Chaos Patch (#77)

(Open thread + links)

Fifty years hence. An NRx tribe, and its buried roots. The start of a conversation? The terrible herd (also). Thoughts on abortion. Traditional Britain. The week in reaction (and don’t forget this).

Chinese geostrategy. The cryptic dragon, and its historical echoes. Global commerce visualized. Cheap oil and global disorder. A Venezuela update. Wolves in Bangkok? Schism in the Yakuza. Laibach in North Korea.

Limits of quantitative easing. Decentralized planning. Statistical discretion. The communist legacy. The story of our time.

NRO’s Kevin Williamson against the Trumperistas: “In The Duel, his account of the confrontation between Adolf Hitler and Winston Churchill, the great historian John Lukacs explores one of modern history’s terrible ironies: that even as the national socialists were defeated in Germany, national socialism became the world’s predominant political philosophy, albeit stripped of the cruelty and hatred that animated its German expression. ‘We are all national socialists now,’ he writes. Some models are a little more nationalist (Trump) and some are a little more socialist (Sanders), but both reject laissez-faire categorically. ‘Hitler was not the founder of National Socialism, not even in Germany,’ Lukacs writes, ‘but he recognized the potential marriage of nationalism with socialism, and also the practical — and not merely rhetorical — primacy of nationalism within that marriage. … He also knew that old-fashioned capitalism was gone; that belonged to the 19th century.’ Lukacs relates an episode in which Hitler was asked whether he would nationalize German industry. Hitler insisted there was no need: ‘I shall nationalize the people.'” (Despite the Godwin Ragnarok, it gets the history basically right.) Trump’s inheritance (also), and New Yorker coverage, with pushback.

Rise of the cultural libertarians (and a response). Non-suicidal libertarianism. Bitcoin-fork commentary (1, 2, 3). The Columbia fainting couch.

Christianity’s early history. Toxic compassion. On teleology. A jealous god. Realism in religion. Faith in the future.

Mystic cognition, and delirium without acid. Entropy for Bayesians. Quantum weirdness looking resilient. An exascale computer. Biology of morals. Apocalypse Neanderthal. Psychology’s reproduction problem (see).

It begins. More computer racism. Literary dynamite. Slavery gets a bad rap. Black-on-black. When book clubs attack. The NYT’s noticing problem. Obama didn’t help. A modest proposal. Henry Harpending, hate criminal. Genophobia.

A gay “sub-culture of death“.

Trouble at the Hugos (1, 2, 3, 4), but at least this came out of them. Victorian Hugos. The CIA and the literati.

August 30, 2015admin 39 Comments »

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39 Responses to this entry

  • Chaos Patch (#77) | Neoreactive Says:

    […] Chaos Patch (#77) […]

    Posted on August 30th, 2015 at 4:20 pm Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    Wonderful list of links; thank you for the mentions and my favorite Sunday reading, as I’ve come to appreciate it greatly. Time for a full bowl of 1792 flake, some hot Sumatran coffee, and plotting the upside of the end of the world 🙂


    4candles Reply:

    I’ve not really understood the current trend of thanking admin for each Chaos Patch, though I have had similar dreams of my dog bringing me a slobbery copy whilst I lie in bed on a Sunday morning. That’s not to sound ungrateful or impolite you understand. But this edition I’ve once again read in order, and I’m inclined to pass on a similar level of praise. I’d say the arrangement is operatic, if I truly knew what that meant.

    Mozart lurks, whilst the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat haunts this particular anthology. With fuckwits like us, it’s a wonder anyone tries to do anything at all…


    Posted on August 30th, 2015 at 7:20 pm Reply | Quote
  • Chaos Patch (#77) | Reaction Times Says:

    […] Source: Outside In […]

    Posted on August 30th, 2015 at 8:01 pm Reply | Quote
  • Frog Do Says:

    I find the Hugo awards controversy narrative recast to be Tor Books vs everyone else to be super fun. If NRx could focus on showing how controversies like this are tools used to manipulate the movement of capital it would go a long way towards converting Brahmin.


    Posted on August 30th, 2015 at 8:27 pm Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:

    Or we could go into Space Admin and rise above this nonsense….

    We could do that too…–Power-and-Thermal-mission-planning

    None of those links lead to a real challenge, a foe worthy of a man’s steel. An intrinsically deadly foe.
    Not that they don’t have to be dealt with but it’s garbage disposal, not World War 2.

    The world will always have it’s share of freaks and losers. That they’re dominant now is because the natural proprietors of America and the West decided to share power. That will end as the current crew can’t run a bath, and if they meet any kind of justice including Darwin’s the rest of us can get on with building, living, going up.


    Posted on August 30th, 2015 at 10:47 pm Reply | Quote
  • Hurlock Says:

    Doolittle is such an obvious con-man.

    And he is responding to a post on Aristokle’s blog, who is even worse.

    It’s best to ignore both.


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    Doolittle is HRx all the way down.


    Chris B Reply:

    Would MM (being a Carlyean) be classed as HRx?


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    Can you point me to where MM is calling for heroic action to be taken?


    admin Reply:

    Confidence in appeals to authority is certainly pure HRx.


    vimothy Reply:

    That’s surely true.

    I wonder how Moldbug feels about appeals to authority …

    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 10:00 am Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:

    Out of Chaos order comes.

    ISIS channels Ron Paul….


    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 12:14 pm Reply | Quote
  • vxxc2014 Says:

    Don’t worry about being fuckwits and no one doing anything at all. No one who does anything is going to listen to councils of lay down and die cursing existence – because one must fight and work to maintain it – for very long.

    In fact they’ll stop paying attention altogether. There’s nothing on offer.

    You may now return to Highbrow pretensions and delusions of LARP Lord Aristos Daily Show audience philosophy. Aristocrats by the way became so by fighting and creating security and order – in patches – where there were patches of chaos. Not by affecting pretensions.


    admin Reply:

    That just sounds drunk.


    wenshuang Reply:

    They always read like that to me.


    Lucian of Samosata Reply:

    “Aristocrats by the way became so by fighting and surviving the mechanisms that selected out all the never-to-be-noble schmucks.”



    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 12:19 pm Reply | Quote
  • Barnabas Says:

    Funny, just two days ago I was scanning Amazon for books on the Ordnung. Those ultra-backward Amish hicks must have had some real visionaries to see the destructive power of technology and successfully defend against it. Durkheim’s brain was the product of 8 generations of Rabbis but the Amish understood anomie better than he did and got out in front of it.


    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 1:32 pm Reply | Quote
  • Chris B Says:

    @Appeal to authority? I made no appeal to authority. I’m trying to establish the boundaries and prerequisites for being labeled “Hrx” which is being avoided.


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    From what I can tell, HRx is critical of the effectiveness of NRx political analysis, accusing it of practical in-consequence and intellectual immaturity. In place, HRx proposes to organize a mobile populism to restore western aristocratic ‘noblesse oblige’ culture. From the perspective of HRx, the culture of NRx is boring, lonely, and full of juvenile snark. Economically, you can expect NRx to be profit-motivated and growth-driven, and such industrial mutation cycles are driven by creative destruction (as per Schumpeter). Although similar concepts of nonlinear renewal trace their roots into deep tradition, HRx views it mainly as a monstrosity of becoming, and quite at odds with the eternal stable order of the True Good. Only the spiritual return to a common brotherhood of ethnic solidarity a authoritarian tradition will restore the deplorably ‘modern’ West to its former glory. The real mystery is why HRx bothers writing about NRx at all.


    Chris B Reply:

    That stikes me as a complete mutilation of the entire tradition Moldbug was trying to resurrect, and an attempt to cut off any points made by him which do not fit with a pre-concieved/ desired anarcho-capitalist/ libertarianism with discrimination (aka wish.)

    Compare to where it originated (see the first one on Carlyle and Manchester Liberals)-


    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    “Thus the Carlylean foreign policy for USG and Britain in the 1930s is the same as the Carlylean foreign policy for USG today: abandon, disown and release all foreign protectorates, dependents, “allies,” client states, puppet states, and other “little friends.” … Governments often have things to say to each other, but they can get used to saying it by email.”

    This is great advice, I don’t know why you think ancap-style free association is an attempt to ‘cut off’ of these isolationist points, it seems to me to be precisely conducive to them, but I am almost starting to agree with your repeated assertions that the assumed right to free association is ‘wishful thinking’. Social conflict theory heralds the end of NAP and the beginning of neo-cameralism (and cold collectivism). But, if you want to actually make an argument to what is a ‘mutilation’ of MM’s and Carlyle’s traditionalism, instead of asserting it in bad faith, than I will listen, otherwise I can’t see that you’ve made any interesting remark warranting further response.

    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    On second consideration, ‘(auto)-mutilation’ is probably a fairly accurate descriptor of how ultracalvinism is transmitted through culture, beginning with the foundation of generalized crucifixion (cross-carrying) and then mut[il]ating via an inward ‘spiritual’ violence of asceticism until it reached the climactic ‘universal Auschwitz’ victimology of today.

    Chris B Reply:

    “otherwise I can’t see that you’ve made any interesting remark warranting further response.” does that mean you are tapping the mat?

    And any coherent reading of the entire Carlyle connection makes the underlying an-cap claim a joke. A pretty bad joke at that.

    Dark Psy-Ops Reply:

    MM is not dismissive of ‘libertarianism’, or even ‘ancap’, but he is critical of the utility of the terms. Moldbuggian royalism is a recognition that in the course of securing natural law (‘liberty’) a state is entitled to employ all necessary means. Moldbug induces procedural royalism from a libertarian logic (the step from Mises to Carlyle), and when he proclaims ‘it is not hard to tell who is a cop, and who a criminal’, it’s hard not to believe him. Yes, he is especially critical of the notion of anarchy, seeing it as a tyrannical leftist substitute for freedom, which is fair, but a high tolerance for chaos is also a tech-comm denominator. Where libertarianism is a poorly formulated royalism, anarcho-capitalism is the same in relation to neocameralism.

    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 1:39 pm Reply | Quote
  • Hattori Says:

    It works!!


    Hattori Reply:

    Also, for those who read the Three body problem. Chinese getting into SETI.


    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 6:17 pm Reply | Quote
  • haishan Says:

    “Here, we focus on data mining research relating to combating discrimination. This research can be broadly categorized in terms of methods that achieve fairness by modifying the classifiers and those that achieve fairness by modifying data.”

    Machine learning researchers are making damn sure that our robot overlords will have restricted noticing capabilities, even if they have to “modify data” to do so:


    Erebus Reply:

    “Figure 1” sums it up. The caption:

    “Consider the fake probability density functions shown here where the blue curve
    shows the distribution of SAT scores (Y) for X = female, with µ = 550, σ = 100,
    while the red curve shows the distribution of SAT scores for X = male, with
    µ = 400, σ = 50. The resulting fully repaired data is the distribution in black, with
    µ = 475, σ = 75. Male students who originally had scores in the 95th percentile,
    i.e., had scores of 500, are given scores of 625 in the 95th percentile of the new
    distribution in Y, while women with scores of 625 in Y originally had scores of 750.

    (Italics added.)

    Then let’s consider the “descriptive” image the study’s authors used on page 10 here:
    …Sums it up nicely. Moldbug wasn’t wrong — America is a communist country. Now what we’re seeing is that heretofore “nice progressives” are starting to get a bit overbearing, even nasty…


    Exfernal Reply:

    I hope that hobbling them in this manner would cripple their effectiveness. The more spectacularly, the better.


    Posted on August 31st, 2015 at 8:25 pm Reply | Quote
  • Lucian of Samosata Says:

    What’s the official NRx stance on William the Conqueror and the Normans?


    admin Reply:

    Doesn’t ‘Mandate of Heaven’ cover it?


    Posted on September 1st, 2015 at 11:30 am Reply | Quote
  • Kgaard Says:

    Shit’s hitting the fan in China. Nick are you feeling any of this in Shanghai? Looks like a full-blown Austrian collapse is taking shape, the stuff of Hurlock’s dreams. While China’s data are notoriously unreliable, South Korean exports fell 14.7% YoY in August. Not good. With the Fed wanting to HIKE into this — and with the calendar being ominous (Sept/Oct worst part of the year) — it looks grim out there.


    Hurlock Reply:

    China has been kicking the can for almost a decade now, refusing to let its real estate bubble pop back in 2008/2009 by cutting interest rates by a whole percentage point and engaging in a stimulus program worth 17% of its GDP. The real estate and means of production markets, as is expected, stopped falling and started gaining once again.

    In the years that followed the BOC simply continued cutting rates wherever there were signs of a slowdown and raising them whenever the inflation rate got too high. There were people saying this cannot work forever already a year ago, even two years ago, and now that the shit has finally hit the fan, China is pushed to engage in much more radical measures if it wants to avoid recession. Long-term of course, it is better to suffer the recession now, than going ZIRP-mode and ending up in an even worse situation some 6-7 years from now.

    Also, considering the policies which caused all of this, it would be much more proper to call it a “Keynesian”, rather than “Austrian” collapse.

    I too am interested what our host has to say, because, as is evident, it seems the Chinese government is really not that competent after all.


    Alrenous Reply:

    I believe Chinese competence is supposed to be merely better than domestic competence. That said, as an ancap I am ontologically committed to believing all statist success is temporary, and have repeatedly remarked on the remarkable mendacity of Chinese economic statistics. The healthy don’t need to lie.

    Technically speaking the correct way to ease off a heroin drip is the morphine drip, followed by the methadone drip. Go for a slow, rolling recession rather than trying to pay back all the burnt capital at once.

    In practice I would freeze rates and allow a recession. Once that one showed signs of recovery, I would start easing into free-market interest rates. Say 1% +/- 1, then +/- 2, and so on. Pausing when recessions occurred, continuing when they let up.

    I believe this method leads to more total pain and economic loss. However, the short method ends up with people dead, which in my opinion trumps economic variability.

    The slow method also ends up with people dead, but not nearly as many. Setting interest rates is murder.
    I mean, if you’re okay when the state murders people, then whatever. If instead you believe murder is murder…


    Kgaard Reply:

    I think what they need to do — what they’ll be forced to do — is a devaluation. Already they can’t square the circle. That’s why their forex reserves are plunging. There are roughly 20 relevant precedents for China’s current mess just from the past 20 years (dating back to the Mexican devaluation of 1994 which, actually, is a pretty good analogy to what is happening in China). Every single one of these ended with a devaluation except one:

    The Baltics post-2008 avoided devaluation. The Estonian economy contracted 19% YoY in Q3 2009, and the Latvian economy contracted 17% in Q2 2009.

    That is what China may be facing if it tries to keep the currency stable. The political fallout from such a move would be off the charts.

    admin Reply:

    Seems OK at street level (which probably doesn’t say that much).


    Posted on September 1st, 2015 at 3:29 pm Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    “The story of our time”
    kind of sad story, but you get what you wish for.
    Even nowadays in India most girls do not planing for themselves anything but becoming good wife and mother. And they have (not our times) examples for them of such wife and mother like queen Draupadi. Once Sati asked Draupadi what kind of secrete she has to make her husband feel so happy about her. Answer was quite astonishing: “I go to bed last one when everybody already sleep, and I wake up first. I take care of army suplies and buy 170 deers everyday to feed the army. I take care of kingdom treasury. And I choose personally every one out of 100 girls in my husbad harem by myself. ” and many more thing. That can be found in Mahabharat Forest book. So, how she was paid for been such a carring wife. She was lost in card game and publicly dishonered by winner, who tried to undress her publicly. And she did not filed for divorce and continued be a best wife humanity ever knows.

    so many choises did not works very well moder woman, but definitely she can get “few good dates”


    Posted on September 2nd, 2015 at 12:21 am Reply | Quote

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