Archive for January 15th, 2014

T-Shirt slogans (#7)

 

Social Justice is my Trigger

(From ‘Anonymous Coward’ in — and triggered by — this thread.)

January 15, 2014admin 20 Comments »
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Chaos Patch (#8)

I’m setting off for a family Vietnam and Cambodia trip today, lasting for a couple of weeks, so blogging will be lighter than usual for a while. The off-the-shelf answer to that, of course, is a Chaos Patch. I’ve already received some suggestions from people for off-topic discussion items to get it started.

Angkor Wat is on the travel itinerary, so there’s bound to be some stimulation from my side. If I can get comparatively coherent short travel pieces together, I’ll post them separately — but odds and ends will be dropped in here.

It’s the last few days of the Year of the Snake, so everyone needs to hurry up and get any cold-blooded business finished. (The Horse comes next.)

ADDED: Apologies in advance to anybody whose comments get caught up in moderation for longer than usual — I’m bound to be drifting in and out of Internet connectivity, so some disruption of normal service is to be expected.

January 15, 2014admin 42 Comments »
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2014 Prognoses +

Since predictions solicit feedback from reality they constrain dishonesty, and indicate where correction is needed. This is an outline of what Outside in anticipates from the year.

World

Punctual catastrophes resist remotely confident prediction, unless negative ones. Neither Artificial Intelligence explosion nor Drexlerian nanotechnology will impact in 2014. Nuclear fusion will not be (de-)cracked. A super-volcano will not destroy what remains of human civilization. Global influenza epidemic? Mega-meteorite strike? A malign black swan of cataclysmic scale? — nobody knows.

The three potential catastrophes of greatest prominence heading into 2014 are Asia Pacific war; Sunni-Shia nuclear confrontation; and US dollar (or Japanese Yen) collapse. The probability that any one of these crosses the crisis threshold this year is substantially less than 50% (but possibly greater than 10%). If any does, the chance of a cascading disaster involving one or both of the others spikes dramatically. The probability of a secondary, but still major crisis, is of course far larger (i.e. likely).

The doctrinal neoreactionary prediction for the year is continued, steadily accelerating, general collapse, with an intensity broadly correlated to democratic progress. There will be no economic recovery, or significant resolution of international security issues. All the fixes on offer are fake. In the developed world, underlying human capital deterioration will subvert every proposed remedy, dragged downwards by morbid cultural variations on a remorseless dysgenic theme. The default fascist solution will be undermined by Internet-enabled exit options, exacerbated by inter-state non-cooperation. The Cathedral will fray, but not snap.

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January 15, 2014admin 9 Comments »
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