you became a subject of the king and were no longer a vassal to a local lord. This is leftism failure mode on a geopolitical scale, and once unleashed by the USA, other nations have eventually taken up the tactic and are engaging in the game. First Russia and the USA via the Cold War (the modern art and feminist funding, and national autonomy by the USA establishment to prove how more free the west is is logical in this setting), and now China and Russia will likely re-engage the game (just read RT sometime). The legitimacy of this game is hard baked into national sovereignty.

    Bob Reply:

    “Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela are having a field day with Baltimore”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-north-korea-and-venezuela-are-having-a-field-day-with-baltimore-2015-5

    Moscow-controlled Russia Today published a recording of an interview with Mark Mason, who describes himself as a US domestic and foreign policy analyst “for the international news media.”

    In the more than 11-minute-long interview, Mason criticizes Baltimore authorities for their heavy-handed response to the rioters and claims the United States is a “police state” where “racist death squads” attack and kill black people.

    Russian state television, meanwhile, called the protests and riots a “colored revolution” and “Afromaidan,” in reference first to the popular uprisings in several former Soviet republics and, second, to the deadly protests in Kyiv’s Maidan, or Independence Square, in 2014.

    In a blistering commentary republished by the Korean Central News Agency, the Rodong Sinmun newspaper — official mouthpiece of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party — accused the United States of being the “worst human rights abuser” on the planet.

    “The latest murder of the black man by a white policeman goes to clearly prove that the US is the worst tundra of human rights in the world,” the newspaper said, echoing things the regime has said in the past.

    “The US is apt to pull up other countries over their ‘human rights’ issues and dictate them to do this or that whenever it opens its mouth. This clearly proves once again that the US is not a human rights champion but the worst human rights abuser and the cruelest human butcher.”

    NRx_N00B Reply:

    @Chris B

    If HBD—ignoring Confucianism vs. Progressivism—plays any role in this, I can’t see China being anywhere near as suicidal as the West. Asians are far more ethnocentric and collectivist than whitey. Thoughts?

    [Reply]

    Chris B Reply:

    @nrx_noob if the power system incentivizes itself to demand everyone pretend black people are civilised, than the masses will do what they are told. There is too much “enlightenment” style belief in the autonomy of people’s decision making around NRx. Way too much.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:20 pm Reply | Quote
  • GC Says:

    4.3 Billion mouths to feed. They can barely feed the ones they’ve got. Then there’s civil wars, AIDS and a whole host of other diseases which are likely to rear their ugly heads. I’d be very surprised if that figure plays out.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:29 pm Reply | Quote
  • Orthodox Says:

    How will Muslim North Africa deal with the rising population of African Christians?

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    With a rising population of African Muslims?

    [Reply]

    Rasputin Reply:

    At 70 apiece, they’re gonna need a hell of a lot of virgins…

    [Reply]

    Exfernal Reply:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houri – it’s wishful thinking anyway, *snort*.

    Scharlach Reply:

    I’m sure Christian charities in America and Europe will gladly take them off their hands. Even some white evangelicals have this bizarre idea that black African Christians are their cultural brothers and sisters. It will come as quite a shock when they discover that African Christianity sometimes includes wife swapping and witch doctor consulting.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:33 pm Reply | Quote
  • Erebus Says:

    A fascist “solution” — let’s grant the word freedom from within those quotation marks — may be among the best possible outcomes for Europe. Many of the alternatives are too terrible to consider. If a solution can be engineered which isn’t too dirty — that is to say, which doesn’t lead to drowning the continent in blood — I’d view that as a more-or-less positive outcome.

    It’s not out of the question that such a solution could be almost entirely automated, and thereby implemented without pity and away from public view. And, no, I’m not advocating for another “final solution” — just for policies similar to those of Australia, but implemented even more stringently and harshly. It would be a fairly trivial thing, at this stage, to cover the Mediterranean with armed naval drones, under orders to re-route or sink illegal boat migrants. I would also support the deportation of resident aliens presently in Europe, provided they’re of non-European stock.

    …In any case, whatever happens is almost certainly not going to be pretty. But on the one hand we have an ancient, glorious, and beautiful civilization — and on the other we have something that, even now, resembles nothing so much as it resembles a swarm of starving locusts. I know which side I’d fight for, and I’d argue that even populism and fascism are preferable to cultural extinction. But that’s assuming we get an either/or choice, which isn’t likely, and it also assumes that there’s fight left in Europe, which is itself open to question…

    (By the way, it’s time somebody claimed Marie Byrd Land and started colonizing Antarctica.)

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 3:36 pm Reply | Quote
  • Scott Alexander Says:

    Haven’t we learned better than to trust predictions of the form “In a hundred years, [area] will have [ridiculously large population]?”

    More likely is that the African economy keeps improving (growth rate of > 5% this year) and they urbanize and demographic-transition and stop having so many kids, just like everyone else.

    [Reply]

    admin Reply:

    As Sailer notes, there’s about 40 years of demographic momentum built in, so it would be optimistic (in the extreme) to count on that. (Also worth considering how much of that “>5% economic growth” is simply a more comforting way of describing population growth.)

    [Reply]

    Scharlach Reply:

    I was about to respond, pointing to years of growth in Nigerian GDP without a correlating rise in literacy rates. But then I decided it was worth a blog post, which I’ll work on tonight.

    Short version: economic growth is not enough to crash fertility rates, just as it wasn’t enough in Europe or America. There are other factors, the most obvious being not just literacy but female literacy.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 4:40 pm Reply | Quote
  • Tsunami | Reaction Times Says:

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    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 6:04 pm Reply | Quote
  • Rasputin Says:

    “Once you go black, you’ll never go back”.

    [Reply]

    Kwisatz Haderach Reply:

    LOL!!!

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 7:08 pm Reply | Quote
  • Durtal1963 Says:

    With regard to the possible ‘Fascist solution’ can I recommend a BBC TV drama from 1995 called variously ‘Black Easter’ or ‘No Man’s Land’. It seems so prescient that I am suprised it hasn’t been repeated.

    http://explore.bfi.org.uk/4ce2b7e621166

    [Reply]

    Nathan Turner Overdrive Reply:

    It will more likely be this:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_March_%281990_film%29
    “We are poor because you are rich.”
    It’s up on YT (unlike Black Easter) if you want to be Fully Triggered.

    [Reply]

    Posted on April 30th, 2015 at 11:11 pm Reply | Quote
  • spandrell Says:

    As for positive spins: France will fall first.

    [Reply]

    NRx_N00B Reply:

    Once their first reactor melts down, then the rest of Europe’s problems only intensify.

    [Reply]

    Posted on May 1st, 2015 at 12:32 am Reply | Quote
  • low income low status low brow juvenile reader Says:

    “China is likely to be more sentimental about African wildlife than African humans – if nothing else, there’s an existing market in China for African animal products. Can’t take rhino horn for impotence if there aren’t any more rhinos.”

    Except not at all.

    In reality the chinese have not behaved this way with regard to african megafauna. They don’t care one grain of rice about driving an animal to extinction. A commenter on sailer’s put it “game theory is hard to beat”. They all figure if they don’t get the money someone else is going to get the money. “No more rhinos” is tomorrow’s problem. Today’s problem is they need the money (and there is HUGE money in this trade) so they can afford to buy property in Vancouver and get out of their ruined, disgusting ticking time bomb of a country (which, got that way because of this same attitude applied to domestic pollution, etc). Anglosphere and North European Whites are literally the only people who have shown any inclination to protect animals.

    As for what China will do, wouldn’t they just encourage africans to migrate to Europe? The same way mexico’s elite encourage their human waste to move to USA?

    [Reply]

    Posted on May 1st, 2015 at 11:45 am Reply | Quote
  • Xavi' Says:

    Lively discussion, all topics mostly covered, no need to add my share. Except to say. There will be no Cooper, CASE, TARS or Tesseracts to get us out of this one I’m afraid fellow travelers.

    [Reply]

    Posted on May 1st, 2015 at 4:50 pm Reply | Quote
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