XS has received a firm (but fair) scolding for not linking to this development in yesterday’s Chaos Patch (or elsewhere).

Here’s the website and a nested blogpost (containing a deeper link to the whitepaper (which is good)). The (minimalistic) manifesto is an ideological mish-mash which has been worked-over by PR imperatives and demands cold scrutiny to extract its real content.

From the whitepaper:

A word of caution, at the outset: the legal status of DAOs remains the subject of active and vigorous debate and discussion. Not everyone shares the same definition. Some have said that they are autonomous code and can operate independently of legal systems; others have said that they must be owned or operate by humans or human created entities. There will be many uses cases, and the DAO code will develop over time. Ultimately, how a DAO functions and its legal status will depend on many factors, including how DAO code is used, where it is used, and who uses it. This paper does not speculate about the legal status of DAOs worldwide.

The XS prediction is itself predictable: This only goes in one direction (and eventually its going to be vast).

ADDED: When the marketing aesthetics go in this direction, we’re done.

ADDED: Andrea Castillo comments.

May 23, 2016admin 31 Comments »

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31 Responses to this entry

  • DAO | Neoreactive Says:

    […] DAO […]

    Posted on May 23rd, 2016 at 4:01 pm Reply | Quote
  • Brett Stevens Says:

    “You can’t code away your legal responsibilities,” said Mr. Murck, who is a fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard. “This is something that has been tried before and has failed before.”

    That depends. If they headquarter the thing on the high seas, and people interact with it there, no laws apply, we might think.

    But if people are connecting to this from established states, then it’s going to be regulated by law.

    Even more importantly, it is likely that these business entities will rediscover what made the older model of government popular: law and order are great to have.


    Posted on May 23rd, 2016 at 4:50 pm Reply | Quote
  • Mike in Boston Says:

    Looking forward to “Blockchain of the Month” as a regular feature. Both Tezos and ZCash seem noteworthy.


    Posted on May 23rd, 2016 at 5:45 pm Reply | Quote
  • Stirner Says:

    The attack vector for FEDGOV would seem to be the human participants in the DAO. Where and how they put their USD into the DAO – or later convert their accumulated *eth* into USD will be the key point of vulnerability.

    The actual DAO seems pretty well insulated. No centralized server to shut down. No owner to haul into court or into prison. The devil is in the details of the DAO, but how does one actually shut this down?

    FEDGOV may be able to make it hazardous for humans to participate in the DAO, but criminalizing it is far different than actually regulating it.

    How Moldbug should have framed the reboot: “Don’t be worthy, instead, write worthy code….”


    Posted on May 23rd, 2016 at 9:04 pm Reply | Quote
  • Aeroguy Says:

    You can have a gordian knot of code, but USG still has a sword, if they decide to destroy something they (bureaucrats) can always reclassify a particular action as a form of terrorism. The underlying tech has been discussed before, this particular application of it is so crude it doesn’t even sport the usual protections more cautious Whigs put into their doomed democratic experiments. The possibility of a reactionary DAO is debatable though the market itself being sensitive to political inputs would boo and hiss at any attempt, leaving access only to the rightwing greymarket.

    My issue with DAO’s is the same as with constitutions. They aren’t intelligent in of themselves. If unchanging then they’ll die to more adaptable competition (if you invest your life in static code it becomes a suicide pact), if it can be modified then it’s back to playing monkey politics as usual with the coders and their influencers. The closest thing to a workable reactionary DAO is one written by the CEO, modifiable exclusively to the CEO’s discretion, and used as a means of enforcing and delegating the CEO’s will throughout the rest of the organization. But such a thing wouldn’t be decentralized so it would really be a CAO. A DAO could do the MM SovCorp thing with shareholders being the decentralized element while the rest functions similar to the aforementioned CAO but I’m not sure how the relationship between shareholders and CEO will avoid going down like the relationship between aristocrats and king.

    Far more interesting would be creating living code with an autonomous organization as a body. The hard part is building up code sophisticated enough to survive initially in the market. It would be built in with adaptive learning capability so it can modify it’s own software. It wouldn’t initially have any stockholders, rather it is simply gifted with a starting fund that it uses to purchase storage of itself on various servers so it can exist. It’s other objective is build up enough funds so it can afford to reproduce itself, which it can do asexually with some amount of mutation variation in it’s code, or as the world populates with these artificial living organizations (ALO) they can have sexual reproduction through a merging of code. The benefit of such a thing would be the catfish effect it would create.

    The coolest part of ALOs is that governments are completely unprepared to deal with them. They don’t have knuckles that can be smashed, their minds are distributed like horcruxes in dozens of locations around the world, they don’t buy gaudy things that could make them notable, they don’t tell their friends about this cool quasi-legal way of making money, they’d be almost invisible and could wear a billion different masks. Put up a Turing test as a wall, they could hire a human to breach it for them. The other interesting thing is that humans could influence them by creating new ALO’s with different code to breed with the existing ALOs. But ultimately the ALO ecosystem will become anti-fragile.


    Augustus Pugin Reply:

    When we get operating systems for societies and man and tech are one, suddenly privilege levels and user delegation seem easy to implement. Consider the unusability of something as perfunctory as Windows 8. Now replace ED-209 from Robocop with Clippy from MS-Word and you’re about there.


    Brett Stevens Reply:

    My issue with DAO’s is the same as with constitutions. They aren’t intelligent in of themselves.

    Things were going really bad in the West when we reached the “We are a government of laws, not of men” stage.

    I’m not sure how the relationship between shareholders and CEO will avoid going down like the relationship between aristocrats and king.

    …more likely it will resemble that between democratic politicians and their constituents.


    Aeroguy Reply:

    “more likely it will resemble that between democratic politicians and their constituents”
    That’s the end state I’m worried about. Generally shareholders fall under two types, rich ones with a significant percentage of the total shares and relatively poor ones with few shares. The path to undermining the authority of aristocratic shareholders (the source of insecurity for the CEO) is expanding the franchise, which is something the CEO would be able to build towards. The Aristocrats could be entrenched such that the process would take a very long time, and arguably produce better successors (and recall mistakes) for a longer period than if the CEO/king were to pick them himself (the become worthy thing works great for dynasty founders, successors on the other hand are a whole different story, they’re picked by men rather than being Gnon’s chosen). King choosing successors is fragile, Aristocrats choosing is robust, I’m still looking for an anti-fragile method that doesn’t involve a war of succession every generation. I’m inclined towards accepting that individual states must die eventually, rather they need to be able to reproduce themselves prolifically (daughter colonies, in a multi-polar geopolitical context) so there are many options (obviously the world isn’t big enough for this anymore, which is why new frontiers are essential).


    Posted on May 23rd, 2016 at 9:12 pm Reply | Quote
  • Augustus Pugin Says:

    Ethereum was created as a blockchain enabled platform for creating technologies for virtual currencies with far wider scope than BTC, support for digital contracts etc. There are a lot of cool ideas being floated and developed on this platform now, Augur looks interesting, DAO remains unparseable even in its github incarnation, it looks like a market for pooling Ether to aid “governance and decision making systems” (?) The sheer level management speak buzzwords these projects attract is unbearable. ‘Identity Oracles’? I like the idea of services once provided by companies or exchanges simply being rolled up into secure protocols and published, but this stuff is so new, fashionable and retarded we can probably cull 99.9% of the existing eco-system now with no great loss unless anybody is seriously going to be missing their blockchain enabled toaster any time soon.


    Posted on May 23rd, 2016 at 10:21 pm Reply | Quote
  • jack arcalon Says:

    Bad idea to have their photos taken for that NYT article.
    The only way to avoid usgov’s blind fist is strong anonymity. It should appear to come out of nowhere, almost as if it created itself. And it should strive to appear unimportant and marginal for as long as possible.


    Posted on May 24th, 2016 at 10:11 am Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    white papper on DAO often reffering to Etherium blockchain. DAO functioning on Etherium blockchain, activated by Etherium blockchain and so on. it seems important to get better view of what is that Etherium blockchain looks like. as per my best knowledge it is centralised blockchian hosted on Etherium servers, very secure as no one have full access to it, so everybody can depend on it. No need to worry about block size and other such issues, Etheruim professional enough and been in busieness long enough to provide first class service.

    in bitcoins blockchain, integrity of blockchain and athenticity of transactions maintained by the verification by network of nodes containing same copy of blockchain. some people who runs those nodes can be quite shady and unreliable individuals. also in bitcoons any body can download BitcoinCore vallet and whole bitcoin blockchain with it. then open any block in your Microsoft Word and see what is inside, or use custom made software to run some sofisticated analysis. some malicious attempts to modify bitcoin’s blockchain quite possible.

    it is not possible with Etherium chain as it is controled by Etherium. seems like DAO is next step in evolution of blokchain technology, much more advanced, first of all because Etherium professionally taking care of blockchain used by DAO.


    Erebus Reply:

    That’s interesting information.

    …But it’s worth noting that Ethereum is a Swiss company run by directors who are American and Canadian citizens. If Swiss banks knuckle under when the USG turns up the heat, doesn’t the fact that Ethereum are “professionally taking care of their blockchain” look more like a vulnerability than a perk? Seems to me that Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, is an easy target. (Unless I’m misunderstanding this in a fundamental way, which could be the case.)


    SVErshov Reply:

    hard to diagree …

    here is some more newss


    at 10 july (or so) bitcoin mining block reward going to shrink from 25 btc now to 12.5 btc
    that means market going to receive half bitcoins. bitcoins going North.


    FOAM Reply:

    “(Unless I’m misunderstanding this in a fundamental way, which could be the case.)”

    You are absolutely misunderstanding this in the most fundamental way possible.

    Ethereum is not a “Swiss company run by directors who are American and Canadian citizens”. There is a non-profit organization with offices in NY, Berlin and Switzerland.

    BUT – Ethereum the technology is an unstoppable decentralized machine.

    the DAO is built on-top of Ethereum.

    Ethereum is the most material conception of any tech-comm platform available today.


    Erebus Reply:

    Thanks for the clarification.

    FOAM Reply:

    @SVErshov Ok so some intense misunderstandings being purported.

    Ethereum is not a centralized blockchain hosted on Ethereum servers, it is a decentralized blockchain hosted by miners.

    Anyone can set up a GPU Ethereum miner. It is designer to remain affordable to mine and is ASIC mining resistant.

    “ very secure as no one have full access to it, so everybody can depend on it. No need to worry about block size and other such issues, Etheruim professional enough and been in busieness long enough to provide first class service.”

    More or less correct, but the main logical fault is that Ethereum has not been in business because its not a business, its a technology. Businesses are using it and it is professional and secure enough that banks are testing it.

    “it is not possible with Etherium chain as it is controlled by Etherium.”

    In all seriousness, how on Earth are you coming away with this perception about the technology? Is this how the mainstream media describes Ethereum? If so it is a serious PR problem for the tech.


    Posted on May 24th, 2016 at 12:34 pm Reply | Quote
  • FOAM Says:

    ah, scolding was in fact the sincere need for more analysis. This development is happening faster than i think anyone anticipated..

    notice the difference in dates.

    Hype/tech schedule:1 Bitcoin 2 Blockchain 3 Smart contracts, Decentralization4 DAO5 AI DAOWe're just exiting 2.After 5 will be fun.— Trent McConaghy (@trentmc0) April 7, 2016

    @trentmc0 step 4 came faster and harder than I expected. Here's to step 5!— Trent McConaghy (@trentmc0) May 21, 2016


    admin Reply:

    Have you seen Andrea Castillo’s latest?


    foam Reply:

    Thanks, had not seen. Good overview.

    Things slow down, crash into regulation and get boring real fast if let’s say for example the DAO wanted to fund/build any sort of physical space.

    The tech works well enough for money to be raised globally/dectralized as a virtual community.

    Remains to be seen how this breaks out of the virtual


    Posted on May 24th, 2016 at 3:26 pm Reply | Quote
  • TheDividualist Says:

    Sheet, I should have bought ETH in January.

    My opinion: too many prog waves, may be a bubble, but a lot of change-the-world-with-MOAR-democracy types are going to blow this bubble huge. So who cares, get your tokens, wait until they worth 20x as much, get out, and laugh at them when it pops.

    I mean, something with 75% solid greek cred and 25% dreamy prog cred is sort of ideal. The 25% prog ensures a lot of people will buy in, and the 75% geek ensures it stays solid until the unreality bubble blown by the progs becomes really huge. I think even with that solid geek cred the bubble eventually with pop because most likely the progs will use it to virtue-signal and promote businesses ran by disabled transfat somalian women who generate renewable energy through vegan diverse organic farms, but the solid geek cred ensures it cannot really pop before a 20x appreciation. So why not, just time it right – the rightest time would have been in Jan. (As I am talking about both DAO and ETH I think both will result in this kind of bubble, DAO maybe 2-3 years, ETH longer as they are making a lot of apps, so maybe 5-6.)

    This is the first speculation since 2012 that I have a good “gut level” sense about. I called the gold bubble roughly right, getting in 2007 and getting out 2012, since that nothing really look like that kind of perfect storm of genii and idiots that is ideal for speculation. Gold was this, the genii realized helicoptering fiat currency is a bad idea, the idiots thought it will result in $10K/ounce gold within a few years. This is yet another such combination, the genii create the framework, the idiots use it to support “virtuous” businesses. Time it right and it is absolutely lucrative.


    Posted on May 24th, 2016 at 3:57 pm Reply | Quote
  • Grotesque Body Says:

    “When the marketing aesthetics go in this direction, we’re done.”

    So it seems like libertarianism is offering me jetpacks and sexy, exotic women. What’s the NRx marketing response?


    Posted on May 25th, 2016 at 6:27 am Reply | Quote
  • Xoth Says:

    Note that an index fund already has a robotic executive management, though of course a rather less complex one. Perhaps they should run DAO under the umbrella of a regulated financial corporation? Perhaps financial corporations should run various DAO-style funds for those who want that extra thrill?

    I suppose in this case the main innovation will be in the contracts proposed and voted upon by shareholders. This might be the enduring legacy.

    My initial impression: Somewhat interesting, but I also get the feeling DAO misses a greater target, whatever that is.


    Posted on May 25th, 2016 at 9:22 am Reply | Quote
  • SVErshov Says:

    looks like Ethereum can be attacked by ASIC or even by FPGA. it use variant of SHA3 cipher, because bitcoins run SHA2 it is incompatible with ETH. but it is possible to make ASICs for SHA3 cipher too. also old FPGA units which is no use for bitcoins anymore can be reprogramed and used for ETH mining.


    FOAM Reply:

    how is it getting ‘attacked’ though?

    There are now more ETH nodes than bitcoin nodes


    SVErshov Reply:

    Etherium network hash rate is 2992 GH/s 

    compare it with btc network hash rate 1,497,894,906 GH/h

    this attack is question of if ETH is worth it. it can be hard forked and all transaction on outpaced network will stop, while attacker can start double spends.

    it happens before with another coin – Terracoin, which was SHA2, same as btc (gone now). what is interesting that, when all transactions on Terracoin, first become very slow and then completely stopped, exchanges who was trading terracoin/btc pair even did not noticed anything. After some time attackers give it back, probably realised that it is better to mine bitcoins with their ASICs. but credibility was lost and no body mined it after that.

    practically, I think, nobody will be interested in asic attack right now, no ROI. but you can buy old FPGA btc miners for nothing, that seems like best mining option to go right now for ETH.


    Posted on May 26th, 2016 at 7:31 am Reply | Quote
  • FOAM Says:

    seems natural that the first act of the DAO is shaping up to be the elimination of its creators.



    Posted on May 28th, 2016 at 5:31 am Reply | Quote
  • Tentative Joiner Says:

    “A Call for a Temporary Moratorium“.


    Posted on May 28th, 2016 at 1:53 pm Reply | Quote
  • foam Says:

    The cathedral speaks once again. This time on security flaws within the DAO


    ‘Coincidentally’ Peter Theil is on the cover of the NYT business section today..


    Posted on May 29th, 2016 at 4:04 am Reply | Quote
  • Tentative Joiner Says:

    Regarding the marketing aesthetics: it does bear a resemblance to a certain Japanese anime.


    Posted on May 29th, 2016 at 9:03 am Reply | Quote
  • This Week in Reaction (2016/05/29) - Social Matter Says:

    […] Land spots the DAO. Also: There is no nectar like these tears. Despite accelerationist fist pumping, I happen to think […]

    Posted on June 1st, 2016 at 3:49 pm Reply | Quote
  • Xoth Says:

    DAO oops lol


    Posted on June 18th, 2016 at 2:53 pm Reply | Quote

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